Compu-Picks 2012 Preview: Game Picks

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Aug 28, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Picks Each 1-A Game and Provides Win Odds

Below is a table showing every 1-A vs 1-A game, who Compu-Picks projects as the winner, and what are the projected win odds based on 5,001 simulations (the extra single run was to avoid projected ties).

Projected ranking and expected results

Week Team1 Team2 Projected Winner Win Odds
1 Alabama Michigan Alabama 72.2%
1 Arkansas State Oregon Oregon 99.2%
1 Auburn Clemson Auburn 60.4%
1 Boise State Michigan State Michigan State 61.2%
1 Bowling Green State Florida Florida 96.9%
1 Buffalo Georgia Georgia 99.1%
1 Central Florida Akron Central Florida 95.8%
1 Colorado Colorado State Colorado 50.7%
1 Eastern Michigan Ball State Ball State 66.6%
1 Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 62.4%
1 Hawaii Southern California Southern California 96.8%
1 Iowa Northern Illinois Iowa 65.4%
1 Kentucky Louisville Louisville 78.1%
1 Marshall West Virginia West Virginia 94.4%
1 Miami (Florida) Boston College Boston College 76.1%
1 Miami (Ohio) Ohio State Ohio State 94.8%
1 Minnesota Nevada-Las Vegas Minnesota 81.0%
1 Navy Notre Dame Notre Dame 86.1%
1 North Carolina State Tennessee Tennessee 70.2%
1 Nevada California California 80.6%
1 North Texas Louisiana State Louisiana State 99.1%
1 Northwestern Syracuse Northwestern 52.9%
1 Ohio Penn State Penn State 55.4%
1 Oklahoma Texas-El Paso Oklahoma 98.3%
1 Rutgers Tulane Rutgers 87.7%
1 San Diego State Washington Washington 88.5%
1 San Jose State Stanford Stanford 99.1%
1 Southern Methodist Baylor Baylor 75.2%
1 South Carolina Vanderbilt South Carolina 54.5%
1 Southern Mississippi Nebraska Nebraska 86.0%
1 Texas A&M Louisiana Tech Texas A&M 56.1%
1 Toledo Arizona Toledo 51.5%
1 Troy State Alabama-Birmingham Troy State 75.6%
1 Tulsa Iowa State Tulsa 60.6%
1 UCLA Rice UCLA 85.1%
1 Washington State Brigham Young Brigham Young 93.2%
1 Western Michigan Illinois Illinois 71.0%
1 Wyoming Texas Texas 98.9%
1 Florida International Duke Duke 64.5%
1 UMass Connecticut Connecticut 90.8%
1 Texas St Houston Houston 92.1%
1 UTSA South Alabama South Alabama 63.2%
2 Air Force Michigan Michigan 95.2%
2 Akron Florida International Florida International 96.7%
2 Army San Diego State San Diego State 52.8%
2 Auburn Mississippi State Auburn 52.4%
2 Ball State Clemson Clemson 95.4%
2 Central Florida Ohio State Ohio State 92.6%
2 Duke Stanford Stanford 93.3%
2 East Carolina South Carolina South Carolina 93.8%
2 Florida Texas A&M Florida 77.0%
2 Fresno State Oregon Oregon 99.1%
2 Georgia Missouri Georgia 54.9%
2 Idaho Bowling Green State Bowling Green State 86.6%
2 Illinois Arizona State Illinois 52.4%
2 Indiana UMass Indiana 74.2%
2 Iowa State Iowa Iowa 80.1%
2 Kent Kentucky Kentucky 71.0%
2 Louisiana-Lafayette Troy State Louisiana-Lafayette 53.9%
2 Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas Arkansas 92.9%
2 Louisiana Tech Houston Louisiana Tech 58.0%
2 Maryland Temple Temple 78.4%
2 Memphis Arkansas State Arkansas State 94.2%
2 Miami (Florida) Kansas State Kansas State 77.0%
2 Michigan State Central Michigan Michigan State 77.0%
2 North Carolina State Connecticut Connecticut 55.7%
2 Nebraska UCLA UCLA 51.4%
2 New Mexico Texas Texas 100.0%
2 New Mexico State Ohio Ohio 95.6%
2 Oklahoma State Arizona Oklahoma State 88.8%
2 Penn State Virginia Virginia 55.3%
2 Pittsburgh Cincinnati Cincinnati 59.7%
2 Purdue Notre Dame Notre Dame 78.9%
2 Rice Kansas Kansas 68.9%
2 South Florida Nevada South Florida 84.8%
2 Texas Tech Texas St Texas Tech 94.0%
2 Toledo Wyoming Toledo 51.1%
2 Tulane Tulsa Tulsa 91.4%
2 North Carolina Wake Forest Wake Forest 68.0%
2 Southern California Syracuse Southern California 91.0%
2 Utah Utah State Utah 89.5%
2 Texas-El Paso Mississippi Mississippi 78.7%
2 Vanderbilt Northwestern Vanderbilt 75.3%
2 Washington Louisiana State Louisiana State 83.3%
2 Wisconsin Oregon State Oregon State 54.7%
