Handicapping The Heisman

Handicapping the Heisman at the First Turn - Taking a look at the crazy race.

Four weeks of play have gradually provided a glimpse of a Heisman chase that hasn’t even begun to fully take shape. Still, with each passing weekend, the competition becomes more about actual production and less about rampant speculation. In other words, preseason postulating becomes increasingly irrelevant. For different reasons, popular candidates in July, such as Montee Ball, Denard Robinson, Tyler Wilson, Tyrann Mathieu, Knile Davis Logan Thomas and Keith Price, are already afterthoughts. And presumed frontrunner Matt Barkley is descending fast, clinging to a narrow margin for error.

So who’ll win this year’s Heisman Trophy, or even be a finalist for that matter? Obviously, too early to tell, but with a month of work now complete, it feels like the right time to predict which players are most likely to become immortalized in New York City on Dec. 8.

10. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s arguably the nation’s best back, and he’s just getting cranking. While his numbers may be modest right now at 80 yards per game, marquee upcoming matchups with Georgia, LSU and Florida will afford him an opportunity to be leading this race by Nov. 1.
He’ll miss the cut because … he’s been unable to gain much traction in September. And while the Bulldogs, Tigers and Gators will bring megawatt spotlights to the Gamecocks, they’ve also got nasty defenses for Lattimore to navigate.

9. LB Manti Te’o, Notre Dame
He’ll be a finalist because … he genuinely is one of this year’s most outstanding players, and voters are taking notice early. Of course, it also helps that Te’o plays for a Notre Dame team that’s unbeaten, defensive-driven and seemingly playing in big games every week.
He’ll miss the cut because … he almost never has the ball in his hands. No matter how much Te’o does this season, a large chunk of voters will have a difficult time overlooking the fact that he’s not a quarterback or a running back.

8. QB Matt Barkley, USC
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s still Matt Barkley. He has the talent, supporting cast and widespread visibility to go on the kind of tear that makes September feel like a distant memory. Voters not only know Barkley, but they like him, which is a powerful thing.
He’ll miss the cut because … the bloom may already be off his rose. The Stanford game was a campaign killer that unfolded in front of a national audience. Plus, Barkley didn’t even look right versus Cal last week, throwing two picks for a second consecutive game.

7. RB De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon
He’ll be a finalist because … voters have a habit of gravitating to highlight-reel players. Thomas is the hands-down most exciting player in America, and plays for a national title contender. He’s averaging more than 11 yards a carry, scoring once every five times he touches the ball on offense.
He’ll miss the cut because … he’s still not a feature weapon in the Ducks offense, touching the ball only 10-12 times a game. Thomas could get somewhat overshadowed in an attack that’ll also produce gaudy numbers for RB Kenjon Barner and QB Marcus Mariota.

6. QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s exploded on to the national scene with a great September, and has fit in swimmingly in Urban Meyer’s new offense in Columbus. Improved as a passer, he ranks second in Big Ten rushing, and has looked great getting there.
He’ll miss the cut because … there’s a precedent for voters downgrading players on NCAA-sanctioned teams. See Matt Barkley in 2011. While other are playing for league titles and a spot in a BCS bowl game, Miller’s season ends on Nov. 24.

5. QB AJ McCarron, Alabama
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s the upwardly-mobile quarterback on the nation’s top-ranked team. No longer in Trent Richardson’s shadow, McCarron has thrown 10 touchdown passes without a pick to rank No. 4 nationally in passing efficiency.
He’ll miss the cut because … defense—not offense—wins championships in Tuscaloosa. If the Tide keeps rolling, as expected, Nick Saban’s D is going to get far more of the attaboys than any individual on McCarron’s side of the ball.

4. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s the right player on the right team to give Georgia its first Heisman winner since Herschel Walker in 1982. Murray is an elite college quarterback playing for a Bulldogs team looking as if it might be ready to compete for a national title.
He’ll miss the cut because … the regular season schedule doesn’t offer a ton of marquee moments, especially in November, when voters are most engaged. Murray’s candidacy could come down to the SEC title game against either the ferocious ‘Bama or LSU D.

3. QB Collin Klein, Kansas State
He’ll be a finalist because … he’s the most valuable player on a team that just clipped Oklahoma, and is rising fast in the polls. Klein is a magnetic candidate, the kind of hard-nosed, clutch quarterback that voters tend to rally around this time of year.
He’ll miss the cut because … this Manhattan doesn’t generate a lot of buzz outside the region. What happens to Klein when Kansas State inevitably drops a game or two? The senior could lose voters who think they’re getting the next Andrew Luck. He’s just not that kind of passer.

2. QB EJ Manuel, Florida State
He’ll be a finalist because … the Seminoles are back in the national psyche. And No. 3 is a big reason why. Manuel delivered in his most important game of the regular season, throwing for 380 yards and two scores in a comeback win over Clemson.
He’ll miss the cut because … playing in the ACC limits a team’s number of can’t-miss games. In between last week’s title bout with Clemson and the Nov. 24 visit from Florida will be a lot of ho-hum dates with the likes of Boston College, Duke and Maryland.

1. QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
He’ll be a finalist because … numbers sell. And few will hang up more eye-popping statistics than Smith. He’s thrown for 1,072 yards and a dozen touchdown passes without breaking a sweat, and is the engineer of an offense designed with quick scores in mind.
He’ll miss the cut because … neither he nor the rest of the Mountaineers have ever had to face a Big 12 slate of games, week-in and week-out. This isn’t the Big East or a cushy non-schedule any longer, which will put Smith’s skills and late-game composure to an entirely new test.

On the Radar : RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan State), QB Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), RB Johnathan Franklin (UCLA), LB Jarvis Jones (Georgia)