Week 5 CFN Fearless Predictions – WAC

Posted Sep 28, 2012

Week 5 CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews – WAC

Nevada (3-1) at Texas State (2-1) Sept. 29, 2:00, Longhorn Network

Here's The Deal: It has been a fun ride so far for both teams with Texas State starting out 2-1 with a great rushing day against Houston and a big-time passing attack against Stephen F. Austin, but now Dennis Franchione's club is in for a real test. Can it hold on to the ball and can it keep up the pace better than it did in a blowout loss to Texas Tech? The Bobcats are feeling their way through life in the big leagues, and while this might be the toughest game left on the schedule, that doesn't mean they can't make it interesting. Nevada, however, is coming off a bombing of Hawaii rolling up 355 yards of rushing offense in a 69-24 win. Stefphon Jefferson ran for 170 yards and six touchdowns and caught three passes for 76 yards and a score, and now the nation's leading rusher will try to keep the momentum going in the high-octane Wolf Pack Pistol attack.

What Will Happen: More of the same. Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo has quietly come up with a strong season so far, and now he's going to take away some of the workload from Jefferson. Texas State has had problems with the secondary over the last few weeks after shocking Houston, and Fajardo will take advantage.

CFN Prediction: Nevada 52 … Texas State 20
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Nevada -20 O/U: 64.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Ryder Cup 2012, 1 – SNL Thursday Weekend Update): 2

San Jose State (3-1) at Navy (1-2) Sept. 29, 3:30, CBS Sports Network

Here's The Deal: All of a sudden, with a very, very nice road win at San Diego State, San Jose State is looking more and more like the real deal. Head coach Mike MacIntyre has his offense working, the defense dialed in, and the team playing like a real live contender in its new spot in the Mountain West. The lone loss so far was a 20-17 fight against Stanford that now looks much better than it appeared at the time.

Navy blew away VMU last week but was awful in losses to Notre Dame and Penn State. The hope was that the more physical tone and nature this offseason was going to translate to the field, but it hasn't happened so far with the running game still trying to find its way. The defense hasn't been a bad, but it hasn't been able to overcome a slew of uncharacteristic mistakes from an offense that has lost eight fumbles and thrown two picks so far. With road games against Air Force and Central Michigan looking tough, this might be a must win to avoid an awful start.

What Will Happen: Even with star linebacker Keith Smith hurting with an ankle injury, the San Jose State defensive front will do a great job of getting into the backfield just enough to keep the Navy running game from getting started. Spartan quarterback David Fales has been red hot throwing nine touchdown passes and just two picks in the terrific start. His success will continue.

CFN Prediction: San Jose State 34 … Navy 24
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) San Jose State -2.5 O/U: 58
Must Watch Rating (5 – Ryder Cup 2012, 1 – SNL Thursday Weekend Update): 3

UTSA (4-0) at New Mexico State (1-3) Sept. 29, 8:00

Here's The Deal: Now comes the real test for UTSA. It's been fun so far with a win over South Alabama and some blastings of some mediocre FCS and D-II teams, but now the Roadrunners get to see what they can do against a WAC team. New Mexico State has yet to beat a FBS team and is coming off rough outings against UTEP and New Mexico in rivalry games the team needed. A loss to UTSA would be devastating with three road games in the next four. The defense has to get a lot stronger in a hurry and the O line has to start blocking someone. This might be a make-or-break game for head coach DeWayne Walker.

What Will Happen: The Aggies have to stop a UTSA offense that's been nearly perfectly balanced from the start, but it's going to be the passing game that turns out to be the difference. Andrew Manley will throw for close to 300 yards to make up for the problems the defensive front will have.

CFN Prediction: New Mexico State 34 … UTSA 27
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) New Mexico State -3.5 O/U: 54
Must Watch Rating (5 – Ryder Cup 2012, 1 – SNL Thursday Weekend Update): 2

UNLV (1-3) at Utah State (3-1) Sept. 29, 8:00, ESPN3

Here's The Deal: All of a sudden, UNLV might not be that bad. The Rebels three-overtime loss to a still unbeaten Minnesota looks far better and far stronger now, and after close losses to Northern Arizona and Washington State, a shocking win over Air Force might have turned the Bobby Hauck era around. There's still a lot of work to be done, and the next Mountain West game doesn't come up until mid-October against Nevada, but at the very least the team appears to be far better. This starts a run of four road games in the next five, while this is a home oasis for a Utah State team that goes back on the road for two straight games and three of the next four after dealing with Wisconsin and Colorado State away from Romney. The Aggie offense might not be as strong as it was last season, but the defense has been fantastic.

What Will Happen: UNLV won't come crashing back to earth, but it's going to struggle against a Utah State defense that's dominating on the front seven. The Rebel passing game isn't efficient and it's going to struggle to find is footing early on.

CFN Prediction: Utah State 35 … UNLV 13
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Utah State -17.5 O/U: 52.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Ryder Cup 2012, 1 – SNL Thursday Weekend Update): 2