2 Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee State Middle Tennessee State 51.9%
2 Western Kentucky Alabama Alabama 97.5%
3 Alabama Arkansas Alabama 79.8%
3 Arizona State Missouri Missouri 95.4%
3 Arkansas State Nebraska Nebraska 91.5%
3 Ball State Indiana Indiana 55.9%
3 Boston College Northwestern Boston College 73.8%
3 Bowling Green State Toledo Toledo 60.7%
3 Brigham Young Utah Utah 55.0%
3 California Ohio State Ohio State 94.7%
3 Colorado Fresno State Fresno State 80.1%
3 Colorado State San Jose State San Jose State 59.5%
3 Connecticut Maryland Connecticut 57.2%
3 East Carolina Southern Mississippi Southern Mississippi 76.1%
3 Eastern Michigan Purdue Purdue 81.6%
3 Florida Tennessee Florida 78.1%
3 Houston UCLA UCLA 88.6%
3 Idaho Louisiana State Louisiana State 99.7%
3 Louisiana-Lafayette Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 90.6%
3 Louisiana-Monroe Auburn Auburn 97.4%
3 Miami (Ohio) Boise State Boise State 83.5%
3 Middle Tennessee State Memphis Middle Tennessee State 54.5%
3 Mississippi State Troy State Mississippi State 91.1%
3 Navy Penn State Navy 50.6%
3 New Mexico Texas Tech Texas Tech 97.7%
3 New Mexico State Texas-El Paso Texas-El Paso 92.1%
3 North Texas Kansas State Kansas State 93.1%
3 Northern Illinois Army Northern Illinois 54.3%
3 Notre Dame Michigan State Michigan State 53.7%
3 Ohio Marshall Ohio 51.1%
3 Rice Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 82.1%
3 Rutgers South Florida Rutgers 51.1%
3 Texas Christian Kansas Texas Christian 93.4%
3 Texas Mississippi Texas 94.6%
3 Texas A&M Southern Methodist Texas A&M 70.9%
3 Alabama-Birmingham South Carolina South Carolina 99.2%
3 North Carolina Louisville Louisville 87.2%
3 Southern California Stanford Stanford 59.8%
3 Utah State Wisconsin Wisconsin 87.5%
3 Virginia Georgia Tech Georgia Tech 88.2%
3 Virginia Tech Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 63.3%
3 Wake Forest Florida State Florida State 97.7%
3 Washington State Nevada-Las Vegas Washington State 81.8%
3 Western Michigan Minnesota Minnesota 67.9%
3 Florida Atlantic Georgia Georgia 99.3%
3 Florida International Central Florida Central Florida 68.4%
3 Western Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky 52.4%
3 UMass Michigan Michigan 99.6%
3 South Alabama North Carolina State North Carolina State 92.9%
4 Air Force Nevada-Las Vegas Air Force 84.4%
4 Akron Tennessee Tennessee 99.1%
4 Arizona Oregon Oregon 99.6%
4 Army Wake Forest Wake Forest 59.4%
4 Baylor Louisiana-Monroe Baylor 71.4%
4 Bowling Green State Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 91.7%
4 Brigham Young Boise State Brigham Young 57.2%
4 California Southern California Southern California 90.5%
4 Central Michigan Iowa Iowa 83.8%
4 Clemson Florida State Florida State 77.6%
4 Colorado Washington State Washington State 80.6%
4 Connecticut Western Michigan Connecticut 53.4%
4 East Carolina North Carolina North Carolina 52.9%
4 Eastern Michigan Michigan State Michigan State 93.1%
4 Fresno State Tulsa Tulsa 83.3%
4 Kansas Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 75.1%
4 Kansas State Oklahoma Oklahoma 94.5%
4 Kent Buffalo Kent 61.1%
4 Kentucky Florida Florida 95.8%
4 Louisiana Tech Illinois Louisiana Tech 56.1%
4 Louisville Florida International Louisville 69.3%
4 Louisiana State Auburn Auburn 56.3%
4 Marshall Rice Rice 55.1%
4 Maryland West Virginia West Virginia 96.0%
4 Memphis Duke Duke 96.9%
4 Miami (Florida) Georgia Tech Georgia Tech 75.8%
4 Michigan Notre Dame Michigan 64.3%
4 Mississippi Tulane Mississippi 67.3%
4 Missouri South Carolina South Carolina 69.3%
4 Nevada Hawaii Hawaii 74.2%
4 New Mexico New Mexico State New Mexico State 51.8%
4 Oregon State UCLA UCLA 69.9%
4 Rutgers Arkansas Arkansas 66.4%
4 San Jose State San Diego State San Diego State 80.2%
4 South Florida Ball State South Florida 78.8%
4 Southern Mississippi Western Kentucky Southern Mississippi 52.5%
4 Syracuse Minnesota Minnesota 62.9%
4 Temple Penn State Temple 57.6%
