Week 2 – Iowa State at Iowa

Week 2 CFN Fearless Prediction – Iowa State at Iowa

Iowa State (1-0) at Iowa (1-0) Sept. 8, 3:30, BTN

Here’s The Deal: Last year Iowa State pulled off a bit of an upset over the in-state rival in a 44-41 thriller, but this time around the expectations have shifted. The Cyclones have had their moments against the Hawkeyes over the last decade, but even when they won they were the second banana. Unlike last season, Iowa comes into this year’s matchup limping a bit, needing a late touchdown run to get by Northern Illinois in a struggle, while Iowa State is as strong as it’s been in several years. They’re loaded with experience, depth and confidence coming off a good 38-23 win over Tulsa, but even with all the positives this could be a must win. The talent level isn’t high enough to make too much of a dent in a loaded Big 12, but with winnable home games against Western Illinois and Texas Tech to follow, a 4-0 start will be expected if ISU can come out of Iowa City with a win.

The Hawkeyes seem to have a way of coming through just when the expectations are the lowest. No one thinks Iowa is going to challenge Michigan, Michigan State or Nebraska for the Legends title, and the Northern Illinois game did little to change preseason prognostications, but there’s a chance to make some big noise over the first half of the season with a win over the Cyclones. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team, and Minnesota has given the Iowa problems over the last two years, but with those two, Central Michigan and a limping Penn State coming up at home 6-1 – Iowa isn’t going to win at Michigan State – is possible. However, beating Iowa State is a key step.

Why Iowa State Might Win: The Iowa offensive line was a disaster against Northern Illinois. The Huskie pass rush was expected to get into the backfield on a regular basis, but the Hawkeyes allowed a whopping six sacks to kill a passing game that didn’t go anywhere. The Cyclone defense did a decent job against Tulsa coming up with two sacks and seven tackles for loss in the win. The pressure helped lead the way to two picks and gave the Golden Hurricane fits on third downs stalling drives time and again. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg wasn’t able to hit any deep passes, and with a lack of mobility, he could be a bit of a sitting duck if Iowa State has the pass rush dialed in. The Hawkeye running game worked, but it could have a problem against the loaded Cyclone linebacking corps that has seen more than its share of games against Iowa. However …

Why Iowa Might Win: Iowa State didn’t exactly stop the Tulsa running game. Trey Watts ran for 125 yards highlighted by a 77-yard dash, and Ja’Terian Douglas managed 55 yards and a score. The Iowa running game that was such a major concern to start the season came up big with Damon Bullock tearing off 150 yards and a game-winning touchdown. No, the Iowa offensive line didn’t have a great game, but it managed to do just enough to get Bullock moving when the offense needed to take control, holding on to the ball for close to 39 minutes. Defensively, Iowa’s secondary didn’t let NIU do much of anything giving up just 54 yards through the air. With the defensive back seven one of the team’s biggest strengths, Iowa should be able to keep down …

What To Watch Out For: Iowa State quarterback Steele Jantz. At 6-3 and 224 pounds the former JUCO transfer has excellent size and is dangerous when he gets on the move, but last week it was his passing that got the offense rolling completing 32-of-45 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns with a pick. He did a terrific job of spreading the ball around and showed a nice knack for keeping the chains moving when he had to. Last year he threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for 42 yards, in the win over the Hawkeyes, and he’s going to have to be sharp again.

Iowa has to get more of a deep passing game going. Senior Keenan Davis is expected to be a deep threat, and while he was targeted last week, he only managed five catches for 41 yards. Vandenberg has the deep arm, and now it’s up to Davis to take the top off the Iowa State defense to open things up for Bullock.

What Will Happen: Iowa will find a way. Iowa State has the experience on defense and showed solid balance on offense, but even though the Hawkeyes have several major flaws and it’s not going to be consistent throughout the season, this week Vandenberg will be a little better, the secondary will hold down the Cyclone receiving corps, and winning the turnover battle will tip the scales.

CFN Prediction: Iowa 27 … Iowa State 23
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Iowa -5.5 O/U: 48
Must Watch Rating (5 – Phineas & Ferb, 1 – Steve Harvey): 3.5