Compu-Picks 2012 Preview: Big 12

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Aug 26, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Previews Each 1-A League: Big 12

Below is the preview for the Big 12, consisting of five tables. The first shows projections for each Big 12 team, with the others showing key statistics and/or details behind the projections.

Projected ranking and expected results

Expected Wins Projected League Results
Team 2012 Rank 2011 Rank All Games League Games SOS League Finish League Odds
Oklahoma 3 5 10.50 7.61 23 1 39.7%
Texas 4 20 10.41 7.47 27 2 33.9%
Texas Christian 9 17 9.10 6.22 25 3 13.1%
Oklahoma State 20 3 8.03 5.24 20 4 5.2%
West Virginia 21 26 8.09 5.19 18 5 4.9%
Kansas State 35 14 6.48 3.78 15 6 1.1%
Texas Tech 46 58 5.91 3.02 37 7 1.0%
Baylor 47 18 5.34 2.90 13 8 0.8%
Iowa State 61 53 3.72 2.18 3 9 0.2%
Kansas 82 98 3.25 1.39 12 10 0.1%

Some notes and comments about the Big 12 and its teams:

1) The Big 12 season comes down to October 13th in Dallas. Oklahoma St had a great season last year, TCU has enough talent to potentially play spoiler, and West Virginia is dangerous, but we're back to normal here: October 13th is THE key game in the league once again.
Oklahoma looks like a national elite, coming off a much stronger than it looked 10-3 campaign, with great recruting numbers (including a great trend), and a lot of returning talent across the board. Meanwhile, Texas has even more returning production, has the #1 recruiting average AND the #1 recruting trend IN THE COUNTRY, and in almost every way looks to continue their upward trend after last year's disapointing season and 2010's disaster.

2) That said, TCU is loaded. They've been a consistently strong program for years, their recruiting has really taken off of late, they return an enormous amount of offensive production (though less on defense), and there's really nothing to indicate that they won't continue to be a very strong team that's capable of beating almost anyone on the right day. They'll have a clear step up in competition this year, but they seem plenty capable of handling it and representing themselves very well.

3) Oklahoma St loses their stars, but there's plenty of rising talent on the way to replace their production. A step back from last year's amazing run is almost inevitable, but this is still a very solid team that should remain a pretty tough out.

4) West Virginia is the last of the projected upper-division Big 12 teams. They retun a boatload of offensive production (especially useful since this was an offense-first team last year), and while they definitely will have to deal with a tougher schedule, this remains a strong program and should be very fun to watch.

5) Kansas St is one of the few teams I look at and really think that Compu-Picks may be underestimating them. The awful numbers of the Ron Prince era are still impacting the projections, Kansas St recruits quite a bit from the juco pool (which the scout.com numbers don't seem to account for), and it's at least possible that they really are fundamentally better in close game / clutch situations due to Bill Snyder's abilities than the numbers can account for. Another 10-win regular season is pretty unlikely, but I personally think that about 6 and a half is too low.

The next two tables show key statistics and details underlying the projections, from prior history and performance to luck-related statistics to key indicators of incoming and outgoing talent. Below is a brief explanation of some of these items:


Rank - Projected 2012 ranking, from 1 to 124
2011 Rank - 2011 ranking using the current compu-picks model, from 1 to 120 (does NOT include the four 1-A newcomers)
Prev 4 yr - ranking of the average rating from 2007-2010, from 1 to 120 (does NOT include the four 1-A newcomers)
Injuries - starts lost to injury during the 2011 season, from Phil Steele
Fumble Luck - the number of net turnovers in 2011 due to fumble luck
Recruit Rank - ranking of past 4 years of recruiting (each year equally weighted), from scout.com
Recruit Trend - the difference between the past 3 years of recruiting and the previous 4, ranked from best to worst
Starters - returning offensive / defensive / special teams (kicker and punter) starters, per Phil Steele magazine (* if the QB returns), with some edits due to subsequent news
Returning Yards, Tackles, Int, Sacks, Lettermen - returning production and roster depth; lettermen taken from philsteele.com, with the other stats calculated from cfbstats.com.
Draft Losses - based on the 2012 draft

Key Statistics - Performance, Luck and Coaching

Team 2012 Rank 2011 Rank Prev 4 yr Injuries Turnovers Fumble Luck New Coach
Oklahoma 3 5 6 29 -2 -2.5 .
Texas 4 20 10 15 0 2 .
Texas Christian 9 17 3 22 2 1 .
Oklahoma State 20 3 12 27 21 4 .
West Virginia 21 26 34 14 1 -1.5 .
Kansas State 35 14 64 25 12 1.5 .
Texas Tech 46 58 19 38 1 1 .
Baylor 47 18 65 10 5 2 .
Iowa State 61 53 81 21 -11 -0.5 .
Kansas 82 98 68 8 -5 3.5 1