4 Troy State North Texas Troy State 50.8%
4 Alabama-Birmingham Ohio State Ohio State 99.6%
4 Utah Arizona State Utah 90.4%
4 Utah State Colorado State Utah State 61.0%
4 Texas-El Paso Wisconsin Wisconsin 92.3%
4 Vanderbilt Georgia Georgia 73.9%
4 Virginia Texas Christian Texas Christian 97.0%
4 Wyoming Idaho Wyoming 69.4%
4 Florida Atlantic Alabama Alabama 99.9%
4 UMass Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) 92.9%
4 South Alabama Mississippi State Mississippi State 99.4%
5 Arizona State California California 78.4%
5 Arkansas Texas A&M Arkansas 51.8%
5 Ball State Kent Kent 60.8%
5 Baylor West Virginia West Virginia 83.6%
5 Boise State New Mexico Boise State 97.9%
5 Buffalo Connecticut Connecticut 83.8%
5 Central Michigan Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 65.2%
5 Clemson Boston College Clemson 58.9%
5 Colorado State Air Force Air Force 87.7%
5 Duke Wake Forest Duke 53.0%
5 Florida State South Florida Florida State 83.0%
5 Hawaii Brigham Young Brigham Young 95.0%
5 Houston Rice Houston 58.9%
5 Idaho North Carolina North Carolina 83.4%
5 Indiana Northwestern Northwestern 71.8%
5 Louisiana-Monroe Tulane Louisiana-Monroe 50.9%
5 Louisiana Tech Virginia Louisiana Tech 60.3%
5 Louisville Southern Mississippi Louisville 51.0%
5 Marshall Purdue Purdue 81.3%
5 Miami (Ohio) Akron Miami (Ohio) 93.3%
5 Middle Tennessee State Georgia Tech Georgia Tech 97.7%
5 Minnesota Iowa Iowa 86.6%
5 Mississippi Alabama Alabama 97.7%
5 Missouri Central Florida Missouri 68.6%
5 North Carolina State Miami (Florida) Miami (Florida) 68.1%
5 Nevada Texas St Nevada 65.7%
5 North Texas Florida Atlantic North Texas 58.0%
5 Ohio UMass Ohio 82.9%
5 Ohio State Michigan State Ohio State 67.7%
5 Oregon Washington State Oregon 98.3%
5 Oregon State Arizona Oregon State 72.6%
5 Penn State Illinois Illinois 62.4%
5 San Diego State Fresno State Fresno State 54.1%
5 San Jose State Navy Navy 88.2%
5 South Carolina Kentucky South Carolina 85.1%
5 Stanford Washington Stanford 60.4%
5 Texas Christian Southern Methodist Texas Christian 91.4%
5 Tennessee Georgia Georgia 85.3%
5 Texas Oklahoma State Texas 74.6%
5 Texas Tech Iowa State Texas Tech 53.6%
5 Toledo Western Michigan Toledo 61.8%
5 Troy State South Alabama Troy State 78.8%
5 Tulsa Alabama-Birmingham Tulsa 93.5%
5 UCLA Colorado UCLA 91.5%
5 Nevada-Las Vegas Utah State Utah State 88.1%
5 Texas-El Paso East Carolina East Carolina 72.7%
5 Virginia Tech Cincinnati Virginia Tech 51.3%
5 Wisconsin Nebraska Nebraska 76.0%
5 Florida International Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette 61.1%
5 Western Kentucky Arkansas State Arkansas State 55.3%
5 UTSA New Mexico State UTSA 53.2%
6 Arizona Stanford Stanford 97.3%
6 Arkansas Auburn Auburn 77.8%
6 Arkansas State Florida International Florida International 55.2%
6 Boise State Southern Mississippi Boise State 59.2%
6 Boston College Army Boston College 76.8%
6 Bowling Green State Akron Bowling Green State 92.7%
6 Buffalo Ohio Ohio 86.5%
6 Central Michigan Toledo Toledo 65.7%
6 Connecticut Rutgers Rutgers 86.5%
6 East Carolina Central Florida Central Florida 76.5%
6 Florida State North Carolina State Florida State 93.0%
6 Fresno State Colorado State Fresno State 66.1%
6 Georgia South Carolina South Carolina 54.3%
6 Georgia Tech Clemson Clemson 74.5%
6 Hawaii San Diego State San Diego State 65.6%
6 Illinois Wisconsin Wisconsin 82.5%
6 Iowa State Texas Christian Texas Christian 94.6%
6 Kansas Kansas State Kansas State 84.8%
6 Kent Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan 52.5%
6 Louisiana-Monroe Middle Tennessee State Louisiana-Monroe 71.2%
6 Louisiana State Florida Florida 60.8%
6 Miami (Florida) Notre Dame Notre Dame 80.9%
6 Miami (Ohio) Cincinnati Cincinnati 74.7%
6 Michigan Purdue Michigan 82.0%
6 Michigan State Indiana Michigan State 80.7%
6 Mississippi State Kentucky Mississippi State 86.4%
6 Navy Air Force Air Force 60.4%
6 Nebraska Ohio State Ohio State 76.4%
6 New Mexico State Idaho Idaho 84.0%
