One new piece of analysis I'm doing this year is looking at some of key matchups and what Compu-Picks thinks the results of these matchups will say about the rest of the season. For week one, I'm going to take a look at Alabama-Michigan, Auburn-Clemson, Boise St - Michigan St, Georgia Tech - Virginia Tech, and an interesting game a bit off the radar, Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech.
I'll start with the marquee game of the weekend, Alabama-Michigan. Let's look at Alabama first, splitting out the season simulations where they beat Michigan from the ones where they didn't:
| Alabama 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Michigan |
| Michigan Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Michigan | 100% | 0% | 72% |
| W. Kentucky | 98% | 95% | 98% |
| Arkansas | 85% | 67% | 80% |
| Fla. Atlantic | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Mississippi | 99% | 95% | 98% |
| Missouri | 84% | 70% | 80% |
| Tennessee | 91% | 79% | 88% |
| Mississippi St. | 88% | 72% | 83% |
| LSU | 65% | 46% | 60% |
| Texas A&M | 96% | 89% | 94% |
| Auburn | 81% | 67% | 77% |
| AA | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Michigan | 9.86 | 8.79 | 9.56 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Michigan | 10.86 | 8.79 | 10.28 |
As you can see, beating Michigan is a pretty big deal in terms of predicting the rest of the year (over a full win difference - 9.86 vs 8.79 - in the rest of the year's games). Or, perhaps more accurately, NOT beating Michigan is a pretty big deal, since they're projected to have about a 72% chance of winning the game.
This means that a loss tells us something surprising about Alabama (and has a relatively large impact on the future game predictions), while a win merely helps confirm the assessment of the teams' abilities going into the game (and thus has a smaller impact on the future game predictions).
Now let's take a look at the other side of the game and what impact it's projected to have on Michigan's season:
| Michigan 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Alabama |
| Alabama Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Alabama | 100% | 0% | 28% |
| Air Force | 98% | 94% | 95% |
| Massachusetts | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Notre Dame | 74% | 61% | 64% |
| Purdue | 90% | 79% | 82% |
| Illinois | 98% | 96% | 96% |
| Michigan St. | 87% | 76% | 79% |
| Nebraska | 64% | 45% | 51% |
| Minnesota | 97% | 89% | 91% |
| Northwestern | 98% | 91% | 93% |
| Iowa | 90% | 79% | 82% |
| Ohio St. | 50% | 31% | 36% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Alabama | 9.45 | 8.41 | 8.70 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Alabama | 10.45 | 8.41 | 8.98 |
Just like Alabama, the difference between winning this game and losing it amounts to a full game the rest of the way. That's a full two win swing for Michigan, one for the week one game itself, and one for the cumulative impact over the rest of the season. As with Alabama, we can potentially learn a lot from an upset here, or we can learn less from an expected result. Either way, the difference is material.
It's a similar story for Auburn and Clemson, with the difference between winning and losing worth about two wins for each team - one for the game itself and one for the cumulative predictive impact on the rest of the season.
| Auburn 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Clemson |
| Clemson Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Clemson | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Mississippi St. | 59% | 42% | 52% |
| La.-Monroe | 99% | 96% | 97% |
| LSU | 63% | 47% | 56% |
| Arkansas | 83% | 70% | 78% |
| Mississippi | 94% | 87% | 91% |
| Vanderbilt | 71% | 54% | 64% |
| Texas A&M | 88% | 75% | 83% |
| New Mexico St. | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Georgia | 71% | 53% | 64% |
| Alabama | 29% | 15% | 23% |
| AA | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Clemson | 8.56 | 7.37 | 8.09 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Clemson | 9.56 | 7.37 | 8.69 |
| Clemson 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Auburn |
| Auburn Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Auburn | 100% | 0% | 40% |
| Ball St. | 98% | 93% | 95% |
| Florida St. | 30% | 17% | 22% |
| Boston College | 68% | 53% | 59% |
| Georgia Tech | 83% | 69% | 75% |
| Virginia Tech | 84% | 69% | 75% |
| Wake Forest | 92% | 83% | 86% |
| Duke | 89% | 80% | 84% |
| Maryland | 98% | 96% | 97% |
| N. Carolina St. | 95% | 89% | 92% |
| South Carolina | 69% | 50% | 58% |
| AA | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Auburn | 9.08 | 7.98 | 8.41 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Auburn | 10.08 | 7.98 | 8.81 |
Boise St - Michigan St is a bit different. While the impact on Boise is about the same as for the teams above, it's actually a much larger impact on Michigan St. This is because the Spartans have many more tossup or near-tossup games, and fewer that are either very likely wins or very likely losses. The predominance of swing games on the Spartans' slate means that a win here could be a stepping stone to a big season, while a loss here could spell a disastrous 2012.
