2012 Fearless Predictions
Week 1 - Part 4
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- FREE EXPERT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
- South Carolina at Vanderbilt, & More
- North Texas at LSU, & More
- Missouri, Ole Miss & Miss State
- Clemson vs. Auburn
- NC State vs. Tennessee
- Michigan vs. Alabama
SE Louisiana (0-0) at Missouri (0-0) Sept. 1, 7:00, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal: One more week, Missouri, one more week. The Tigers get a true tune-up game before diving head first in the SEC chase with a showdown against Georgia in Columbia, and the ride won’t stop from there with Arizona State and a trip to South Carolina to follow. They have plenty of talent returning to go along with the excitement and the buzz surrounding the move to the SEC. First, the Tigers have to beat the Lions, who finished last year 3-8 with no defense, no production from the defensive front, and little running game to offset a decent passing game that threw for a ton of yards to make up for the disaster on D.
Why SE Louisiana Might Win: The Tigers are already hurt. Top receiver T.J. Moe is trying to get back from a hamstring injury, offensive tackle Justin Britt is just coming back from a foot problem, and safety Braylon Webb and corner Kip Edwards each have knee problems. Those are just a few of the bumps and bruises, and while it’s game time and all systems go, will the coaching staff think about the Georgia game in any way when it comes to working the starters? It’s a Gary Pinkel coached team, so no, but the Tigers might not be sharp. They could still use a little more time to prep.
Why Missouri Might Win: SE Louisiana couldn’t stop anyone’s offense last season with no pass rush and struggles to take the ball away. It’s a new year and a new team, but the defensive front isn’t expected to start flying into the backfield and the secondary will suffer. The Lions need to be at least +4 in turnover margin to make this interesting, and even then it might not be enough to overcome James Franklin and the Mizzou passing attack.
What To Watch Out For: Is Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson ready to take his game up another level? The superstar JUCO transfer who tried finally qualified academically and made his presence felt in his first season. The 6-4, 295-pound senior could’ve gone anywhere with his NFL upside and anchor ability, and while he only started in two games, he didn’t disappoint with 37 tackles to go along with two sacks and eight tackles for loss. Along with being freakishly strong against the run, he’ll be one of the SEC’s top interior pass rushers if he has the light turned on. When he wanted it, he was a half-step quicker and far stronger in practices, and if he has the intensity, he could blow up the SE Louisiana offense at times.
What Will Happen: Franklin will have a crisp and efficient day, but it will be the defense that shines shutting down the decent Lion passing attack. This will be the blowout needed to get the confidence level high before the Dawgs come to Columbia.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 54 … SE Louisiana 7
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) None; O/U: None
Must Watch Rating (5 – Boss, 1 - Married To Jonas): 1
Central Arkansas (0-0) at Ole Miss (0-0) Sept. 1, 7:00, CSS
Here’s The Deal: The Hugh Freeze era kicks off at Ole Miss as he tries to get the program past the ugly 2-10 season that necessitated the change. His Rebels have a ton of experience with a whopping 17 starters coming back, but is there any talent? Is the quarterback situation settled? Are there any playmakers? After losing the 2010 opener to Jacksonville State, Ole Miss has to avoid the season-starting loss to another FCS team. Central Arkansas is ranked in the top 25 in both FCS polls with a high-powered passing game that could take advantage of a dinged up Rebel secondary. This won’t be the easy opener for Freeze he might be hoping for, even with the program’s overall attitude change and with all the excitement of the new staff.
Why Central Arkansas Might Win: Do the Rebels have an offense? Even in an offensively-challenged SEC last season, Ole Miss was especially bad finishing among the worst teams in the country in points, yards and passing. It’s a new coaching staff and a new team, but there are way too many injuries to expect anything stellar right away. The receiving corps lost its depth, while on defense the secondary is a concern with receiver/corner Nikolas Brassell getting kicked off the team for academic issues and with star safety Charles Sawyer hurt. It’s also possible that the turnover margin will play a role. The Bears were among the best in the FCS at controlling the turnovers, while the Rebels were among the worst in FBS.
