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Compu-Picks: Early 2012 Win Totals

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jul 21, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Early 2012 Preview: Projected Win Totals - Expanded Version

Recently, the online sportsbook 5Dimes released projected 2012 win totals for all 124 1-A college football teams. In response to those posted totals, I am going to release preliminary win projections from Compu-Picks for all of these teams, except for the four 1-A newcomers (the projection for those four are still shaky and need more time to tweak), as well as early picks against those lines. These totals correspond to the Compu-Picks totals previously released in early July; this is simply an expanded list of the same simulations.

As I did in the previous list, to generate these projections, I have used my current Compu-Picks ratings projections to simulate the entire schedule of all nationwide 1-A games to pick winners in each and every game. I then generated 5,000 such season simulations, and took the average number of wins across all simulations as each team's win projection.

To convert projections into picks against the books, I used the following logic: if the difference between the Compu-Picks projection and the book's win total is less than 0.5, there is no pick; if it's between 0.5 and 1.0, it's 1 unit, and then it scales up every half game to a maximum of 4 units.

Please note that most of the posted win totals lines are shaded to one side or the other; as a simplifying assumption, I have ignored this shading when making picks in this article.


5Dimes July 17th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units
Boston College ACC 7.84 5.5 Over 4
Clemson ACC 9.71 8.5 Over 2
Florida State ACC 10.35 9.5 Over 1
Maryland ACC 4.07 4.5
North Carolina State ACC 6.41 7.5 Under 2
Wake Forest ACC 4.74 5.5 Under 1
Duke ACC 6.19 3.5 Over 4
Georgia Tech ACC 7.18 8 Under 1
Miami (Florida) ACC 4.58 7 Under 4
North Carolina ACC 4.98 7.5 Under 4
Virginia ACC 5.41 7 Under 3
Virginia Tech ACC 7.32 9.5 Under 4
Baylor Big 12 5.80 6.5 Under 1
Iowa State Big 12 4.23 4.5
Kansas Big 12 2.94 3.5 Under 1
Kansas State Big 12 6.32 8 Under 3
Oklahoma Big 12 10.86 10 Over 1
Oklahoma State Big 12 9.03 7.5 Over 3
Texas Big 12 9.77 9 Over 1
Texas Christian Big 12 8.70 8.5
Texas Tech Big 12 6.04 6.5
West Virginia Big 12 7.56 8.5 Under 1
5Dimes July 17th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units
Cincinnati Big East 6.96 7.5 Under 1
Connecticut Big East 6.02 5.5 Over 1
Louisville Big East 8.87 9
Pittsburgh Big East 6.61 7
Rutgers Big East 8.11 7.5 Over 1
South Florida Big East 7.70 7.5
Syracuse Big East 4.44 5.5 Under 2
Temple Big East 4.48 4.5
Illinois Big Ten 5.21 6.5 Under 2
Indiana Big Ten 4.53 3.5 Over 2
Ohio State Big Ten 9.64 9 Over 1
Penn State Big Ten 6.06 7 Under 1
Purdue Big Ten 6.09 6.5
Wisconsin Big Ten 8.04 9 Under 1
Iowa Big Ten 7.38 7.5
Michigan Big Ten 8.96 9
Michigan State Big Ten 8.00 8.5 Under 1
Minnesota Big Ten 4.97 5.5 Under 1
Nebraska Big Ten 7.97 8.5 Under 1
Northwestern Big Ten 5.37 6.5 Under 2
5Dimes July 17th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units
California Pac-12 4.56 6.5 Under 3
Oregon Pac-12 10.78 10 Over 1
Oregon State Pac-12 6.23 4.5 Over 3
Stanford Pac-12 9.15 7 Over 4
Washington Pac-12 7.03 7.5
Washington State Pac-12 4.39 5.5 Under 2
Arizona Pac-12 3.61 5.5 Under 3
Arizona State Pac-12 2.68 5 Under 4
Colorado Pac-12 4.41 3.5 Over 1
Southern California Pac-12 8.73 10 Under 2
UCLA Pac-12 8.35 6 Over 4