| Boise St. 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Michigan St. |
| Michigan St. Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Michigan St. | 100% | 0% | 39% |
| Miami (Ohio) | 90% | 80% | 84% |
| BYU | 53% | 36% | 43% |
| New Mexico | 99% | 97% | 98% |
| Southern Miss | 68% | 54% | 59% |
| Fresno St. | 93% | 85% | 89% |
| UNLV | 99% | 98% | 98% |
| Wyoming | 86% | 74% | 78% |
| San Diego St. | 92% | 86% | 88% |
| Hawaii | 87% | 75% | 80% |
| Colorado St. | 99% | 95% | 96% |
| Nevada | 93% | 84% | 88% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Michigan St. | 9.59 | 8.64 | 9.01 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Michigan St. | 10.59 | 8.64 | 9.40 |
| Michigan St. 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Boise St. |
| Boise St. Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Boise St. | 100% | 0% | 61% |
| C. Michigan | 82% | 69% | 77% |
| Notre Dame | 60% | 44% | 54% |
| E. Michigan | 95% | 89% | 93% |
| Ohio St. | 38% | 24% | 32% |
| Indiana | 85% | 74% | 81% |
| Iowa | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Michigan | 26% | 14% | 21% |
| Wisconsin | 57% | 39% | 50% |
| Nebraska | 55% | 39% | 49% |
| Northwestern | 88% | 75% | 83% |
| Minnesota | 84% | 72% | 80% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Boise St. | 7.38 | 5.88 | 6.80 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Boise St. | 8.38 | 5.88 | 7.41 |
Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, like Michigan St above, have records relatively more sensitive to this result than teams like Michigan, Alabama or Boise, as the impact on future games is worth about 1.25 wins for each. Not quite at the level of the Spartans, but more than the others so far.
| Georgia Tech 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Virginia Tech |
| Virginia Tech Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Virginia Tech | 100% | 0% | 38% |
| Virginia | 93% | 85% | 88% |
| Miami (Fla.) | 86% | 70% | 76% |
| M. Tenn. St. | 99% | 97% | 98% |
| Clemson | 35% | 19% | 25% |
| Boston College | 68% | 50% | 57% |
| BYU | 59% | 42% | 48% |
| Maryland | 89% | 80% | 83% |
| North Carolina | 87% | 76% | 80% |
| Duke | 85% | 73% | 78% |
| Georgia | 26% | 15% | 19% |
| AA | 100% | 98% | 99% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Virginia Tech | 8.28 | 7.05 | 7.51 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Virginia Tech | 9.28 | 7.05 | 7.89 |
| Virginia Tech 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Georgia Tech |
| Georgia Tech Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Georgia Tech | 100% | 0% | 62% |
| Pittsburgh | 70% | 53% | 63% |
| Bowling Green | 94% | 88% | 92% |
| Cincinnati | 58% | 41% | 51% |
| North Carolina | 86% | 75% | 82% |
| Duke | 88% | 76% | 83% |
| Clemson | 29% | 18% | 25% |
| Miami (Fla.) | 72% | 56% | 66% |
| Florida St. | 32% | 17% | 26% |
| Boston College | 50% | 34% | 44% |
| Virginia | 93% | 85% | 90% |
| AA | 100% | 99% | 100% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Georgia Tech | 7.72 | 6.40 | 7.22 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Georgia Tech | 8.72 | 6.40 | 7.85 |
Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech, the final game I'm looking at in detail, is actually a bit more interesting and telling than you might think. Texas A&M falls around the level of the two ACC teams above, more sensitive to the result here than most, but not to the extreme. However, given their schedule the rest of the way, if they're not good enough to win this game, they're not good enough to come anywhere close to seven wins (which they need for bowl eligibility, since they play two AA teams).
Meanwhile, for Louisiana Tech, this game could potentially be the beginning of an exceptional season. A&M is rated as their toughest test, with only three other games rated below 80% win likelihood. If they're good enough to win in week one, their win odds in their remaining games increase dramatically. If they can win in week one and then avoid a stumble against Houston the next week, they could be off to the races for a double-digit win season at the very least.
| Texas A&M 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Louisiana Tech |
| Louisiana Tech Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Louisiana Tech | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Florida | 29% | 15% | 23% |
| SMU | 77% | 64% | 71% |
| Arkansas | 56% | 39% | 48% |
| Mississippi | 72% | 58% | 66% |
| LSU | 34% | 19% | 28% |
| Auburn | 23% | 11% | 17% |
| Mississippi St. | 27% | 16% | 22% |
| Alabama | 8% | 4% | 6% |
| Missouri | 51% | 35% | 44% |
| AA | 100% | 98% | 99% |
| AA | 99% | 98% | 99% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Louisiana Tech | 5.75 | 4.55 | 5.22 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Louisiana Tech | 6.75 | 4.55 | 5.79 |
| Louisiana Tech 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Texas A&M |
| Texas A&M Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Texas A&M | 100% | 0% | 44% |
| Houston | 67% | 51% | 58% |
| Rice | 89% | 77% | 82% |
| Illinois | 65% | 49% | 56% |
| Virginia | 69% | 53% | 60% |
| UNLV | 97% | 94% | 95% |
| Idaho | 97% | 93% | 95% |
| New Mexico St. | 98% | 95% | 96% |
| Texas-San Antonio | 99% | 96% | 97% |
| Tex St-San Mar | 95% | 89% | 91% |
| Utah St. | 86% | 73% | 79% |
| San Jose St. | 87% | 78% | 82% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Texas A&M | 9.49 | 8.48 | 8.92 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Texas A&M | 10.49 | 8.48 | 9.36 |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