6 North Texas Houston Houston 80.5%
6 Northern Illinois Ball State Northern Illinois 64.7%
6 Northwestern Penn State Northwestern 55.0%
6 Oklahoma Texas Tech Oklahoma 91.0%
6 Pittsburgh Syracuse Pittsburgh 69.1%
6 Rice Memphis Rice 80.0%
6 Southern Methodist Texas-El Paso Southern Methodist 57.6%
6 South Florida Temple South Florida 54.6%
6 Texas A&M Mississippi Texas A&M 65.5%
6 Tulane Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette 78.5%
6 Tulsa Marshall Tulsa 77.4%
6 UCLA California UCLA 71.2%
6 Nevada-Las Vegas Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 95.4%
6 Southern California Utah Utah 53.7%
6 Utah State Brigham Young Brigham Young 94.4%
6 Vanderbilt Missouri Missouri 59.8%
6 Virginia Duke Duke 69.9%
6 Virginia Tech North Carolina Virginia Tech 81.9%
6 Wake Forest Maryland Wake Forest 54.2%
6 Washington Oregon Oregon 91.4%
6 Washington State Oregon State Oregon State 82.5%
6 West Virginia Texas Texas 87.4%
6 Wyoming Nevada Wyoming 56.7%
6 UMass Western Michigan Western Michigan 85.9%
6 Texas St New Mexico New Mexico 51.0%
7 Air Force Wyoming Air Force 51.0%
7 Akron Ohio Ohio 95.4%
7 Alabama Missouri Alabama 80.1%
7 Arizona State Colorado Arizona State 53.1%
7 Auburn Mississippi Auburn 91.1%
7 Boston College Florida State Florida State 87.5%
7 Buffalo Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 90.7%
7 California Washington State California 53.0%
7 Colorado State San Diego State San Diego State 83.8%
7 Duke Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 83.5%
7 Florida Vanderbilt Florida 69.3%
7 Fresno State Boise State Boise State 88.5%
7 Idaho Texas St Idaho 53.3%
7 Illinois Michigan Michigan 96.5%
7 Iowa Michigan State Michigan State 60.2%
7 Kansas State Iowa State Kansas State 69.5%
7 Kent Army Army 72.3%
7 Kentucky Arkansas Arkansas 88.0%
7 Louisville Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 53.5%
7 Maryland Virginia Virginia 63.9%
7 Memphis East Carolina East Carolina 92.5%
7 Miami (Ohio) Bowling Green State Bowling Green State 54.3%
7 Middle Tennessee State Florida International Florida International 90.0%
7 Navy Central Michigan Central Michigan 53.7%
7 Nevada Nevada-Las Vegas Nevada 65.8%
7 New Mexico Hawaii Hawaii 92.4%
7 Northwestern Minnesota Minnesota 51.3%
7 Ohio State Indiana Ohio State 95.0%
7 Oklahoma State Kansas Oklahoma State 84.2%
7 Oregon State Brigham Young Brigham Young 82.9%
7 Southern Methodist Tulane Southern Methodist 62.4%
7 South Carolina Louisiana State Louisiana State 71.6%
7 Southern Mississippi Central Florida Central Florida 59.6%
7 Stanford Notre Dame Stanford 57.1%
7 Syracuse Rutgers Rutgers 88.7%
7 Texas Christian Baylor Texas Christian 81.1%
7 Temple Connecticut Temple 56.7%
7 Tennessee Mississippi State Mississippi State 80.6%
7 Texas Oklahoma Oklahoma 57.0%
7 Toledo Eastern Michigan Toledo 60.8%
7 Alabama-Birmingham Houston Houston 88.0%
7 North Carolina Miami (Florida) Miami (Florida) 78.4%
7 Southern California Washington Southern California 63.8%
7 Utah UCLA Utah 57.1%
7 Utah State San Jose State Utah State 60.6%
7 Texas-El Paso Tulsa Tulsa 89.5%
7 West Virginia Texas Tech West Virginia 64.2%
7 Western Michigan Ball State Ball State 58.8%
7 Wisconsin Purdue Wisconsin 53.7%
7 Florida Atlantic Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe 78.3%
7 Western Kentucky Troy State Western Kentucky 60.4%
7 South Alabama Arkansas State Arkansas State 91.0%
7 UTSA Rice Rice 87.8%
8 Alabama Tennessee Alabama 87.7%
8 Army Eastern Michigan Army 58.1%
8 Auburn Vanderbilt Auburn 64.2%
8 Ball State Central Michigan Central Michigan 67.8%
8 Baylor Texas Texas 94.8%
8 Boston College Georgia Tech Georgia Tech 56.8%
8 Bowling Green State UMass Bowling Green State 79.4%
8 Brigham Young Notre Dame Notre Dame 52.9%
8 Central Florida Memphis Central Florida 94.1%
8 Cincinnati Toledo Cincinnati 65.1%
8 Colorado Southern California Southern California 98.6%
8 Connecticut Syracuse Syracuse 54.2%
8 East Carolina Alabama-Birmingham East Carolina 76.1%
