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Compu-Picks: Final 2012 Win Totals

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Aug 26, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Preview: Final Win Total Picks Against the Lines

This article is an update to the preliminary win totals posted in July. In this update, I am comparing the final Compu-Picks win projections to the latest win totals from TheGreek, Bovada and 5Dimes.

Please note that for a number of teams, 5Dimes showed multiple win totals at varying juice amounts. For this article, I have selected the win totals that had juice totals closest to even between over and under. Also, for some reason, there wasn't an LSU win total on 5Dimes, though they did have totals for all other 123 1-A teams.

These totals correspond to the final win totals released yesterday in the league by league previews.

To generate these projections, I have used my current Compu-Picks ratings projections to simulate the entire schedule of all nationwide 1-A games to pick winners in each and every game. I then generated 5,001 such season simulations, and took the average number of wins across all simulations as each team's win projection.

To convert projections into picks against the books, I used the following logic: if the difference between the Compu-Picks projection and the book's win total is less than 0.5, there is no pick; if it's between 0.5 and 1.0, it's 1 unit, and then it scales up every half game to a maximum of 4 units.

Please note that most of the posted win totals lines are shaded to one side or the other; as a simplifying assumption, I have ignored this shading when making picks in this article.


TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Boston College ACC 7.74 5.5 Over 4 5.5 Over 4
Clemson ACC 8.81 8.5 8.5 8.5
Florida State ACC 10.59 9.5 Over 2 10 Over 1 10 Over 1
Maryland ACC 3.42 4.5 Under 2 4.5 Under 2
North Carolina State ACC 5.92 7.5 Under 3
Wake Forest ACC 4.89 5.5 Under 1
Duke ACC 5.76 3.5 Over 4 3.5 Over 4
Georgia Tech ACC 7.89 8 8 7.5
Miami (Florida) ACC 5.23 7 Under 3 7 Under 3 6.5 Under 2
North Carolina ACC 4.95 7.5 Under 4 7.5 Under 4 8 Under 4
Virginia ACC 4.85 7 Under 4 6.5 Under 3 6.5 Under 3
Virginia Tech ACC 7.85 9.5 Under 3 9 Under 2 9 Under 2
Baylor Big 12 5.34 6.5 Under 2
Iowa State Big 12 3.72 4.5 Under 1
Kansas Big 12 3.25 3.5 3.5
Kansas State Big 12 6.48 8 Under 3 7.5 Under 2 7.5 Under 2
Oklahoma Big 12 10.50 10 Over 1 10 Over 1 9.5 Over 2
Oklahoma State Big 12 8.03 8 8.5 8.5
Texas Christian Big 12 9.10 8.5 Over 1 8 Over 2 8 Over 2
Texas Big 12 10.41 9 Over 2 9 Over 2 9 Over 2
Texas Tech Big 12 5.91 6.5 Under 1 6.5 Under 1
West Virginia Big 12 8.09 8.5 8.5 8.5
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Illinois Big Ten 5.54 6.5 Under 1 6.5 Under 1 6.5 Under 1
Indiana Big Ten 4.25 3.5 Over 1
Ohio State Big Ten 10.37 9 Over 2 9.5 Over 1 9.5 Over 1
Penn State Big Ten 4.24 5.5 Under 2 5.5 Under 2
Purdue Big Ten 6.49 6.5
Wisconsin Big Ten 7.93 9 Under 2 9.5 Under 3 9.5 Under 3
Iowa Big Ten 8.27 7.5 Over 1 7.5 Over 1 7.5 Over 1
Michigan Big Ten 8.98 9 9 8.5
Michigan State Big Ten 7.41 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2
Minnesota Big Ten 5.06 5.5
Nebraska Big Ten 8.42 8.5 8.5 9 Under 1
Northwestern Big Ten 5.15 6.5 Under 2
Notre Dame Indep 6.62 8.5 Under 3 8 Under 2 7.5 Under 1
California Pac-12 4.33 6.5 Under 4 6.5 Under 4 6.5 Under 4
Oregon Pac-12 11.36 10 Over 2 10.5 Over 1 10.5 Over 1
Oregon State Pac-12 6.10 4.5 Over 3 4.5 Over 3
Stanford Pac-12 9.07 7 Over 4 7.5 Over 3 7.5 Over 3
Washington Pac-12 7.22 7.5 7 7
Washington State Pac-12 4.38 5.5 Under 2 5.5 Under 2
Arizona Pac-12 3.64 5.5 Under 3
Arizona State Pac-12 3.34 5 Under 3 5 Under 3 5 Under 3
Colorado Pac-12 2.59 3.5 Under 1
UCLA Pac-12 8.33 6 Over 4 6 Over 4 6.5 Over 3
Southern California Pac-12 8.75 10.5 Under 3 10.5 Under 3 10.5 Under 3
Utah Pac-12 9.35 7.5 Over 3
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Florida SEC 9.19 8 Over 2 8 Over 2 8 Over 2
Georgia SEC 9.00 9.5 Under 1 9.5 Under 1 9.5 Under 1
Kentucky SEC 3.48 5.5 Under 4 5.5 Under 4
Missouri SEC 7.40 7 7 7
South Carolina SEC 8.03 8.5 8.5 8.5
Tennessee SEC 5.91 7 Under 2 7.5 Under 3 7.5 Under 3
Vanderbilt SEC 7.55 6.5 Over 2 6.5 Over 2
