One new piece of analysis I'm doing this year is looking at some of key matchups and what Compu-Picks thinks the results of these matchups will say about the rest of the season. I've done this a couple times already (the latest was a look at key week two matchups), and this a continuation of the series.
Now that week two is in the books, I'm going to take a look at some key upsets and what we can learn from them. Please note, however, that this analysis is entirely based on the preseason simulations; the actual scores, stats, levels of dominance etc. have NOT been considered for this analysis.
I'll start with the most extreme upset of the weekend, UL-Monroe beating Arkansas as about a 30-point underdog. The below table shows the win likelihoods for each game on ULM's schedule, as well as an aggregate expected win value (one for all games, one for all games excluding Arkansas; this is meant to highlight the predictive impact that a win here has on all other games).
In addition, there are three columns here: the right-most column shows the original predictions, knowing nothing about any actual season results. The other two columns show projections given either a win or a loss against Arkansas. As you can see, beating Arkansas is worth nearly two full wins for ULM on top of the actual game result, for a total impact of almost three. That's how much we can potentially learn from an upset of this magnitude against ULM's schedule.
This is especially potent since it's ULM's first result; had ULM played a few other games before this one, we'd have more data on them and the impact of this specific game would be less. For instance, if they'd played Auburn, Baylor, Tulane and MTSU and gone 2-2, then even given a win here it would be fairly clear that there's no chance they're secretly an elite team, and just as clear that they're not atrocious. Without any games played, though, both possibilities are more on the table, and therefore this data point means more (at least, until they get around to playing a couple more games and we start to see more data).
| La.-Monroe 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Arkansas |
| Arkansas Result | W | L | Any |
| Win % vs |
| Arkansas | 100% | 0% | 7% |
| Auburn | 8% | 2% | 3% |
| Baylor | 50% | 27% | 29% |
| Tulane | 69% | 50% | 51% |
| M. Tenn. St. | 81% | 70% | 71% |
| Fla. Atlantic | 91% | 77% | 78% |
| W. Kentucky | 44% | 22% | 24% |
| South Alabama | 95% | 88% | 88% |
| La.-Lafayette | 65% | 45% | 47% |
| Arkansas St. | 52% | 32% | 33% |
| North Texas | 85% | 68% | 69% |
| FIU | 54% | 28% | 30% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Arkansas | 6.93 | 5.10 | 5.23 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Arkansas | 7.93 | 5.10 | 5.30 |
It's a similar story for Arkansas, except in reverse. Here, the Hogs have already played a game against a AA team, so instead of three columns we see four. Again, the right-most column is the season projection without any actual data. The next column is the adjusted projection given a win over their AA opponent. Given that the Hogs were basically given 100% odds of winning that game (the actual projected upset chance was 0.4%, which rounded down to 0%), it's not suprising that there was basically no movement in their win projections given the AA win.
There is, however, substantial movement given the loss to UL-Monroe. As you can see, there is nearly a two-game difference in Arkansas's win projections given a win versus a loss here (note that both the W and L columns are given the AA win; I've already thrown out the handful of scenarios where the Hogs lost the AA game, since we already know that didn't happen).
Losing to ULM means that a true disaster season is absolutely on the table, and a surprising BCS run simply isn't going to happen. If they're not good enough to beat ULM, they're not likely to be good enough to beat Bama, South Carolina, Miss St, or LSU, much less all of them. Personally, I think that a win expectation of 4.34 is too low, but it's still a good indication of just how much a loss like this can tell you about a team's chances going forward.
