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Compu-Picks 2012 Analysis: Week 8_2

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Oct 23, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Analysis: Looking Back at Compu-Picks' Preseason Win Total Picks After Eight Weeks of Play

As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.

The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the 5Dimes lines. I've evaluated and placed each pick into one of four buckets: not sure, lean, lock, and clinched. My bucketing is somewhat arbitrary, of course, but I think it's pretty reasonable at this stage. Here is how the system stands so far:

Lean/Lock/Clinched Confidence Level W L
Lean 1 7 6
Lock 1 5 8
Clinched 1 2 0
Lean 2 10 2
Lock 2 16 20
Clinched 2 8 2
Lean 3 12 12
Lock 3 15 9
Clinched 3 9 3
Lean 4 4 8
Lock 4 8 4
Clinched 4 16 0
Lean Total 33 28 54.1%
Lock Total 44 41 51.8%
Clinched Total 35 5 87.5%
All Total 112 74 60.2%

As you can see, the system has done EXTREMELY well against the preseason win total lines. My evaluation a couple weeks ago was a touch optimistic, but this is still hanging right around a 60% win rate, which is really strong given that there were 95 picks made.

The table below is the full list of each team and an evaulation of where they stand against their preseason win total from 5Dimes (the totals above are sums of this table).

The table below is structured as follows. The 6 columns are: team; line (what 5Dimes posted back in late August); pick (whether Compu-Picks took the over, the under, or blank if the system passed); confidence level of the preseason pick (1 was the lowest level, 4 the highest), current estimate (win or loss on the pick); and whether the current estimate is a lean, lock, if the outcome has already been clinched.

Team Line Pick Confidence Current Estimate Lean/Lock/Clinched
Boston College 5.5 Over 4 L Lock
Clemson 8.5
Florida State 10 Over 1 ???
Maryland 4.5 Under 2 L Lock
North Carolina State 7.5 Under 3 L Lean
Wake Forest 5.5 Under 1 ??? Lean
Duke 3.5 Over 4 W Clinched
Georgia Tech 7.5
Miami (Florida) 6.5 Under 2 ???
North Carolina 8 Under 4 ???
Virginia 6.5 Under 3 W Clinched
Virginia Tech 9 Under 2 W Clinched
Baylor 6.5 Under 2 W Lean
Iowa State 4.5 Under 1 L Lock
Kansas 3.5
Kansas State 7.5 Under 2 L Lock
Oklahoma 9.5 Over 2 W Lean
Oklahoma State 8.5
Texas Christian 8 Over 2 L Lean
Texas 9 Over 2 L Lock
Texas Tech 6.5 Under 1 L Lock
West Virginia 8.5
Illinois 6.5 Under 1 W Lock
Indiana 3.5 Over 1 L Lean
Ohio State 9.5 Over 1 W Lock
Penn State 5.5 Under 2 L Lock
Purdue 6.5
Wisconsin 9.5 Under 3 W Lean
Iowa 7.5 Over 1 L Lean
Michigan 8.5
Michigan State 8.5 Under 2 W Clinched
Minnesota 5.5
Nebraska 9 Under 1 W Lean
Northwestern 6.5 Under 2 L Lock
Notre Dame 7.5 Under 1 L Lock
California 6.5 Under 4 W Lock
Oregon 10.5 Over 1 W Lean
Oregon State 4.5 Over 3 W Clinched
Stanford 7.5 Over 3 W Lean
Washington 7
Washington State 5.5 Under 2 W Lock
Arizona 5.5 Under 3 L Lean
Arizona State 5 Under 3 L Lock
Colorado 3.5 Under 1 W Lock
UCLA 6.5 Over 3 W Lean
Southern California 10.5 Under 3 W Lock
Utah 7.5 Over 3 L Lock
Florida 8 Over 2 W Lock
Georgia 9.5 Under 1 L Lean
Kentucky 5.5 Under 4 W Clinched
Missouri 7
South Carolina 8.5
Tennessee 7.5 Under 3 W Lock
Vanderbilt 6.5 Over 2 ???
Alabama 10.5
Arkansas 8.5 Under 2 W Clinched
Auburn 7 Over 3 L Clinched
Louisiana State 0
Mississippi 5.5 Under 3 L Lean
Mississippi State 7.5 Over 2 W Lean
Texas A&M 6.5 Under 1 L Lock
Cincinnati 7.5
Connecticut 5.5
Louisville 8.5 Under 1 L Lock
Pittsburgh 7
Rutgers 7.5 Over 2 W Lock
South Florida 8
Syracuse 5.5 Under 3 W Lock
Temple 4.5 Over 3 W Lean
Army 5.5 Over 1 L Lock
Brigham Young 8.5 Over 2 L Clinched
Navy 6.5 Over 1 W Lean
Air Force 5.5 Over 4 W Lean
Boise State 9.5
Colorado State 6.5 Under 3 W Clinched
Fresno State 7.5 Under 2 L Lock
Hawaii 4.5 Over 3 L Lock
Nevada 7.5 Under 4 L Lean
New Mexico 2.5
San Diego State 5.5 Over 2 W Lock
Nevada-Las Vegas 4.5 Under 3 W Lock
Wyoming 5.5 Over 2 L Lock
Central Florida 8.5 Under 1 L Lean
East Carolina 5.5 Over 2 W Lock
Houston 9.5 Under 4 W Clinched
Marshall 6.5 Under 2 W Lean
Memphis 2.5 Under 1 W Lean
Rice 3.5 Over 3 L Lean
Southern Methodist 6.5 Under 1 W Lean
Southern Mississippi 8.5 Under 1 W Clinched
Tulane 2.5 Over 4 L Lean
Tulsa 7.5 Over 3 W Lock
Alabama-Birmingham 3.5 Under 1 W Lean
Texas-El Paso 4.5 Under 1 W Lean
UMass 1.5 Over 1 L Lean
Akron 2.5 Under 2 W Lean
Ball State 5.5 Under 2 L Lock
Bowling Green 7.5
Buffalo 4.5 Under 2 W Lock
Central Michigan 4.5 Over 4 ???
Eastern Michigan 5.5 Under 2 W Lock
Kent 5.5
Miami (Ohio) 5.5 Over 3 ???
Northern Illinois 8.5
Ohio 9.5 Under 2 L Lock
Toledo 7.5
Western Michigan 8.5 Under 4 W Clinched
Arkansas State 8.5 Under 2 W Lock
Louisiana-Lafayette 7.5
Louisiana-Monroe 4.5 Over 1 W Clinched
Middle Tennessee State 4.5 Under 2 L Lock
North Texas 5.5 Under 1 ???
Troy 5.5
Florida Atlantic 3.5
Florida International 7.5
Western Kentucky 6.5 Over 1 W Lock
South Alabama 2.5
Idaho 4.5
Louisiana Tech 8.5 Over 1 W Lock
New Mexico State 5.5 Under 4 W Lock
San Jose State 5.5 Under 1 L Lock
Utah State 7.5 Under 1 L Lock
Texas St 4.5 Under 1 L Lean
UTSA 2.5 Over 2 W Clinched

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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