As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.
The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the 5Dimes lines. I've evaluated and placed each pick into one of four buckets: not sure, lean, lock, and clinched (Houston clinched the under and UTSA the over). My bucketing is somehow arbitrary, of course, but I think it's pretty reasonable at this stage. Here is how the system stands so far:
| Lean/Lock/Clinched | Confidence Level | W | L |
| Lean | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Lock | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Clinched | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lean | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| Lock | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Clinched | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Lean | 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Lock | 3 | 18 | 3 |
| Clinched | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lean | 4 | 20 | 4 |
| Lock | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Clinched | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| | | | |
| Lean | Total | 49 | 28 |
| Lock | Total | 31 | 16 |
| Clinched | Total | 6 | 0 |
And below is the full list of each team and an evaulation of where they stand against their preseason win total from 5Dimes.
The 6 columns are: team; line (what 5Dimes posted back in late August); pick (whether Compu-Picks took the over, the under, or blank if the system passed); confidence level of the preseason pick (1 was the lowest level, 4 the highest), current estimate (win or loss on the pick); and whether the current estimate is a lean, lock, if the outcome has already been clinched.
| Team | Line | Pick | Confidence | Current Estimate | Lean/Lock/Clinched |
| Boston College | 5.5 | Over | 4 | L | Lock |
| Clemson | 8.5 | | | | |
| Florida State | 10 | Over | 1 | | |
| Maryland | 4.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lean |
| North Carolina State | 7.5 | Under | 3 | | |
| Wake Forest | 5.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Duke | 3.5 | Over | 4 | W | Lean |
| Georgia Tech | 7.5 | | | | |
| Miami (Florida) | 6.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| North Carolina | 8 | Under | 4 | W | Lean |
| Virginia | 6.5 | Under | 3 | | |
| Virginia Tech | 9 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Baylor | 6.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Iowa State | 4.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Kansas | 3.5 | | | | |
| Kansas State | 7.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lean |
| Oklahoma | 9.5 | Over | 2 | | |
| Oklahoma State | 8.5 | | | | |
| Texas Christian | 8 | Over | 2 | | |
| Texas | 9 | Over | 2 | | |
| Texas Tech | 6.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| West Virginia | 8.5 | | | | |
| Illinois | 6.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Indiana | 3.5 | Over | 1 | | |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lean |
| Penn State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Purdue | 6.5 | | | | |
| Wisconsin | 9.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lean |
| Iowa | 7.5 | Over | 1 | L | Lean |
| Michigan | 8.5 | | | | |
| Michigan State | 8.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Minnesota | 5.5 | | | | |
| Nebraska | 9 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Northwestern | 6.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Notre Dame | 7.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| California | 6.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| Oregon | 10.5 | Over | 1 | | |
| Oregon State | 4.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lock |
| Stanford | 7.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lock |
| Washington | 7 | | | | |
| Washington State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Arizona | 5.5 | Under | 3 | L | Lean |
| Arizona State | 5 | Under | 3 | L | Lean |
| Colorado | 3.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lock |
| UCLA | 6.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lock |
| Southern California | 10.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Utah | 7.5 | Over | 3 | | |
| Florida | 8 | Over | 2 | | |
| Georgia | 9.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Kentucky | 5.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| Missouri | 7 | | | | |
| South Carolina | 8.5 | | | | |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | Under | 3 | | |
| Vanderbilt | 6.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lean |
| Alabama | 10.5 | | | | |
| Arkansas | 8.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lock |
| Auburn | 7 | Over | 3 | L | Lock |
| Louisiana State | 0 | | | | |
| Mississippi | 5.5 | Under | 3 | | |
| Mississippi State | 7.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Texas A&M | 6.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| Cincinnati | 7.5 | | | | |
| Connecticut | 5.5 | | | | |
| Louisville | 8.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | | | | |
| Rutgers | 7.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| South Florida | 8 | | | | |
| Syracuse | 5.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lean |
| Temple | 4.5 | Over | 3 | L | Lean |
| Army | 5.5 | Over | 1 | L | Lean |
| Brigham Young | 8.5 | Over | 2 | | |
| Navy | 6.5 | Over | 1 | | |
| Air Force | 5.5 | Over | 4 | W | Lean |
| Boise State | 9.5 | | | | |
| Colorado State | 6.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Fresno State | 7.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Hawaii | 4.5 | Over | 3 | | |
| Nevada | 7.5 | Under | 4 | L | Lean |
| New Mexico | 2.5 | | | | |
| San Diego State | 5.5 | Over | 2 | | |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 4.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lock |
| Central Florida | 8.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| East Carolina | 5.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Houston | 9.5 | Under | 4 | W | Clinched |
| Marshall | 6.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Memphis | 2.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| Rice | 3.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lean |
| Southern Methodist | 6.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Southern Mississippi | 8.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Tulane | 2.5 | Over | 4 | | |
| Tulsa | 7.5 | Over | 3 | | |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 3.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| Texas-El Paso | 4.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| UMass | 1.5 | Over | 1 | | |
| Akron | 2.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Ball State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lean |
| Bowling Green | 7.5 | | | | |
| Buffalo | 4.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Central Michigan | 4.5 | Over | 4 | | |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Kent | 5.5 | | | | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 5.5 | Over | 3 | | |
| Northern Illinois | 8.5 | | | | |
| Ohio | 9.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Toledo | 7.5 | | | | |
| Western Michigan | 8.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lean |
| Arkansas State | 8.5 | Under | 2 | | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7.5 | | | | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 4.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| Middle Tennessee State | 4.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| North Texas | 5.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| Troy | 5.5 | | | | |
| Florida Atlantic | 3.5 | | | | |
| Florida International | 7.5 | | | | |
| Western Kentucky | 6.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| South Alabama | 2.5 | | | | |
| Idaho | 4.5 | | | | |
| Louisiana Tech | 8.5 | Over | 1 | | |
| New Mexico State | 5.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lean |
| San Jose State | 5.5 | Under | 1 | | |
| Utah State | 7.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lock |
| Texas St | 4.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| UTSA | 2.5 | Over | 2 | W | Clinched |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
