As many of you remember, before the season started I published picks against the books' Game of the Year lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.
The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the Game of the Year lines. Picks are separated by confidence level (1 lowest, 4 highest). Here is how the system stands so far:
| Confidence | W | L | Win % |
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 61.1% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 20.0% |
| 3 | 21 | 3 | 87.5% |
| 4 | 12 | 4 | 75.0% |
| Total | 46 | 22 | 67.6% |
And below is the full list of each game of the year line as well as Compu-Picks' picks against these lines and, where available, what the current line for those games are (per current lines for this week and beyond the bets for future weeks' games). Please note that many games didn't merit a pick from Compu-Picks.
| Team1 | Team2 | Line | Confidence | Pick | W/L | Current Line |
| Miami (Florida) | Kansas State | 7.5 | 0 | | | |
| Washington | Louisiana State | 21.5 | 2 | Washington | L | |
| Georgia | Missouri | -4.5 | 1 | Missouri | L | |
| Florida | Texas A&M | -4 | 1 | Florida | L | |
| Iowa State | Iowa | 7.5 | 0 | | | |
| Southern California | Syracuse | -24 | 1 | Syracuse | W | |
| Nebraska | UCLA | -6.5 | 3 | UCLA | W | |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 2.5 | 0 | | | |
| Oklahoma State | Arizona | -9.5 | 1 | Oklahoma State | L | |
| Washington State | Nevada-Las Vegas | -16 | 1 | Nevada-Las Vegas | W | |
| Alabama | Arkansas | -5 | 1 | Alabama | W | |
| Florida | Tennessee | -4 | 1 | Florida | W | |
| Southern California | Stanford | -12 | 4 | Stanford | W | |
| Notre Dame | Michigan State | 2.5 | 0 | | | |
| Louisiana State | Auburn | -9.5 | 4 | Auburn | W | |
| Clemson | Florida State | 10.5 | 0 | | | |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma | 16.5 | 1 | Oklahoma | L | |
| Missouri | South Carolina | 5 | 0 | | | |
| California | Southern California | 24 | 1 | California | W | |
| Michigan | Notre Dame | 2.5 | 2 | Michigan | L | |
| Mississippi | Alabama | 30.5 | 0 | | | |
| Tennessee | Georgia | 11.5 | 0 | | | |
| Ohio State | Michigan State | 2.5 | 3 | Ohio State | W | |
| Texas | Oklahoma State | 1.5 | 3 | Texas | W | |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | -3.5 | 1 | Texas A&M | W | |
| Baylor | West Virginia | 12 | 0 | | | |
| Wisconsin | Nebraska | 3 | 1 | Nebraska | W | |
| Southern California | Utah | -14 | 4 | Utah | W | |
| Arkansas | Auburn | -4.5 | 4 | Auburn | L | |
| Louisiana State | Florida | -4.5 | 3 | Florida | W | |
| Kansas | Kansas State | 20 | 1 | Kansas | L | |
| Washington | Oregon | 20 | 0 | | | |
| Georgia | South Carolina | -2 | 1 | South Carolina | W | |
| West Virginia | Texas | 6.5 | 1 | Texas | L | |
| Miami (Florida) | Notre Dame | 10 | 0 | | | |
| Nebraska | Ohio State | 4.5 | 0 | | | |
| Nevada | Nevada-Las Vegas | -16 | 3 | Nevada-Las Vegas | W | |
| Alabama | Missouri | -14 | 1 | Missouri | L | |
| Southern California | Washington | -17 | 3 | Washington | W | |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | Texas | L | |
| Stanford | Notre Dame | 5.5 | 3 | Stanford | L | |
| Stanford | California | -4 | 2 | Stanford | W | |
| South Carolina | Florida | 5 | 0 | | | |
| Florida State | Miami (Florida) | -11 | 1 | Florida State | W | |
| Michigan State | Michigan | 5.5 | 0 | | | |