Talent Inflows and Outflows

Team Recruit Rank Recruit Trend Starters Ret. Yards Ret. Tackles Ret. Int Ret. Sacks Ret. Lettermen Draft Losses
Oklahoma 7 5 8*/7/2 77% 66% 67% 63% 70% 30
Texas 1 1 9*/6/0 84% 57% 83% 76% 68% 7
Texas Christian 45 3 6*/5/0 82% 51% 30% 68% 66% 4
Oklahoma State 26 14 4/8/2 34% 79% 75% 45% 71% 31
West Virginia 31 96 8*/6/2 89% 59% 57% 33% 67% 19
Kansas State 87 113 8*/6/2 94% 59% 61% 69% 67% 1
Texas Tech 25 11 8*/9/1 86% 76% 80% 50% 67% 0
Baylor 44 26 6/8/2 31% 74% 75% 24% 77% 41
Iowa State 73 79 7*/5/1 85% 65% 55% 44% 67% 9
Kansas 62 99 7/7/1 50% 61% 63% 89% 70% 0

The next two tables show probability distributions for the projections, based on 5,001 season simulation runs. Please note that a . indicates zero odds, while 0% indicates a non-zero probability that just rounds to 0%. The first table breaks down results across all games, while the second breaks down results across league games only.

Projected Results - All Games

Odds of Winning _ Games
Team E(wins) Stdev (wins) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Oklahoma 10.50 1.51 . 29% 31% 20% 11% 5% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% . .
Texas 10.41 1.50 . 24% 33% 22% 12% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% .
Texas Christian 9.10 1.86 . 8% 15% 22% 22% 15% 9% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Oklahoma State 8.03 2.11 . 3% 7% 16% 18% 20% 15% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0%
West Virginia 8.09 1.94 . 3% 7% 14% 20% 21% 16% 9% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Kansas State 6.48 2.00 . 1% 2% 4% 9% 15% 20% 19% 15% 9% 4% 2% 1% 0%
Texas Tech 5.91 1.92 . 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% 16% 21% 20% 14% 7% 2% 1% 0%
Baylor 5.34 2.19 . 0% 1% 2% 4% 8% 12% 17% 20% 15% 11% 6% 3% 1%
Iowa State 3.72 2.04 . 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 5% 9% 14% 18% 19% 16% 11% 3%
Kansas 3.25 1.87 . 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 10% 17% 24% 23% 12% 4%

Projected Results - League Games

Odds of Winning _ League Games
Team E(wins) Stdev (wins) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Oklahoma 7.61 1.38 30% 32% 20% 11% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% .
Texas 7.47 1.40 25% 33% 22% 11% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Texas Christian 6.22 1.72 8% 16% 23% 22% 15% 9% 4% 2% 1% 0%
Oklahoma State 5.24 1.89 3% 8% 16% 20% 20% 15% 9% 5% 2% 1%
West Virginia 5.19 1.81 3% 7% 14% 21% 22% 16% 9% 5% 2% 1%
Kansas State 3.78 1.75 1% 2% 4% 9% 17% 22% 21% 14% 7% 2%
Texas Tech 3.02 1.81 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% 17% 22% 21% 15% 6%
Baylor 2.90 1.79 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% 15% 21% 23% 15% 7%
Iowa State 2.18 1.61 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 12% 19% 24% 21% 16%
Kansas 1.39 1.41 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 19% 32% 31%

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

4) I have provided adjusted division (or league) odds in a couple of instances. For the Big Ten Leaders, it shows the odds of each team winning adjusting for the fact that Ohio St and Penn St will both be ineligible. The same is true for the ACC Coastal and North Carolina.

5) There is a substantial amount of noise in these projections, which is to be expected given the large number of unknowns (who will have good and bad luck with injuries, which young players will improve and which won't, how specific matchups will come into play, etc.). Right now the standard error is a bit over 0.2 on a scale of about -1 to +1. It's important to look at the projections with this in mind to get a sense of how material the projected differences are. Given a standard error around 0.2, it is safe to project Alabama to be a much better team than Mississippi St, but it is not safe to project Mississippi St to be any better than Arkansas, much less a lot better.

6) At this point, there are a number of model features that need to be investigated further. Chief among these is the distribution of extreme events. It appears that the model may be overstating the probabilities of extreme events, such as 12-0 or 0-12 records, or major underdogs winning their division/league. This overstatement has been reduced compared to last year's projections, but still likely exists to some degree. Please keep this in mind when looking at the distribution of win probabilities.

7) Since there is much less data available for the four 1-A newcomers, the power rating methodology has been more manual and arbitrary. As a consequence, I am somewhat less confident of the projections for those four teams than I am for the other 120 1-A members. Please keep this in mind when looking at the newcomers' projections.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

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