8 Florida State Miami (Florida) Florida State 91.2%
8 Georgia Kentucky Georgia 89.3%
8 Houston Southern Methodist Southern Methodist 55.3%
8 Idaho Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 94.5%
8 Indiana Navy Navy 72.6%
8 Iowa State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 90.4%
8 Kansas Oklahoma Oklahoma 99.0%
8 Kansas State West Virginia West Virginia 71.2%
8 Louisiana-Lafayette North Texas Louisiana-Lafayette 64.3%
8 Louisiana-Monroe Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 76.0%
8 Louisiana State Texas A&M Louisiana State 72.2%
8 Marshall Southern Mississippi Southern Mississippi 80.4%
8 Michigan State Michigan Michigan 78.7%
8 Middle Tennessee State Mississippi State Mississippi State 99.2%
8 Minnesota Wisconsin Wisconsin 81.6%
8 North Carolina State Maryland North Carolina State 62.6%
8 Nebraska Northwestern Nebraska 78.1%
8 New Mexico Air Force Air Force 95.4%
8 New Mexico State Utah State Utah State 94.5%
8 Northern Illinois Akron Northern Illinois 95.1%
8 Oregon Arizona State Oregon 98.7%
8 Penn State Iowa Iowa 85.8%
8 Pittsburgh Buffalo Pittsburgh 87.1%
8 Purdue Ohio State Ohio State 92.0%
8 Rice Tulsa Tulsa 86.1%
8 Rutgers Temple Rutgers 64.8%
8 San Diego State Nevada San Diego State 57.7%
8 San Jose State UTSA San Jose State 64.3%
8 South Carolina Florida Florida 71.7%
8 South Florida Louisville Louisville 56.2%
8 Stanford California Stanford 86.4%
8 Texas Tech Texas Christian Texas Christian 90.2%
8 Tulane Texas-El Paso Texas-El Paso 65.5%
8 North Carolina Duke Duke 75.2%
8 Nevada-Las Vegas Boise State Boise State 98.3%
8 Utah Oregon State Utah 63.2%
8 Virginia Tech Clemson Clemson 74.9%
8 Wake Forest Virginia Wake Forest 52.8%
8 Washington Arizona Washington 79.7%
8 Western Michigan Kent Kent 59.2%
8 Wyoming Fresno State Fresno State 63.6%
8 Florida Atlantic South Alabama Florida Atlantic 57.0%
8 Florida International Troy State Florida International 50.2%
9 Akron Central Michigan Central Michigan 96.2%
9 Arkansas State Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette 59.8%
9 Ball State Army Army 71.7%
9 Baylor Iowa State Baylor 52.8%
9 Boise State Wyoming Boise State 78.4%
9 Brigham Young Georgia Tech Brigham Young 51.6%
9 California Utah Utah 90.3%
9 Central Florida Marshall Central Florida 65.1%
9 Cincinnati Louisville Louisville 54.7%
9 Clemson Wake Forest Clemson 86.2%
9 Colorado Oregon Oregon 99.9%
9 Duke Florida State Florida State 96.1%
9 Eastern Michigan Bowling Green State Bowling Green State 70.8%
9 Florida Georgia Florida 57.6%
9 Fresno State New Mexico Fresno State 85.0%
9 Hawaii Colorado State Hawaii 57.8%
9 Indiana Illinois Illinois 67.9%
9 Iowa Northwestern Iowa 69.5%
9 Kent Rutgers Rutgers 90.4%
9 Kentucky Missouri Missouri 90.9%
9 Louisiana Tech New Mexico State Louisiana Tech 96.4%
9 Maryland Boston College Boston College 92.9%
9 Memphis Southern Methodist Southern Methodist 93.4%
9 Michigan Nebraska Michigan 50.5%
9 Michigan State Wisconsin Michigan State 50.3%
9 Mississippi Arkansas Arkansas 87.0%
9 Mississippi State Alabama Alabama 83.3%
9 Navy East Carolina Navy 51.2%
9 North Carolina State North Carolina North Carolina State 61.1%
9 Nevada Air Force Air Force 81.7%
9 North Texas Middle Tennessee State North Texas 66.4%
9 Northern Illinois Western Michigan Northern Illinois 66.5%
9 Notre Dame Oklahoma Oklahoma 91.0%
9 Ohio Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) 64.3%
9 Ohio State Penn State Ohio State 91.8%
9 Oregon State Washington Washington 68.1%
9 Purdue Minnesota Purdue 58.2%
9 Southern Mississippi Rice Southern Mississippi 70.3%
9 Syracuse South Florida South Florida 86.7%
9 Texas Christian Oklahoma State Texas Christian 58.8%
9 Temple Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 65.2%
9 Tennessee South Carolina South Carolina 78.9%
9 Texas Kansas Texas 96.7%
9 Texas A&M Auburn Auburn 82.6%
9 Texas Tech Kansas State Kansas State 67.9%
9 Toledo Buffalo Toledo 76.4%
9 Troy State Florida Atlantic Troy State 67.5%