| Alabama | Tennessee | -14 | 0 | | | |
| Baylor | Texas | 14 | 2 | Texas | L | |
| Louisiana State | Texas A&M | -10 | 1 | Texas A&M | W | |
| Colorado | Southern California | 36 | 1 | Southern California | W | |
| Kansas State | West Virginia | 7 | 0 | | | |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Boise State | 35.5 | 0 | | | |
| Brigham Young | Notre Dame | 7.5 | 3 | Brigham Young | W | |
| Cincinnati | Louisville | 5 | 1 | Cincinnati | | 4 |
| Mississippi State | Alabama | 23.5 | 2 | Mississippi State | | 24 |
| Southern California | Arizona | -16 | 0 | | | |
| Texas A&M | Auburn | 4 | 1 | Auburn | | -14 |
| Notre Dame | Oklahoma | 12 | 1 | Oklahoma | | 10.5 |
| Texas Christian | Oklahoma State | 7.5 | 4 | Texas Christian | | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | South Carolina | 6.5 | 0 | | | |
| Michigan State | Wisconsin | 5 | 2 | Michigan State | | 7 |
| Florida | Georgia | 3.5 | 2 | Florida | | -6.5 |
| Michigan | Nebraska | 2 | 1 | Michigan | | 3 |
| Virginia Tech | Miami (Florida) | -6.5 | 1 | Miami (Florida) | | -3 |
| Missouri | Florida | 7.5 | 0 | | | |
| Oklahoma State | Kansas State | -2 | 0 | | | |
| Nebraska | Michigan State | 5 | 2 | Nebraska | | 1 |
| Oregon | Southern California | 3.5 | 4 | Oregon | | -2.5 |
| Texas Christian | West Virginia | 6 | 3 | Texas Christian | | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | Notre Dame | 13 | 1 | Pittsburgh | | |
| Alabama | Louisiana State | 1.5 | 1 | Alabama | | -6.5 |
| Florida State | Virginia Tech | -3 | 1 | Florida State | | -11.5 |
| Pittsburgh | Connecticut | -2.5 | 0 | | | |
| Texas A&M | Alabama | 20 | 0 | | | |
| Georgia | Auburn | -5.5 | 3 | Auburn | | -14 |
| Notre Dame | Boston College | -11 | 4 | Boston College | | |
| Mississippi State | Louisiana State | 17 | 3 | Mississippi State | | |
| Baylor | Oklahoma | 20 | 1 | Oklahoma | | |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma State | 5 | 1 | West Virginia | | 9 |
| Arkansas | South Carolina | -2 | 3 | South Carolina | | 11.5 |
| Kansas State | Texas Christian | 5 | 1 | Texas Christian | | |
| Missouri | Tennessee | 2.5 | 2 | Missouri | | |
| Arizona State | Southern California | 27 | 0 | | | |
| Mississippi | Louisiana State | 27.5 | 0 | | | |
| Stanford | Oregon | 13.5 | 0 | | | |
| Southern California | UCLA | -14 | 3 | UCLA | | -7.5 |
| Ohio State | Wisconsin | 4.5 | 4 | Ohio State | | -3 |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | -3.5 | 1 | Oklahoma | | -7 |
| Louisiana State | Arkansas | -3.5 | 0 | | | |
| Washington | Washington State | -1 | 2 | Washington | | -3 |
| Arizona State | Arizona | 7 | 1 | Arizona State | | 3 |
| Auburn | Alabama | 19.5 | 2 | Auburn | | 31.5 |
| South Carolina | Clemson | 2.5 | 0 | | | |
| Florida | Florida State | 6.5 | 1 | Florida | | 3.5 |
| Mississippi State | Mississippi | -10 | 0 | | | |
| Michigan | Ohio State | 4 | 0 | | | |
| Oklahoma State | Oklahoma | 10 | 0 | | | |
| Oregon | Oregon State | -17 | 0 | | | |
| Texas Christian | Texas | 8.5 | 1 | Texas Christian | | 7 |
| Missouri | Texas A&M | 3 | 2 | Missouri | | |
| Notre Dame | Southern California | 13 | 1 | Notre Dame | | 6 |
| Texas | Kansas State | -6 | 1 | Texas | | 6 |
| Oklahoma | Texas Christian | -8 | 2 | Texas Christian | | -9 |
| Army | Navy | 3.5 | 1 | Army | | 7.5 |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
