Compu-Picks 2012 Analysis: Week Five Games

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Sep 30, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Analysis: Looking Back at Compu-Picks' Preseason Game of the Year Picks After Five Weeks of Play

As many of you remember, before the season started I published picks against the books' Game of the Year lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.

The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the Game of the Year lines. Picks are separated by confidence level (1 lowest, 4 highest). Here is how the system stands so far:

Confidence W L
1 7 4
2 0 4
3 9 0
4 8 0
Total 24 8

And below is the full list of each game of the year line as well as Compu-Picks' picks against these lines. Please note that many games didn't merit a pick from Compu-Picks.

Team1 Team2 Line Confidence Pick W/L
Miami (Florida) Kansas State 7.5 0
Washington Louisiana State 21.5 2 Washington L
Georgia Missouri -4.5 1 Missouri L
Florida Texas A&M -4 1 Florida L
Iowa State Iowa 7.5 0
Southern California Syracuse -24 1 Syracuse W
Nebraska UCLA -6.5 3 UCLA W
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 2.5 0
Oklahoma State Arizona -9.5 1 Oklahoma State L
Washington State Nevada-Las Vegas -16 1 Nevada-Las Vegas W
Alabama Arkansas -5 1 Alabama W
Florida Tennessee -4 1 Florida W
Southern California Stanford -12 4 Stanford W
Notre Dame Michigan State 2.5 0
Louisiana State Auburn -9.5 4 Auburn W
Clemson Florida State 10.5 0
Kansas State Oklahoma 16.5 1 Oklahoma L
Missouri South Carolina 5 0
California Southern California 24 1 California W
Michigan Notre Dame 2.5 2 Michigan L
Mississippi Alabama 30.5 0
Tennessee Georgia 11.5 0
Ohio State Michigan State 2.5 3 Ohio State W
Texas Oklahoma State 1.5 3 Texas W
Arkansas Texas A&M -3.5 1 Texas A&M W
Baylor West Virginia 12 0
Wisconsin Nebraska 3 1 Nebraska W
Southern California Utah -14 4 Utah
Arkansas Auburn -4.5 4 Auburn
Louisiana State Florida -4.5 3 Florida
Kansas Kansas State 20 1 Kansas
Washington Oregon 20 0
Georgia South Carolina -2 1 South Carolina
West Virginia Texas 6.5 1 Texas
Miami (Florida) Notre Dame 10 0
Nebraska Ohio State 4.5 0
Nevada Nevada-Las Vegas -16 3 Nevada-Las Vegas
Alabama Missouri -14 1 Missouri
Southern California Washington -17 3 Washington
Texas Oklahoma 7 2 Texas
Stanford Notre Dame 5.5 3 Stanford
Stanford California -4 2 Stanford
South Carolina Florida 5 0
Florida State Miami (Florida) -11 1 Florida State
Michigan State Michigan 5.5 0
Alabama Tennessee -14 0
Baylor Texas 14 2 Texas
Louisiana State Texas A&M -10 1 Texas A&M
Colorado Southern California 36 1 Southern California
Kansas State West Virginia 7 0
Nevada-Las Vegas Boise State 35.5 0
Brigham Young Notre Dame 7.5 3 Brigham Young
Cincinnati Louisville 5 1 Cincinnati
Mississippi State Alabama 23.5 2 Mississippi State
Southern California Arizona -16 0
Texas A&M Auburn 4 1 Auburn
Notre Dame Oklahoma 12 1 Oklahoma
Texas Christian Oklahoma State 7.5 4 Texas Christian
Tennessee South Carolina 6.5 0
Michigan State Wisconsin 5 2 Michigan State
Florida Georgia 3.5 2 Florida
Michigan Nebraska 2 1 Michigan
Virginia Tech Miami (Florida) -6.5 1 Miami (Florida)
Missouri Florida 7.5 0
Oklahoma State Kansas State -2 0
Nebraska Michigan State 5 2 Nebraska
Oregon Southern California 3.5 4 Oregon
Texas Christian West Virginia 6 3 Texas Christian
Pittsburgh Notre Dame 13 1 Pittsburgh
Alabama Louisiana State 1.5 1 Alabama
Florida State Virginia Tech -3 1 Florida State
Pittsburgh Connecticut -2.5 0
Texas A&M Alabama 20 0
Georgia Auburn -5.5 3 Auburn
Notre Dame Boston College -11 4 Boston College
Mississippi State Louisiana State 17 3 Mississippi State
Baylor Oklahoma 20 1 Oklahoma
West Virginia Oklahoma State 5 1 West Virginia
Arkansas South Carolina -2 3 South Carolina
Kansas State Texas Christian 5 1 Texas Christian
Missouri Tennessee 2.5 2 Missouri
Arizona State Southern California 27 0
Mississippi Louisiana State 27.5 0
Stanford Oregon 13.5 0
Southern California UCLA -14 3 UCLA
Ohio State Wisconsin 4.5 4 Ohio State
Oklahoma West Virginia -3.5 1 Oklahoma
Louisiana State Arkansas -3.5 0
Washington Washington State -1 2 Washington
Arizona State Arizona 7 1 Arizona State
Auburn Alabama 19.5 2 Auburn
South Carolina Clemson 2.5 0
Florida Florida State 6.5 1 Florida
Mississippi State Mississippi -10 0
Michigan Ohio State 4 0
Oklahoma State Oklahoma 10 0
Oregon Oregon State -17 0
Texas Christian Texas 8.5 1 Texas Christian
Missouri Texas A&M 3 2 Missouri
Notre Dame Southern California 13 1 Notre Dame
Texas Kansas State -6 1 Texas
Oklahoma Texas Christian -8 2 Texas Christian
Army Navy 3.5 1 Army

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

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