9 Alabama-Birmingham Tulane Tulane 76.1%
9 UCLA Arizona State UCLA 86.3%
9 Nevada-Las Vegas San Diego State San Diego State 90.0%
9 Southern California Arizona Southern California 90.0%
9 Utah State UTSA Utah State 82.5%
9 Texas-El Paso Houston Houston 76.3%
9 Washington State Stanford Stanford 95.0%
9 Western Kentucky Florida International Florida International 51.2%
9 UMass Vanderbilt Vanderbilt 98.6%
9 South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe 88.5%
9 Texas St San Jose State San Jose State 73.2%
10 Air Force Army Army 57.4%
10 Akron Kent Kent 92.9%
10 Alabama Louisiana State Alabama 59.5%
10 Arizona UCLA UCLA 91.9%
10 Arizona State Oregon State Oregon State 88.0%
10 Arkansas State North Texas Arkansas State 66.4%
10 Boston College Wake Forest Boston College 74.9%
10 Clemson Duke Clemson 83.6%
10 Colorado State Wyoming Wyoming 75.8%
10 Connecticut South Florida South Florida 79.2%
10 Eastern Michigan Ohio Ohio 76.0%
10 Georgia Tech Maryland Georgia Tech 83.2%
10 Hawaii Fresno State Fresno State 62.4%
10 Houston East Carolina East Carolina 52.2%
10 Illinois Ohio State Ohio State 94.7%
10 Iowa Indiana Iowa 80.5%
10 Kansas Baylor Baylor 75.0%
10 Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Lafayette 53.5%
10 Memphis Marshall Marshall 90.4%
10 Miami (Ohio) Buffalo Miami (Ohio) 79.6%
10 Michigan Minnesota Michigan 91.3%
10 Middle Tennessee State Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 93.2%
10 Mississippi Georgia Georgia 92.8%
10 Missouri Florida Florida 77.0%
10 Nebraska Michigan State Nebraska 51.3%
10 New Mexico Nevada-Las Vegas Nevada-Las Vegas 66.4%
10 New Mexico State Auburn Auburn 99.9%
10 Oklahoma Iowa State Oklahoma 96.1%
10 Oklahoma State Kansas State Oklahoma State 57.9%
10 Oregon Southern California Oregon 75.3%
10 Penn State Purdue Purdue 73.8%
10 Pittsburgh Notre Dame Notre Dame 73.8%
10 Rice Tulane Tulane 51.3%
10 San Diego State Boise State Boise State 88.3%
10 San Jose State Idaho Idaho 54.2%
10 Southern Methodist Central Florida Central Florida 73.7%
10 Stanford Colorado Stanford 96.7%
10 Syracuse Cincinnati Cincinnati 82.1%
10 Texas Christian West Virginia Texas Christian 56.6%
10 Temple Louisville Louisville 71.9%
10 Texas Texas Tech Texas 89.2%
10 Texas A&M Mississippi State Mississippi State 78.2%
10 Troy State Tennessee Tennessee 86.9%
10 Tulsa Arkansas Arkansas 75.7%
10 Alabama-Birmingham Southern Mississippi Southern Mississippi 94.7%
10 Vanderbilt Kentucky Vanderbilt 79.4%
10 Virginia North Carolina State North Carolina State 65.9%
10 Virginia Tech Miami (Florida) Virginia Tech 65.9%
10 Washington California Washington 69.8%
10 Washington State Utah Utah 92.3%
10 Western Michigan Central Michigan Central Michigan 70.6%
10 Florida Atlantic Navy Navy 88.7%
10 Florida International South Alabama Florida International 84.9%
10 UMass Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 94.4%
10 Texas St Utah State Utah State 87.8%
10 UTSA Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 97.2%
11 Air Force San Diego State Air Force 50.9%
11 Arizona State Southern California Southern California 97.2%
11 Arkansas South Carolina South Carolina 68.7%
11 Army Rutgers Rutgers 85.9%
11 Ball State Toledo Toledo 71.6%
11 Baylor Oklahoma Oklahoma 96.5%
11 Boise State Hawaii Boise State 80.0%
11 Bowling Green State Ohio Ohio 57.0%
11 Central Florida Texas-El Paso Central Florida 68.4%
11 Central Michigan Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 59.7%
11 Cincinnati Temple Cincinnati 53.3%
11 Colorado Arizona Arizona 77.0%
11 Florida State Virginia Tech Florida State 74.0%
11 Fresno State Nevada Fresno State 52.1%
11 Georgia Auburn Auburn 63.9%
11 Georgia Tech North Carolina Georgia Tech 80.0%
11 Idaho Brigham Young Brigham Young 98.8%
11 Iowa State Texas Texas 97.4%
11 Kansas Texas Tech Texas Tech 79.5%
11 Kansas State Texas Christian Texas Christian 83.0%
11 Kent Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) 74.0%
