Game Of The Week - Alabama at Arkansas

Week 3 CFN Fearless Prediction – Alabama at Arkansas

- CFN Fearless Predictions

Alabama (2-0) at Arkansas (1-1) Sept. 15, 3:30, CBS

Here’s The Deal: At the end of the day, the Arkansas gag against ULM didn’t really matter.

The Hogs’ stunning 34-31 overtime loss to the Warhawks put a damper on what was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the season, and while it certainly brought down the excitement, everything will turn back around if Arkansas can beat the No. 1 Tide for the first time since 2006.

No, this didn’t look like a national title caliber team in any way last week, but if the Hogs can get by Alabama, beat LSU to close things out, and win road games over Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina and Mississippi State on the way to the SEC title, then September 8th never existed. Of course, that’s getting about 683 miles ahead of the task at hand. Just showing up and not getting obliterated by Bama is going to be hard enough.

Alabama is in a strange place, both good and bad. The team appeared to be completely and totally locked in over the first two games, dominating Michigan to start things out and then playing a full sixty minutes in a 35-0 win over Western Kentucky. The intensity is at a national title level, and there isn’t any resting on the laurels of a national championship, but is the team strung too tight? Head coach Nick Saban blasted the media for daring to think his team is good, and it’s absolutely impossible for any team to stay at a high level of focus over the course of a long season.

With Arkansas losing last week could the Tide let down just a little bit? Will the team be able to handle any adversity considering all the pressure that’s on in a win-in-dominant-fashion-or-bust campaign? When 41-14 against Michigan isn’t good enough for the coaching staff, it’s hard to ever define success.

While this might be the be-all-end-all game for the Hogs in terms kickstarting the season again, it’s just a step for the Tide. With home games against Florida Atlantic and Ole Miss to follow, the rest of the month should be easy before going to Missouri and Tennessee, but every week is being treated like a big one for Bama. It’s past the point of needing to make big statements, but if things go according to plan, this should be another impressive outing. Considering the Hogs couldn’t close out a Sun Belt team, it’s going to take a special effort to pull off the shocker.

Why Alabama Might Win: Can the Arkansas defensive line hold up? It’s the big issue for every team trying to deal with the NFL offensive line the Tide has put together, and while the Hogs haven’t been tested so far against the run, the pass rush needs to keep up the pressure while also hoping the secondary plays far, far better. Despite coming up with six sacks in the first two games, the Arkansas defensive back seven has been picked apart with ULM’s Kolton Browning bombing away at will in the comeback. The Hogs won’t get nearly enough pressure on Bama’s AJ McCarron, and the secondary that lost corner Tevin Mitchel last week to a frightening neck injury is going to struggle.

The bigger issue could be mistakes. The Hogs couldn’t stop fumbling in the opener against Jacksonville State, putting four on the ground and losing three, and they gave away two picks. Meanwhile, the defense hasn’t been able to come up with nearly enough big plays with just two takeaways. Throw in the 15 penalties, and the Razorbacks haven’t been sharp. To beat Alabama – who’s second in the nation in turnover margin - they’re going to have to be perfect.

Why Arkansas Might Win: No one has tried punching the Tide in the mouth. How do you beat a bully? You bully the bully, and while Arkansas doesn’t have an offensive line anywhere near as talented as Alabama’s, it’s not a weakness by any stretch and it has to try to penetrate the impenetrable by pounding and pounding some more. The fatal flaw for the Hogs last week was their stunning ignorance of the ground attack, running Knile Davis just 16 times and with a mere 26 carries as a team. Against Bama, if Arkansas can’t create several third-and-shorts and can’t give quarterback Brandon Allen – if it’s Allen under center - some manageable situations, it’s going to be ugly.

It’s not like Alabama doesn’t have a slew of weapons to fill in any gaps on offense, but losing second-leading rusher Jalston Fowler to a knee injury is a problem. He was a key part of the system as the main fullback; could his loss affect the power running game? Arkansas has to hope so. The Hog defensive tackles are strong enough to hold up, and if they can make the Tide offense work wide, the linebackers that had such a hard time last week should be more focused and far better.

What To Watch Out For: Arkansas star quarterback Tyler Wilson is trying to get back to normal after getting knocked out of the ULM game with a head injury, but he didn’t practice early in the week and he has said he hasn’t been quite right. He had his worst game of last year against the Tide with just 185 yards and two touchdowns with a pick, but the team can’t rely on him to be back, and if he is able to go he’s not likely to be 100% against, possibly, the best defense in college football. Enter Brandon Allen, who was thrown to the wolves last week and was awful, completing 6-of-20 passes for 85 yards with a touchdown and a pick.

A 6-3, 212-pounder, the redshirt freshman fits exactly what the program likes in its quarterbacks. He’s a pure pro-style passer who led the way to the state championship after throwing for 3,408 yards and 38 touchdown passes with no picks in his final season. All the pieces are there, but this isn’t a defense to cut your teeth on.

On the flip side, AJ McCarron has been relatively underrated considering he has a national title on his résumé. Out of the spotlight compared to the hype the great defense gets, McCarron has been flawless in his first two games completing 25-of-40 passes for 418 yards and six touchdowns without a pick. He’s getting a ton of time to work, but he’s making every right decision and he has been the perfect leader so far for the nation’s top team.

What Will Happen: Arkansas will play far, far better than it did against ULM, and it will connect on a few haymakers in the first half to throw a bit of a scare into the Tide, and then reality will set in. The Alabama defense will put the clamps down and won’t allow a thing, stopping Davis and Dennis Johnson cold, making the Hogs try to win with their passing game. They won’t be able to do it.

CFN Prediction: Alabama 38 … Arkansas 13
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Alabama -20 O/U: 53.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark in IMAX, 1 – Go On): 5