Week 2 Texas Tech at Texas State

Week 2 CFN Fearless Prediction – Texas Tech at Texas State

- CFN Fearless Predictions

Texas Tech (1-0) at Texas State (1-0) Sept. 8, 7:00, ESPN3

Here’s The Deal: The opening games couldn’t have gone any better for both Texas Tech and Texas State to kick things off. Texas Tech wanted to show a little bit of a running game and a run defense, and while going against Northwestern State was hardly anything to chirp about, after last year, any production from the defense was going to be a plus allowing just 84 yards. But that was to be expected, while Texas State pulled off the shocker.

The new WAC member came out roaring against Houston in a 30-13 blowout with the Dennis Franchione running game ripping up 248 yards and the defense stuffing the supposedly high-octane Cougar offense. Is the bar going to be set higher now considering the hope was to merely be able to compete? With Stephen F. Austin up next and a slew of winnable WAC games, the Bobcats might be just good enough with all their experience and their quirky ground attack to come up with a huge year. If Texas State plays like it did last week, and if Texas Tech regresses to the way it played over the second half of last year, this could be the game everyone is talking about on Sunday morning.

Why Texas Tech Might Win: The defense really and truly might be better. After a nightmare of a 2011 season, a special effort was made this offseason to start coming up with a few stops here and there. With nine starters back, the defense looked like it knew what it was doing in the warm-up last week and really and truly might be okay. It’s not going to be a killer, but it should be better. After Texas State’s performance last week, the Red Raiders are going to take this game seriously and should have a line on stopping the running game. Unlike Houston, Tech has the linebacking corps with three nice returning starters to potentially keep the Bobcat running game from cranking out the big yards in chunks like it did last week. Yes, Texas State came up with a great defensive performance last week, but there’s some thought that it was a function of a sputtering Houston offense more than anything the Bobcats did on D.

Why Texas State Might Win: Let’s just say Texas Tech still has to prove itself defensively. Northwestern State is Northwestern State, and after finishing dead last in the nation in run defense allowing 33 touchdowns and 300 yards or more in four of the final five games, there’s still a prove-it factor to the Red Raider D, even with its slew of returning starters. Texas State is full of veteran, is well coached, and was razor-sharp last week holding on to the ball for over 43 minutes with the defense coming up with stop after stop – the Houston high-octane passing game converted just one of 13 third down chances – while the offense rumbled at will taking advantage of every opportunity. If TSU could do that against Houston’s offense, could it stifle the Texas Tech version? It’s virtually the same type of passing game.

What To Watch Out For: Texas State senior running back Marcus Curry had a nice season in 2011 finishing second on the team with 637 rushing yards and three scores, but he took his game to another level last week tearing off 131 yards and two touchdowns, including a 73-yard dash, on just 14 carries, and he caught two passes for 23 yards and a score. At 5-11 and 210 pounds he has decent size and great quickness, and has he showed, he can find a seam and bust off a big run by getting through the wash.

For good and bad, the leading tackler last year was a free safety. For good and bad to start this year, senior Cody Davis was the leading tackler again making nine tackles At 6-2 and 203 pounds he has great size, great range, and a nose for getting around every play and making the stop, especially in the open field. However, he has to do far more against the pass and he has to be the sheriff of a secondary that gave up too many deep passes. This week it will be his job to keep the Bobcat running game from cranking out anything big.

What Will Happen: Watch out. Texas State has the experience and the makeup to give Texas Tech a really, really hard time. But Texas Tech isn’t Houston and should be able to get the attack moving. The Bobcats got an offensive coordinator fired last week and have the offense to make this a fight at home. Tech will win, but it will be a fight.

CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 38 … Texas State 21
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Texas Tech -17.5 O/U: 59.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Phineas & Ferb, 1 – Steve Harvey): 3