| Arkansas 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs La.-Monroe given 1-0 start |
| La.-Monroe Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win % vs |
| La.-Monroe | 100% | 0% | 93% | 93% |
| Alabama | 21% | 9% | 20% | 20% |
| Rutgers | 68% | 45% | 67% | 66% |
| Texas A&M | 54% | 30% | 52% | 52% |
| Auburn | 23% | 7% | 22% | 22% |
| Kentucky | 89% | 73% | 88% | 88% |
| Mississippi | 88% | 71% | 87% | 87% |
| Tulsa | 77% | 55% | 76% | 76% |
| South Carolina | 33% | 13% | 31% | 31% |
| Mississippi St. | 33% | 14% | 31% | 31% |
| LSU | 38% | 16% | 36% | 36% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for La.-Monroe | 6.24 | 4.34 | 6.11 | 6.10 |
| Total E(Wins) - including La.-Monroe | 7.24 | 4.34 | 7.04 | 7.02 |
Next up is Utah-Utah St. Again, this one had a major impact. While the line was only -7, Compu-Picks gave Utah St a much smaller shot at victory. So when they pulled the upset, there was a more substantial revision to the projections for both teams than a simple 7-point upset would otherwise suggest.
| Utah 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Utah St. given 1-0 start |
| Utah St. Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win % vs |
| Utah St. | 100% | 0% | 90% | 90% |
| BYU | 57% | 35% | 55% | 55% |
| Arizona St. | 92% | 80% | 91% | 90% |
| USC | 56% | 34% | 54% | 54% |
| UCLA | 59% | 39% | 57% | 57% |
| Oregon St. | 66% | 42% | 63% | 63% |
| California | 92% | 77% | 90% | 90% |
| Washington St. | 93% | 85% | 92% | 92% |
| Washington | 56% | 32% | 54% | 54% |
| Arizona | 96% | 87% | 95% | 95% |
| Colorado | 96% | 88% | 95% | 95% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Utah St. | 8.64 | 7.00 | 8.47 | 8.45 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Utah St. | 9.64 | 7.00 | 9.36 | 9.35 |
| Utah 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Utah St. given 1-0 start |
| Utah St. Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win % vs |
| Utah St. | 100% | 0% | 90% | 90% |
| BYU | 57% | 35% | 55% | 55% |
| Arizona St. | 92% | 80% | 91% | 90% |
| USC | 56% | 34% | 54% | 54% |
| UCLA | 59% | 39% | 57% | 57% |
| Oregon St. | 66% | 42% | 63% | 63% |
| California | 92% | 77% | 90% | 90% |
| Washington St. | 93% | 85% | 92% | 92% |
| Washington | 56% | 32% | 54% | 54% |
| Arizona | 96% | 87% | 95% | 95% |
| Colorado | 96% | 88% | 95% | 95% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Utah St. | 8.64 | 7.00 | 8.47 | 8.45 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Utah St. | 9.64 | 7.00 | 9.36 | 9.35 |
| Utah St. 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Utah given 1-0 start |
| Utah Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 90% |
| Win % vs |
| Utah | 100% | 0% | 11% | 10% |
| Wisconsin | 25% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
| Colorado St. | 81% | 62% | 64% | 61% |
| UNLV | 96% | 90% | 90% | 88% |
| BYU | 15% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
| San Jose St. | 77% | 62% | 64% | 61% |
| New Mexico St. | 99% | 96% | 96% | 95% |
| Texas-San Antonio | 92% | 84% | 85% | 82% |
| Tex St-San Mar | 94% | 90% | 90% | 88% |
| Louisiana Tech | 37% | 21% | 23% | 21% |
| Idaho | 94% | 86% | 87% | 85% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Utah | 8.10 | 7.07 | 7.19 | 6.89 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Utah | 9.10 | 7.07 | 7.30 | 6.99 |
Maryland-Temple is another game where a meaningful upset had a material effect on the win projections:
| Maryland 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Temple given 1-0 start |
| Temple Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 86% |
| Win % vs |
| Temple | 100% | 0% | 24% | 22% |
| Connecticut | 58% | 42% | 46% | 43% |