Alabama SEC 10.28 10.5 10.5 10.5
Arkansas SEC 7.02 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2 8.5 Under 2
Auburn SEC 8.69 7.5 Over 2 7.5 Over 2 7 Over 3
Louisiana State SEC 8.80 10 Under 2 10 Under 2
Mississippi SEC 3.57 5.5 Under 3 5.5 Under 3
Mississippi State SEC 8.81 7.5 Over 2 7.5 Over 2
Texas A&M SEC 5.79 7 Under 2 7 Under 2 6.5 Under 1
Cincinnati Big East 7.89 7.5 7.5 7.5
Connecticut Big East 5.59 5.5
Louisville Big East 7.93 9 Under 2 9 Under 2 8.5 Under 1
Pittsburgh Big East 7.07 7 7 7
Rutgers Big East 8.68 7.5 Over 2
South Florida Big East 7.72 7.5 7.5 8
Syracuse Big East 3.76 5.5 Under 3 5.5 Under 3
Temple Big East 6.10 4.5 Over 3
Army Indep 6.14 5.5 Over 1 5.5 Over 1
Brigham Young Indep 9.61 8 Over 3 8 Over 3 8.5 Over 2
Navy Indep 7.48 6.5 Over 1 6.5 Over 1
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Air Force Mountain West 7.77 5.5 Over 4
Boise State Mountain West 9.40 9.5 9.5 9.5
Colorado State Mountain West 4.87 6.5 Under 3
Fresno State Mountain West 6.37 7.5 Under 2
Hawaii Mountain West 6.23 4.5 Over 3 4.5 Over 3
Nevada Mountain West 5.15 7.5 Under 4
New Mexico Mountain West 2.57 2.5
San Diego State Mountain West 6.84 5.5 Over 2
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 2.89 4.5 Under 3
Wyoming Mountain West 6.66 5.5 Over 2
Central Florida C-USA 7.68 8.5 Under 1 8.5 Under 1 8.5 Under 1
East Carolina C-USA 6.65 5.5 Over 2
Houston C-USA 7.04 9.5 Under 4
Marshall C-USA 5.22 6.5 Under 2 6.5 Under 2
Memphis C-USA 1.96 2.5 Under 1
Rice C-USA 5.14 3.5 Over 3
Southern Methodist C-USA 5.75 6.5 Under 1
Southern Mississippi C-USA 7.55 8.5 Under 1
Tulane C-USA 4.61 2.5 Over 4
Tulsa C-USA 9.07 7.5 Over 3
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 2.55 3.5 Under 1
Texas-El Paso C-USA 3.93 4.5 Under 1
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Compu-Picks Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
UMass MAC 2.28 1.5 Over 1
Akron MAC 1.08 2.5 Under 2
Ball State MAC 4.37 5.5 Under 2
Bowling Green MAC 7.22 7.5
Buffalo MAC 3.11 4.5 Under 2
Central Michigan MAC 6.80 4.5 Over 4
Eastern Michigan MAC 4.33 5.5 Under 2
Kent MAC 5.81 5.5
Miami (Ohio) MAC 7.14 5.5 Over 3
Northern Illinois MAC 8.73 8.5
Ohio MAC 8.20 9.5 Under 2
Toledo MAC 7.62 7.5
Western Michigan MAC 5.85 8.5 Under 4
Arkansas State Sun Belt 7.09 8.5 Under 2
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 7.06 7.5
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 5.30 4.5 Over 1
Middle Tennessee State Sun Belt 3.30 4.5 Under 2
North Texas Sun Belt 4.81 5.5 Under 1
Troy Sun Belt 5.93 5.5
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 3.23 3.5
Florida International Sun Belt 7.13 7.5
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7.41 6.5 Over 1
South Alabama Sun Belt 2.87 2.5
Idaho WAC 4.09 4.5
Louisiana Tech WAC 9.36 8.5 Over 1
New Mexico State WAC 2.09 5.5 Under 4
San Jose State WAC 4.80 5.5 Under 1
Utah State WAC 6.99 7.5 Under 1
Texas St WAC 3.59 4.5 Under 1
UTSA WAC 3.58 2.5 Over 2

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this preseason projection model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

4) There is a substantial amount of noise in these projections, which is to be expected given the large number of unknowns (who will have good and bad luck with injuries, which young players will improve and which won't, how specific matchups will come into play, etc.). Right now the standard error is a bit over 0.2 on a scale of about -1 to +1. It's important to look at the projections with this in mind to get a sense of how material the projected differences are. Given a standard error around 0.2, it is safe to project Alabama to be a much better team than Mississippi St, but it is not safe to project Mississippi St to be any better than Arkansas, much less a lot better.

5) Since there is much less data available for the four 1-A newcomers, the power rating methodology has been more manual and arbitrary. As a consequence, I am somewhat less confident of the projections for those four teams than I am for the other 120 1-A members. Please keep this in mind when looking at the newcomers' projections.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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