TONIGHT Week 2 – Pitt at Cincinnati

Week 2 CFN Fearless Prediction – Pitt at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (0-1) at Cincinnati (0-0) Sept. 6, 8:00, ESPN

Here’s The Deal: One of just a handful of FBS teams idle in Week 1, Cincinnati will start its 2012 campaign in front of a nationally-televised audience Thursday night. The Bearcats have a singular goal entering the season; after losing a slew of starters from a 10-3 squad, they’re determined to reload instead of rebuild. It will not be an easy quest for a program that bid adieu to most of its stars on offense and defense. Enter a wounded Pitt program that got humbled in head coach Paul Chryst’s debut by Youngstown State, 31-17. Conventional wisdom says that teams tend to make their biggest strides in the second week of a year. If the old adage doesn’t ring true for the Panthers, this could be the start of a very long and trying campaign for the program. With the Big East being up for grabs, each conference game could go a long way toward determining who gets the league’s automatic BCS bowl bid.

Why Pittsburgh Might Win: This will be the first game for the remodeled Cincinnati front seven, which lost so much talent to graduation. And while the Panthers O-line might not be able to take full advantage of the situation, the team’s backfield just might. Pitt has a veteran, Tino Sunseri, taking snaps, and a deep collection of running backs. Ray Graham made a healthy return from last year’s season-ending injury, rushing for 71 yards, and Isaac Bennett is an undervalued complement. The Panthers, by the directive of Chryst, will play ball-control in order to control the clock and wear down the Bearcats.

Why Cincinnati Might Win: The Bearcats don’t get to open their season against an FCS opponent, but the Panthers D might be a close facsimile. Youngstown State has an excellent offense by Missouri Valley Conference standards, but it should not have its way with a Big East team. Pitt did not get to the quarterback, good news for Munchie Legaux, who’s vowing to play like a different distributor in his second full year. Sure, it hurts to lose a back like Isaiah Pead, but Cincy feels it’ll still be dangerous at the skill positions with RB George Winn and receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Anthony McClung.

What To Watch Out For: The outcome at Nippert Stadium could depend on which team’s star defensive lineman can wreak the most havoc on the opposing offensive line. Youngstown State found a way to neutralize Pitt DT Aaron Donald, but when No. 97 gets hot he has the ability to take over a game with his quickness and penetration. For Cincinnati, it’s a huge year for one-time LB Walter Stewart, who now lines up at end. He’s capable of whipping the Panthers off the edge and forcing Sunseri to scramble for cover.

What Will Happen: It’s gut-check time for Pitt. The Panthers, though, will come up a little short, going on the road to face a team that’s had the entire offseason to prepare for this opener. Legaux is an underrated signal-caller, aided by the offseason competition he felt from teammate Brendon Kay. He’ll play with more confidence and poise than he did in 2011, making plays with his feet and deftly getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Graham’s first 100-yard game of the year won’t be enough to avoid an 0-2 Pitt start.

CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 30 … Pittsburgh 24
Line: Cincinnati -4; O/U: 49
Must Watch Rating (5 – Phineas & Ferb, 1 – Steve Harvey): 2.5