| West Virginia | 10% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Wake Forest | 61% | 46% | 50% | 46% |
| Virginia | 52% | 36% | 40% | 36% |
| N. Carolina St. | 51% | 37% | 40% | 37% |
| Boston College | 13% | 6% | 8% | 7% |
| Georgia Tech | 29% | 15% | 19% | 17% |
| Clemson | 8% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Florida St. | 7% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| North Carolina | 55% | 37% | 42% | 38% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Temple | 4.44 | 3.26 | 3.54 | 3.20 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Temple | 5.44 | 3.26 | 3.78 | 3.42 |
| Temple 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Maryland given 1-0 start |
| Maryland Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
| Win % vs |
| Maryland | 100% | 0% | 79% | 78% |
| Penn St. | 62% | 45% | 59% | 58% |
| South Florida | 50% | 31% | 46% | 45% |
| Connecticut | 61% | 45% | 58% | 57% |
| Rutgers | 39% | 26% | 36% | 35% |
| Pittsburgh | 39% | 23% | 35% | 35% |
| Louisville | 31% | 18% | 29% | 28% |
| Cincinnati | 51% | 33% | 48% | 47% |
| Army | 60% | 44% | 56% | 56% |
| Syracuse | 78% | 64% | 75% | 74% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Maryland | 5.71 | 4.29 | 5.42 | 5.31 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Maryland | 6.71 | 4.29 | 6.21 | 6.10 |
Next up is Rice-Kansas. Here, the upset was pretty meaningful, but since most games for both teams are either very likely wins or very likely losses, the impact was actually not that large:
| Rice 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Kansas given 1-0 start |
| Kansas Result | W Given 0-1 | L Given 0-1 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| UCLA - already played | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Win % vs |
| Kansas | 100% | 0% | 28% | 31% |
| Louisiana Tech | 22% | 13% | 16% | 18% |
| Marshall | 63% | 48% | 53% | 55% |
| Houston | 48% | 34% | 38% | 41% |
| Memphis | 86% | 75% | 78% | 80% |
| Texas-San Antonio | 92% | 84% | 87% | 88% |
| Tulsa | 16% | 11% | 12% | 14% |
| Southern Miss | 35% | 24% | 27% | 30% |
| Tulane | 57% | 42% | 46% | 49% |
| SMU | 55% | 41% | 45% | 48% |
| UTEP | 54% | 39% | 43% | 46% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Kansas | 5.28 | 4.11 | 4.44 | 4.83 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Kansas | 6.28 | 4.11 | 4.73 | 5.14 |
| Kansas 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Rice given 1-0 start |
| Rice Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% |
| Win % vs |
| Rice | 100% | 0% | 71% | 69% |
| TCU | 8% | 4% | 7% | 7% |
| Northern Illinois | 31% | 15% | 26% | 25% |
| Kansas St. | 18% | 11% | 16% | 15% |
| Oklahoma St. | 19% | 10% | 17% | 16% |
| Oklahoma | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Texas | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Baylor | 30% | 18% | 26% | 25% |
| Texas Tech | 26% | 12% | 22% | 20% |
| Iowa St. | 54% | 39% | 50% | 47% |
| West Virginia | 6% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Rice | 2.99 | 2.11 | 2.74 | 2.56 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Rice | 3.99 | 2.11 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
Next up is UNC-Wake, a game where the W/L result went as predicted (Compu-Picks took Wake), but not by nearly as much as predicted (Compu-Picks thought Wake would win easily). Here's a good example of when to take the system's conclusions with a grain of salt; since the result was very nearly a loss, the "true" interpretation of the win likelihoods going forward is probably a midpoint between what you'd expect given a win (regardless of score) and a loss (again regardless of score).
