As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.
The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the 5Dimes lines. I've evaluated and placed each pick into one of four buckets: not sure, lean, lock, and clinched. My bucketing is somewhat arbitrary, of course, but I think it's pretty reasonable at this stage. Here is how the system stands so far:
| Lean/Lock/Clinched | Confidence Level | W | L |
| Lean | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Lock | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Clinched | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lean | 2 | 16 | 12 |
| Lock | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| Clinched | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Lean | 3 | 21 | 15 |
| Lock | 3 | 18 | 6 |
| Clinched | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lean | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Lock | 4 | 20 | 8 |
| Clinched | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| | | | |
| Lean | Total | 46 | 36 |
| Lock | Total | 52 | 31 |
| Clinched | Total | 13 | 0 |
| All | Total | 111 | 67 |
As you can see, the system has done EXTREMELY well against the preseason win total lines. Unless my evaluations of leans/locks are just totally out of whack (and I really can't see it), a 60% win rate is almost a worst case scenario at this point.
The table below is the full list of each team and an evaulation of where they stand against their preseason win total from 5Dimes (the totals above are sums of this table). It's worth noting that the five teams in the country who have already clinched over/under their win totals so far (Arkansas, Houston, Southern Miss under; Duke, UTSA over) were correct calls by Compu-Picks. In fact, two of those (Duke over 3.5 wins, Houston under 9.5 wins) were picks at the highest confidence level (4).
The table below is structured as follows. The 6 columns are: team; line (what 5Dimes posted back in late August); pick (whether Compu-Picks took the over, the under, or blank if the system passed); confidence level of the preseason pick (1 was the lowest level, 4 the highest), current estimate (win or loss on the pick); and whether the current estimate is a lean, lock, if the outcome has already been clinched.
| Team | Line | Pick | Confidence | Current Estimate | Lean/Lock/Clinched |
| Boston College | 5.5 | Over | 4 | L | Lock |
| Clemson | 8.5 | | | | |
| Florida State | 10 | Over | 1 | ??? | |
| Maryland | 4.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lean |
| North Carolina State | 7.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lean |
| Wake Forest | 5.5 | Under | 1 | ??? | |
| Duke | 3.5 | Over | 4 | W | Clinched |
| Georgia Tech | 7.5 | | | | |
| Miami (Florida) | 6.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| North Carolina | 8 | Under | 4 | W | Lean |
| Virginia | 6.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lean |
| Virginia Tech | 9 | Under | 2 | W | Lock |
| Baylor | 6.5 | Under | 2 | ??? | |
| Iowa State | 4.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Kansas | 3.5 | | | | |
| Kansas State | 7.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Oklahoma | 9.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lean |
| Oklahoma State | 8.5 | | | | |
| Texas Christian | 8 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Texas | 9 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Texas Tech | 6.5 | Under | 1 | ??? | |
| West Virginia | 8.5 | | | | |
| Illinois | 6.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lock |
| Indiana | 3.5 | Over | 1 | ??? | |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| Penn State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | ??? | |
| Purdue | 6.5 | | | | |
| Wisconsin | 9.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Iowa | 7.5 | Over | 1 | L | Lock |
| Michigan | 8.5 | | | | |
| Michigan State | 8.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Minnesota | 5.5 | | | | |
| Nebraska | 9 | Under | 1 | ??? | |
| Northwestern | 6.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Notre Dame | 7.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| California | 6.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| Oregon | 10.5 | Over | 1 | ??? | |
| Oregon State | 4.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lock |
| Stanford | 7.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lean |
| Washington | 7 | | | | |
| Washington State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lock |
| Arizona | 5.5 | Under | 3 | L | Lean |
| Arizona State | 5 | Under | 3 | L | Lock |
| Colorado | 3.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lock |
| UCLA | 6.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lean |
| Southern California | 10.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Utah | 7.5 | Over | 3 | L | Lean |
| Florida | 8 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Georgia | 9.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Kentucky | 5.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| Missouri | 7 | | | | |
| South Carolina | 8.5 | | | | |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lean |
| Vanderbilt | 6.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lean |
| Alabama | 10.5 | | | | |
| Arkansas | 8.5 | Under | 2 | W | Clinched |
| Auburn | 7 | Over | 3 | L | Lock |
| Louisiana State | 0 | | | | |
| Mississippi | 5.5 | Under | 3 | ??? | |
| Mississippi State | 7.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Texas A&M | 6.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lean |
| Cincinnati | 7.5 | | | | |
| Connecticut | 5.5 | | | | |
| Louisville | 8.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lock |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | | | | |
| Rutgers | 7.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lock |
| South Florida | 8 | | | | |
| Syracuse | 5.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Temple | 4.5 | Over | 3 | L | Lean |
| Army | 5.5 | Over | 1 | L | Lock |
| Brigham Young | 8.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lean |
| Navy | 6.5 | Over | 1 | L | Lean |
| Air Force | 5.5 | Over | 4 | ??? | |
| Boise State | 9.5 | | | | |
| Colorado State | 6.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Fresno State | 7.5 | Under | 2 | ??? | |
| Hawaii | 4.5 | Over | 3 | L | Lean |
| Nevada | 7.5 | Under | 4 | L | Lock |
| New Mexico | 2.5 | | | | |
| San Diego State | 5.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lean |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 4.5 | Under | 3 | W | Lock |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | Over | 2 | L | Lock |
| Central Florida | 8.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| East Carolina | 5.5 | Over | 2 | W | Lean |
| Houston | 9.5 | Under | 4 | W | Clinched |
| Marshall | 6.5 | Under | 2 | ??? | |
| Memphis | 2.5 | Under | 1 | ??? | |
| Rice | 3.5 | Over | 3 | L | Lean |
| Southern Methodist | 6.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Southern Mississippi | 8.5 | Under | 1 | W | Clinched |
| Tulane | 2.5 | Over | 4 | L | Lean |
| Tulsa | 7.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lean |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 3.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| Texas-El Paso | 4.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| UMass | 1.5 | Over | 1 | ??? | |
| Akron | 2.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Ball State | 5.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Bowling Green | 7.5 | | | | |
| Buffalo | 4.5 | Under | 2 | ??? | |
| Central Michigan | 4.5 | Over | 4 | W | Lock |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lean |
| Kent | 5.5 | | | | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 5.5 | Over | 3 | W | Lean |
| Northern Illinois | 8.5 | | | | |
| Ohio | 9.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lock |
| Toledo | 7.5 | | | | |
| Western Michigan | 8.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| Arkansas State | 8.5 | Under | 2 | W | Lock |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7.5 | | | | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 4.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| Middle Tennessee State | 4.5 | Under | 2 | L | Lean |
| North Texas | 5.5 | Under | 1 | ??? | |
| Troy | 5.5 | | | | |
| Florida Atlantic | 3.5 | | | | |
| Florida International | 7.5 | | | | |
| Western Kentucky | 6.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| South Alabama | 2.5 | | | | |
| Idaho | 4.5 | | | | |
| Louisiana Tech | 8.5 | Over | 1 | W | Lock |
| New Mexico State | 5.5 | Under | 4 | W | Lock |
| San Jose State | 5.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lock |
| Utah State | 7.5 | Under | 1 | L | Lock |
| Texas St | 4.5 | Under | 1 | W | Lean |
| UTSA | 2.5 | Over | 2 | W | Clinched |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