11 Louisiana-Lafayette Florida Florida 96.2%
11 Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas State Arkansas State 66.7%
11 Louisiana Tech Texas St Louisiana Tech 91.5%
11 Louisville Syracuse Louisville 70.2%
11 Marshall Alabama-Birmingham Marshall 71.8%
11 Maryland Clemson Clemson 96.6%
11 Miami (Florida) Virginia Miami (Florida) 60.0%
11 Minnesota Illinois Illinois 59.2%
11 Mississippi State Louisiana State Louisiana State 70.8%
11 Missouri Tennessee Missouri 59.2%
11 Navy Troy State Navy 55.5%
11 Northwestern Michigan Michigan 93.3%
11 Notre Dame Boston College Boston College 57.1%
11 Oregon California Oregon 96.6%
11 Oregon State Stanford Stanford 83.9%
11 Penn State Nebraska Nebraska 92.4%
11 Pittsburgh Connecticut Pittsburgh 58.7%
11 Purdue Iowa Iowa 72.5%
11 San Jose State New Mexico State San Jose State 74.9%
11 Southern Mississippi Southern Methodist Southern Mississippi 58.6%
11 Texas A&M Alabama Alabama 93.9%
11 Tulane Memphis Tulane 75.9%
11 Tulsa Houston Tulsa 68.2%
11 UCLA Washington State UCLA 78.0%
11 Nevada-Las Vegas Colorado State Colorado State 74.8%
11 Utah Washington Utah 53.5%
11 Vanderbilt Mississippi Vanderbilt 75.9%
11 Wake Forest North Carolina State North Carolina State 63.1%
11 West Virginia Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 55.2%
11 Western Michigan Buffalo Western Michigan 60.2%
11 Wisconsin Indiana Wisconsin 80.5%
11 Wyoming New Mexico Wyoming 84.0%
11 Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 90.7%
11 UMass Akron UMass 62.3%
11 South Alabama North Texas North Texas 81.5%
12 Arizona Utah Utah 94.8%
12 Arkansas Mississippi State Mississippi State 68.6%
12 Arkansas State Troy State Arkansas State 51.2%
12 Buffalo UMass Buffalo 54.1%
12 Brigham Young San Jose State Brigham Young 96.5%
12 California Oregon State Oregon State 75.3%
12 Central Florida Tulsa Tulsa 66.7%
12 Colorado State Boise State Boise State 96.3%
12 Duke Georgia Tech Georgia Tech 77.7%
12 East Carolina Tulane East Carolina 62.2%
12 Eastern Michigan Western Michigan Western Michigan 61.8%
12 Florida State Maryland Florida State 97.6%
12 Hawaii Air Force Air Force 76.0%
12 Houston Marshall Houston 53.9%
12 Indiana Penn State Penn State 64.5%
12 Iowa Michigan Michigan 82.4%
12 Iowa State Kansas Iowa State 52.5%
12 Kansas State Baylor Kansas State 55.0%
12 Kent Bowling Green State Bowling Green State 68.5%
12 Memphis Alabama-Birmingham Alabama-Birmingham 70.9%
12 Miami (Ohio) Central Michigan Miami (Ohio) 50.3%
12 Middle Tennessee State South Alabama Middle Tennessee State 52.1%
12 Minnesota Nebraska Nebraska 92.4%
12 Mississippi Louisiana State Louisiana State 95.6%
12 North Carolina State Clemson Clemson 91.6%
12 Nevada New Mexico Nevada 78.2%
12 North Texas Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe 69.1%
12 Northwestern Michigan State Michigan State 83.0%
12 Ohio Ball State Ball State 50.7%
12 Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State 74.4%
12 Oklahoma West Virginia Oklahoma 76.7%
12 Purdue Illinois Purdue 56.8%
12 Rutgers Cincinnati Rutgers 54.8%
12 Southern Methodist Rice Southern Methodist 52.2%
12 South Florida Miami (Florida) South Florida 59.1%
12 Stanford Oregon Oregon 84.8%
12 Syracuse Missouri Missouri 91.8%
12 Temple Army Temple 55.5%
12 Tennessee Vanderbilt Vanderbilt 70.1%
12 Texas Tech Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 80.3%
12 Toledo Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 63.7%
12 North Carolina Virginia Virginia 59.8%
12 Southern California UCLA Southern California 61.5%
12 Utah State Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 78.6%
12 Texas-El Paso Southern Mississippi Southern Mississippi 84.2%
12 Virginia Tech Boston College Boston College 56.0%
12 Wake Forest Notre Dame Notre Dame 86.9%
12 Washington Colorado Washington 90.8%
12 Washington State Arizona State Washington State 53.6%
12 Wyoming Nevada-Las Vegas Wyoming 76.8%
12 Florida International Florida Atlantic Florida International 78.6%