| North Carolina 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Wake Forest given 1-0 start |
| Wake Forest Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 89% |
| Win % vs |
| Wake Forest | 100% | 0% | 34% | 32% |
| Louisville | 22% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
| East Carolina | 66% | 50% | 56% | 53% |
| Idaho | 89% | 84% | 86% | 83% |
| Virginia Tech | 27% | 17% | 20% | 18% |
| Miami (Fla.) | 31% | 19% | 23% | 22% |
| Duke | 35% | 22% | 27% | 25% |
| N. Carolina St. | 52% | 36% | 41% | 39% |
| Georgia Tech | 28% | 18% | 21% | 20% |
| Virginia | 53% | 37% | 43% | 40% |
| Maryland | 74% | 60% | 65% | 62% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Wake Forest | 5.78 | 4.53 | 4.95 | 4.63 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Wake Forest | 6.78 | 4.53 | 5.30 | 4.95 |
| Wake Forest 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs North Carolina given 1-0 start |
| North Carolina Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% |
| Win % vs |
| North Carolina | 100% | 0% | 70% | 68% |
| Florida St. | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Army | 65% | 50% | 61% | 59% |
| Duke | 54% | 37% | 49% | 47% |
| Maryland | 60% | 45% | 56% | 54% |
| Virginia | 59% | 44% | 54% | 53% |
| Clemson | 17% | 9% | 14% | 14% |
| Boston College | 30% | 17% | 26% | 25% |
| N. Carolina St. | 43% | 27% | 38% | 37% |
| Notre Dame | 17% | 7% | 14% | 13% |
| Vanderbilt | 26% | 15% | 23% | 22% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for North Carolina | 4.74 | 3.52 | 4.37 | 4.21 |
| Total E(Wins) - including North Carolina | 5.74 | 3.52 | 5.07 | 4.89 |
Finally we come to the last upset of Saturday night: Arizona over Oklahoma St. Here, Compu-Picks was simply wrong, and as such, you can see a pretty big shift in the projections for each school. It's not yet clear whether the story here is that Arizona is surprisingly good, Oklahoma St is surprisingly bad, it was just a wacky upset, or some combination of the three, but even so you can see a pretty big shift as a result of the upset.
| Oklahoma St. 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Arizona given 1-0 start |
| Arizona Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| AA - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win % vs |
| Arizona | 100% | 0% | 89% | 89% |
| La.-Lafayette | 92% | 80% | 91% | 91% |
| Texas | 27% | 14% | 25% | 25% |
| Kansas | 86% | 68% | 84% | 84% |
| Iowa St. | 92% | 78% | 91% | 90% |
| TCU | 43% | 25% | 41% | 41% |
| Kansas St. | 61% | 37% | 58% | 58% |
| West Virginia | 58% | 35% | 55% | 55% |
| Texas Tech | 82% | 67% | 80% | 80% |
| Oklahoma | 15% | 6% | 14% | 14% |
| Baylor | 79% | 51% | 76% | 76% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Arizona | 7.35 | 5.61 | 7.16 | 7.14 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Arizona | 8.35 | 5.61 | 8.05 | 8.03 |
| Arizona 2012 Season Projections based on W/L vs Oklahoma St. given 1-0 start |
| Oklahoma St. Result | W Given 1-0 | L Given 1-0 | Any Given 1-0 | Any |
| Toledo - already played | 100% | 100% | 100% | 49% |
| Win % vs |
| Oklahoma St. | 100% | 0% | 16% | 11% |
| Oregon | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Oregon St. | 52% | 32% | 35% | 27% |
| Stanford | 9% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Washington | 40% | 23% | 26% | 20% |
| USC | 29% | 12% | 15% | 10% |
| UCLA | 21% | 10% | 12% | 8% |
| Colorado | 93% | 82% | 84% | 77% |
| Utah | 18% | 6% | 8% | 5% |
| Arizona St. | 82% | 70% | 72% | 64% |
| AA | 97% | 94% | 95% | 90% |
| Total E(Wins) - except for Oklahoma St. | 5.43 | 4.32 | 4.50 | 3.53 |
| Total E(Wins) - including Oklahoma St. | 6.43 | 4.32 | 4.67 | 3.64 |
I thought about also showing this week's AA losses, but there were so many that it would have just clogged the article.
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
