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Compu-Picks 2012 Analysis: Post Week Three

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Sep 16, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Analysis: Looking Back at Compu-Picks' Preseason Win Total Picks After Three Weeks of Play

As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.

The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the 5Dimes lines. I've evaluated and placed each pick into one of four buckets: not sure, lean, lock, and clinched (Houston clinched the under and UTSA the over). My bucketing is somehow arbitrary, of course, but I think it's pretty reasonable at this stage. Here is how the system stands so far:

Lean/Lock/Clinched Confidence Level W L
Lean 1 6 7
Lock 1 3 1
Clinched 1 0 0
Lean 2 14 8
Lock 2 2 8
Clinched 2 2 0
Lean 3 9 9
Lock 3 18 3
Clinched 3 0 0
Lean 4 20 4
Lock 4 8 4
Clinched 4 4 0
Lean Total 49 28
Lock Total 31 16
Clinched Total 6 0

And below is the full list of each team and an evaulation of where they stand against their preseason win total from 5Dimes.

The 6 columns are: team; line (what 5Dimes posted back in late August); pick (whether Compu-Picks took the over, the under, or blank if the system passed); confidence level of the preseason pick (1 was the lowest level, 4 the highest), current estimate (win or loss on the pick); and whether the current estimate is a lean, lock, if the outcome has already been clinched.

Team Line Pick Confidence Current Estimate Lean/Lock/Clinched
Boston College 5.5 Over 4 L Lock
Clemson 8.5
Florida State 10 Over 1
Maryland 4.5 Under 2 L Lean
North Carolina State 7.5 Under 3
Wake Forest 5.5 Under 1 L Lean
Duke 3.5 Over 4 W Lean
Georgia Tech 7.5
Miami (Florida) 6.5 Under 2
North Carolina 8 Under 4 W Lean
Virginia 6.5 Under 3
Virginia Tech 9 Under 2 W Lean
Baylor 6.5 Under 2
Iowa State 4.5 Under 1 L Lean
Kansas 3.5
Kansas State 7.5 Under 2 L Lean
Oklahoma 9.5 Over 2
Oklahoma State 8.5
Texas Christian 8 Over 2
Texas 9 Over 2
Texas Tech 6.5 Under 1
West Virginia 8.5
Illinois 6.5 Under 1 W Lean
Indiana 3.5 Over 1
Ohio State 9.5 Over 1 W Lean
Penn State 5.5 Under 2 W Lean
Purdue 6.5
Wisconsin 9.5 Under 3 W Lean
Iowa 7.5 Over 1 L Lean
Michigan 8.5
Michigan State 8.5 Under 2
Minnesota 5.5
Nebraska 9 Under 1 W Lean
Northwestern 6.5 Under 2 L Lock
Notre Dame 7.5 Under 1 L Lean
California 6.5 Under 4 W Lock
Oregon 10.5 Over 1
Oregon State 4.5 Over 3 W Lock
Stanford 7.5 Over 3 W Lock
Washington 7
Washington State 5.5 Under 2 W Lean
Arizona 5.5 Under 3 L Lean
Arizona State 5 Under 3 L Lean
Colorado 3.5 Under 1 W Lock
UCLA 6.5 Over 3 W Lock
Southern California 10.5 Under 3 W Lock
Utah 7.5 Over 3
Florida 8 Over 2
Georgia 9.5 Under 1 L Lean
Kentucky 5.5 Under 4 W Lock
Missouri 7
South Carolina 8.5
Tennessee 7.5 Under 3
Vanderbilt 6.5 Over 2 L Lean
Alabama 10.5
Arkansas 8.5 Under 2 W Lock
Auburn 7 Over 3 L Lock
Louisiana State 0
Mississippi 5.5 Under 3
Mississippi State 7.5 Over 2 W Lean
Texas A&M 6.5 Under 1
Cincinnati 7.5
Connecticut 5.5
Louisville 8.5 Under 1 L Lean
Pittsburgh 7
Rutgers 7.5 Over 2 W Lean
South Florida 8
Syracuse 5.5 Under 3 W Lean
Temple 4.5 Over 3 L Lean
Army 5.5 Over 1 L Lean
Brigham Young 8.5 Over 2
Navy 6.5 Over 1
Air Force 5.5 Over 4 W Lean
Boise State 9.5
Colorado State 6.5 Under 3 W Lock
Fresno State 7.5 Under 2
Hawaii 4.5 Over 3
Nevada 7.5 Under 4 L Lean
New Mexico 2.5
San Diego State 5.5 Over 2
Nevada-Las Vegas 4.5 Under 3 W Lock
Wyoming 5.5 Over 2 L Lock
Central Florida 8.5 Under 1
East Carolina 5.5 Over 2 W Lean
Houston 9.5 Under 4 W Clinched
Marshall 6.5 Under 2
Memphis 2.5 Under 1
Rice 3.5 Over 3 W Lean
Southern Methodist 6.5 Under 1 W Lean
Southern Mississippi 8.5 Under 1 W Lean
Tulane 2.5 Over 4
Tulsa 7.5 Over 3
Alabama-Birmingham 3.5 Under 1
Texas-El Paso 4.5 Under 1
UMass 1.5 Over 1
Akron 2.5 Under 2
Ball State 5.5 Under 2 L Lean
Bowling Green 7.5
Buffalo 4.5 Under 2
Central Michigan 4.5 Over 4
Eastern Michigan 5.5 Under 2 L Lock
Kent 5.5
Miami (Ohio) 5.5 Over 3
Northern Illinois 8.5
Ohio 9.5 Under 2 L Lock
Toledo 7.5
Western Michigan 8.5 Under 4 W Lean
Arkansas State 8.5 Under 2
Louisiana-Lafayette 7.5
Louisiana-Monroe 4.5 Over 1 W Lock
Middle Tennessee State 4.5 Under 2 W Lean
North Texas 5.5 Under 1
Troy 5.5
Florida Atlantic 3.5
Florida International 7.5
Western Kentucky 6.5 Over 1 W Lock
South Alabama 2.5
Idaho 4.5
Louisiana Tech 8.5 Over 1
New Mexico State 5.5 Under 4 W Lean
San Jose State 5.5 Under 1
Utah State 7.5 Under 1 L Lock
Texas St 4.5 Under 1 W Lean
UTSA 2.5 Over 2 W Clinched

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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