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Compu-Picks: Early 2012 Win Totals

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jul 4, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Early 2012 Preview: Projected Win Totals

Recently, the online sportsbooks 5Dimes and The Greek released projected 2012 win totals for a number of 1-A college football teams. In response to those posted totals, I am going to release preliminary win projections from Compu-Picks for the teams that one or both books have posted, as well as early picks against those two sources. I am also posting my win total projection for one other team, as voted on by my twitter followers. That team is Houston, and is listed at the bottom of the table.

To generate these projections, I have used my current Compu-Picks ratings projections to simulate the entire schedule of all nationwide 1-A games to pick winners in each and every game. I then generated 5,000 such season simulations, and took the average number of wins across all simulations as each team's win projection.

To convert projections into picks against the books, I used the following logic: if the difference between the Compu-Picks projection and the book's win total is less than 0.5, there is no pick; if it's between 0.5 and 1.0, it's 1 unit, and then it scales up every half game to a maximum of 4 units.

Please note that most of the posted win totals lines are shaded to one side or the other; as a simplifying assumption, I have ignored this shading when making picks in this article.


TheGreek 5Dimes
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Clemson ACC 9.7 8.5 Over 2 8.5 Over 2
Florida State ACC 10.4 9.5 Over 1 9.5 Over 1
North Carolina State ACC 6.4 7.5 Under 2 7.5 Under 2
Duke ACC 6.2 3.5 Over 4
Georgia Tech ACC 7.2 8 Under 1 8 Under 1
Miami (Florida) ACC 4.6 7 Under 4 6.5 Under 3
North Carolina ACC 5.0 7.5 Under 4 7.5 Under 4
Virginia ACC 5.4 7 Under 3
Virginia Tech ACC 7.3 9.5 Under 4
Kansas State Big 12 6.3 8 Under 3 8 Under 3
Oklahoma Big 12 10.9 10 Over 1 9.5 Over 2
Oklahoma State Big 12 9.0 7.5 Over 3 7.5 Over 3
Texas Big 12 9.8 9 Over 1 8.5 Over 2
Texas Christian Big 12 8.7 8.5 8.5
West Virginia Big 12 7.6 8.5 Under 1
Cincinnati Big East 7.0 7.5 Under 1 7.5 Under 1
Louisville Big East 8.9 9 9.5 Under 1
Pittsburgh Big East 6.6 7 7
South Florida Big East 7.7 7 Over 1 7.5
Illinois Big Ten 5.2 6 Under 1 6.5 Under 2
Ohio State Big Ten 9.6 9 Over 1 8.5 Over 2
Penn State Big Ten 6.1 7 Under 1 7 Under 1
Wisconsin Big Ten 8.0 9 Under 1
Iowa Big Ten 7.4 7.5 7.5
Michigan Big Ten 9.0 9 9.5 Under 1
Michigan State Big Ten 8.0 8.5 Under 1 8.5 Under 1
Nebraska Big Ten 8.0 8.5 Under 1 8.5 Under 1
TheGreek 5Dimes
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
California Pac-12 4.6 6.5 Under 3 6.5 Under 3
Oregon Pac-12 10.8 10 Over 1 9.5 Over 2
Stanford Pac-12 9.1 7 Over 4 7 Over 4
Washington Pac-12 7.0 8 Under 1
Arizona State Pac-12 2.7 5 Under 4 5 Under 4
Southern California Pac-12 8.7 10.5 Under 3 9.5 Under 1
UCLA Pac-12 8.4 6 Over 4 6 Over 4
Florida SEC 8.5 8 Over 1 7.5 Over 2
Georgia SEC 9.6 9.5 9.5
Kentucky SEC 4.1 5.5 Under 2
Missouri SEC 7.3 7 7.5
South Carolina SEC 7.4 9 Under 3 8.5 Under 2
Tennessee SEC 6.2 7 Under 1 6.5
Vanderbilt SEC 7.6 6.5 Over 2
Alabama SEC 10.4 10 10
Arkansas SEC 7.4 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2
Auburn SEC 7.7 7.5 7.5
Louisiana State SEC 8.6 10 Under 2 10.5 Under 3
Mississippi SEC 4.3 5.5 Under 2
Mississippi State SEC 7.7 7.5
Texas A&M SEC 5.8 7 Under 2 7.5 Under 3
Central Florida C-USA 6.9 8.5 Under 3
Marshall C-USA 5.8 6.5 Under 1
Brigham Young Indep 9.3 8 Over 2 8 Over 2
Notre Dame Indep 7.1 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2
Boise State Mountain West 8.8 9.5 Under 1 9.5 Under 1
Houston C-USA 8.3 N/A N/A

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this preseason projection model:

1) This model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc.

2) There is a substantial amount of noise in these projections, which is to be expected given the large number of unknowns (who will have good and bad luck with injuries, which young players will improve and which won't, how specific matchups will come into play, etc.). I also don't yet have all the relevant inputs, such as prior year injuries (Phil Steele has posted the most/least injuries list but not the entire list for all 1-A teams), a few other inputs, and basically all injuries, dismissals and suspensions that have taken place during the offseason.

3) I also haven't finalized the model for 2012 yet, so there are likely going to be some methodological adjustments to be made before the final version is out.

4) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

5) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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