Utah Pac-12 8.92 7.5 Over 2
Florida SEC 8.53 8 Over 1
Georgia SEC 9.64 9.5
Kentucky SEC 4.09 5.5 Under 2
Missouri SEC 7.34 7
South Carolina SEC 7.40 8.5 Under 2
Tennessee SEC 6.18 7 Under 1
Vanderbilt SEC 7.61 6.5 Over 2
Alabama SEC 10.39 10
Arkansas SEC 7.43 8.5 Under 2
Auburn SEC 7.71 7.5
Louisiana State SEC 8.63 10 Under 2
Mississippi SEC 4.31 5.5 Under 2
Mississippi State SEC 7.74 7.5
Texas A&M SEC 5.80 7 Under 2
5Dimes July 17th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 2.52 3.5 Under 1
Central Florida C-USA 6.89 8.5 Under 3
East Carolina C-USA 7.08 5.5 Over 3
Houston C-USA 8.27 9.5 Under 2
Marshall C-USA 5.79 6.5 Under 1
Memphis C-USA 3.13 2.5 Over 1
Rice C-USA 3.69 3.5
Southern Methodist C-USA 6.26 6.5
Southern Mississippi C-USA 7.51 8.5 Under 1
Texas-El Paso C-USA 3.62 4.5 Under 1
Tulane C-USA 4.76 2.5 Over 4
Tulsa C-USA 8.72 7.5 Over 2
Army Indep 6.71 5.5 Over 2
Brigham Young Indep 9.27 8 Over 2
Navy Indep 6.85 6.5
Notre Dame Indep 7.06 8.5 Under 2
Akron MAC 1.54 2.5 Under 1
Ball State MAC 4.79 5.5 Under 1
Bowling Green MAC 7.73 7.5
Buffalo MAC 3.24 4.5 Under 2
Central Michigan MAC 6.86 4.5 Over 4
Eastern Michigan MAC 5.00 5.5 Under 1
Kent MAC 5.71 5.5
Miami (Ohio) MAC 7.25 5.5 Over 3
Northern Illinois MAC 7.76 8.5 Under 1
Ohio MAC 7.91 9.5 Under 3
Toledo MAC 6.91 7.5 Under 1
Western Michigan MAC 7.31 8.5 Under 2
5Dimes July 17th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units
Air Force Mountain West 7.00 5.5 Over 2
Boise State Mountain West 8.82 9.5 Under 1
Colorado State Mountain West 5.89 6.5 Under 1
Fresno State Mountain West 6.61 7.5 Under 1
Hawaii Mountain West 5.79 4.5 Over 2
Nevada Mountain West 5.92 7.5 Under 3
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 3.36 4.5 Under 2
New Mexico Mountain West 3.15 2.5 Over 1
San Diego State Mountain West 6.56 5.5 Over 2
Wyoming Mountain West 6.83 5.5 Over 2
Arkansas State Sun Belt 6.94 8.5 Under 3
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 2.74 3.5 Under 1
Florida International Sun Belt 6.90 7.5 Under 1
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 7.11 7.5
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 5.73 4.5 Over 2
Middle Tennessee State Sun Belt 3.82 4.5 Under 1
North Texas Sun Belt 4.11 5.5 Under 2
Troy Sun Belt 6.80 5.5 Over 2
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 6.92 6.5
Idaho WAC 3.37 4.5 Under 2
Louisiana Tech WAC 9.62 8.5 Over 2
New Mexico State WAC 2.59 5.5 Under 4
San Jose State WAC 4.82 5.5 Under 1
Utah State WAC 7.08 7.5

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this preseason projection model:

1) This model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc.

2) There is a substantial amount of noise in these projections, which is to be expected given the large number of unknowns (who will have good and bad luck with injuries, which young players will improve and which won't, how specific matchups will come into play, etc.). I also don't yet have all the relevant inputs, such as prior year injuries (as of when the simulations were run Phil Steele had posted the most/least injuries list but not the entire list for all 1-A teams), a few other inputs, and basically all injuries, dismissals and suspensions that have taken place during the offseason.

3) I also haven't finalized the model for 2012 yet, so there are likely going to be some methodological adjustments to be made before the final version is out.

4) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

5) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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