12 Western Kentucky Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette 51.8%
12 Texas St Navy Navy 93.2%
12 UTSA Idaho Idaho 74.0%
13 Air Force Fresno State Fresno State 53.2%
13 Akron Toledo Toledo 96.5%
13 Arizona State Arizona Arizona 63.6%
13 Auburn Alabama Alabama 76.8%
13 Ball State Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) 72.3%
13 Boise State Nevada Boise State 87.5%
13 Boston College North Carolina State Boston College 69.9%
13 Buffalo Bowling Green State Bowling Green State 83.8%
13 Brigham Young New Mexico State Brigham Young 99.2%
13 Central Michigan UMass Central Michigan 81.3%
13 Connecticut Louisville Louisville 79.3%
13 Florida Florida State Florida State 61.6%
13 Georgia Tech Georgia Georgia 80.7%
13 Idaho Utah State Utah State 84.5%
13 Illinois Northwestern Northwestern 64.5%
13 Indiana Purdue Purdue 78.8%
13 Kentucky Tennessee Tennessee 75.9%
13 Louisiana-Monroe Florida International Florida International 69.8%
13 Louisiana Tech San Jose State Louisiana Tech 82.3%
13 Louisiana State Arkansas Louisiana State 64.1%
13 Marshall East Carolina East Carolina 69.2%
13 Maryland North Carolina North Carolina 61.7%
13 Miami (Florida) Duke Duke 54.9%
13 Michigan Ohio State Ohio State 63.5%
13 Michigan State Minnesota Michigan State 79.6%
13 Mississippi State Mississippi Mississippi State 84.0%
13 Missouri Texas A&M Missouri 56.0%
13 Nebraska Iowa Nebraska 53.3%
13 New Mexico Colorado State Colorado State 80.7%
13 North Texas Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 82.4%
13 Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 72.7%
13 Notre Dame Southern California Southern California 74.4%
13 Ohio Kent Ohio 52.3%
13 Oklahoma State Oklahoma Oklahoma 86.2%
13 Oregon Oregon State Oregon 93.1%
13 Rice Texas-El Paso Texas-El Paso 53.8%
13 Rutgers Pittsburgh Rutgers 55.0%
13 San Diego State Wyoming Wyoming 55.7%
13 South Carolina Clemson Clemson 57.7%
13 South Florida Cincinnati Cincinnati 50.7%
13 Southern Mississippi Memphis Southern Mississippi 94.3%
13 Stanford UCLA Stanford 62.7%
13 Syracuse Temple Temple 74.3%
13 Texas Christian Texas Texas 72.1%
13 Texas Tech Baylor Texas Tech 51.4%
13 Troy State Middle Tennessee State Troy State 69.2%
13 Tulane Houston Houston 76.3%
13 Tulsa Southern Methodist Tulsa 67.9%
13 Alabama-Birmingham Central Florida Central Florida 94.5%
13 Nevada-Las Vegas Hawaii Hawaii 89.6%
13 Utah Colorado Utah 95.3%
13 Vanderbilt Wake Forest Vanderbilt 78.3%
13 Virginia Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 90.2%
13 Washington Washington State Washington 78.5%
13 West Virginia Iowa State West Virginia 80.2%
13 Wisconsin Penn State Wisconsin 71.7%
13 South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette 92.6%
13 Texas St UTSA UTSA 55.9%
14 Cincinnati Connecticut Cincinnati 67.2%
14 Kansas West Virginia West Virginia 96.0%
14 Louisiana-Lafayette Florida Atlantic Louisiana-Lafayette 83.6%
14 Louisville Rutgers Rutgers 70.4%
14 Middle Tennessee State Arkansas State Arkansas State 95.6%
14 New Mexico State Texas St Texas St 78.3%
14 Oklahoma Texas Christian Oklahoma 63.6%
14 Oklahoma State Baylor Oklahoma State 75.5%
14 Pittsburgh South Florida South Florida 70.3%
14 Texas Kansas State Texas 92.1%
14 South Alabama Hawaii Hawaii 95.2%
15 Navy Army Navy 54.2%

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

4) At this point, there are a number of model features that need to be investigated further. Chief among these is the distribution of extreme events. It appears that the model may be overstating the probabilities of extreme events, such as 12-0 or 0-12 records, major underdogs winning their division/league, or major upsets in individual games. This overstatement has been reduced compared to last year's projections, but still likely exists to some degree. Please keep this in mind when looking at the distribution of win probabilities.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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