Why Ole Miss Might Win: Veterans. It’s not like there isn’t talent at Ole Miss – Houston Nutt had a decent team coming back two year ago, and now several key players have matured. The Central Arkansas pass defense doesn’t have much to rely on in the secondary, and while the Rebels might not have a big-time passing game, they should be able to move the ball a bit better through the air. With all the key skill players returning, with the exception of Brazell, and with Freeze knowing what he’s doing for the offense, the results should be better.
What To Watch Out For: And the Ole Miss starting quarterback will be … ? It’s going to be an ongoing debate throughout the first few games – the issue isn’t settled yet. Bo Wallace is a 6-5, 210-pound JUCO transfer from East Mississippi who’s coming off a NJCAA national title after bombing away for 4,604 yards and 53 scores. The former Elite 11 camper originally signed on with Arkansas State in 2010 when Freeze was the offensive coordinator, didn’t play, and then took a year off to play at the lower level before moving to Ole Miss. 6-0, 215-pound junior Barry Brunetti should be the perfect fit for what Freeze wants to do with excellent running ability and good enough passing skills to get by, but he hasn’t been able to take the job by the horns. They’ll each get a shot.
What Will Happen: Central Arkansas is dangerous, and Ole Miss is still anything but solid in all areas, but the talent level on the lines will come through as the game goes on. Freeze beat the Bears 53-24 last season when he was at Arkansas State.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss 37 … Central Arkansas 27
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) None; O/U: None
Must Watch Rating (5 – Boss, 1 - Married To Jonas): 2
Jackson State (0-0) at Mississippi State (0-0) Sept. 1, 7:00, SEC/FSN
Here’s The Deal: Jackson State went 9-2 last season and welcomes back 15 starters. This is one of the SWAC’s best teams with a high-powered offense that led the FCS in yards while averaging 348 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense was tremendous at getting into the backfield and hitting the quarterback. Will it matter against a Mississippi State team that might be looking ahead to the SEC opener against Auburn next week? Yes, MSU Tigers are going to try to get the passing game going a little more while expecting more from a veteran defense that had a nice year and should be ready to come up with a special season. The secondary will be tested right away.
Why Jackson State Might Win: Is the Mississippi State offensive line ready for a Jackson State defense that will bring the heat? MSU wasn’t awful in pass protection, but it wasn’t consistent and steady. Now with quarterback Tyler Russell looking to try to come up with a strong start, he needs time to operate and he might not get it. All-America defensive end Joseph LeBeau is a sack machine making 16 sacks and 24.5 tackles for loss, and he’s about to be turned loose on the Bulldog backfield.
Why Mississippi State Might Win: Yes, Jackson State had a dominant 2011, but that was against teams like Concordia-Selma, Alabama A&M and Alcorn State. There were major problems hanging on to the ball, and the rushing offense was hardly anything special on a regular basis. Secondary will be one of MSU’s biggest strengths and it should be able to handle the storm from the JSU passing game. Meanwhile, the pass rush should be dominant. The Tigers can get into the backfield, but their O line will have to deal with MSU D line that’s going to start out the year hot.
What To Watch Out For: With the way Jackson State throws the ball, Mississippi State star corner Johnthan Banks will be on display. While he hits well and is peerless at wrapping up, he’s also deadly when the ball is in the air making five picks with nine broken up passes. Teams stopped throwing his way, but he still found ways to be productive. The Tigers will give up the ball, and there will be plenty of chances for Banks to make several huge plays.
What Will Happen: Jackson State will put up nice offensive numbers in the second half when the outcome has already been decided. Tyler Russell will look great, the Mississippi State defense will look better, and it will be on to the Auburn showdown.
CFN Prediction: Mississippi State 38 … Jackson State 16
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) None; O/U: None
Must Watch Rating (5 – Boss, 1 - Married To Jonas): 1.5