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Compu-Picks 2012 Analysis: Week 8_3

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Oct 23, 2012


2012 Compu-Picks Analysis: Looking Back at Compu-Picks' Preseason Game of the Year Picks After EightWeeks of Play

As many of you remember, before the season started I published picks against the books' Game of the Year lines. This article represents a status update on how those picks are doing.

The table below represents an evaluation of each pick Compu-Picks made against the Game of the Year lines. Picks are separated by confidence level (1 lowest, 4 highest). Here is how the system stands so far:

Confidence W L Win %
1 11 7 61.1%
2 2 8 20.0%
3 21 3 87.5%
4 12 4 75.0%
Total 46 22 67.6%

And below is the full list of each game of the year line as well as Compu-Picks' picks against these lines and, where available, what the current line for those games are (per current lines for this week and beyond the bets for future weeks' games). Please note that many games didn't merit a pick from Compu-Picks.

Team1 Team2 Line Confidence Pick W/L Current Line
Miami (Florida) Kansas State 7.5 0
Washington Louisiana State 21.5 2 Washington L
Georgia Missouri -4.5 1 Missouri L
Florida Texas A&M -4 1 Florida L
Iowa State Iowa 7.5 0
Southern California Syracuse -24 1 Syracuse W
Nebraska UCLA -6.5 3 UCLA W
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 2.5 0
Oklahoma State Arizona -9.5 1 Oklahoma State L
Washington State Nevada-Las Vegas -16 1 Nevada-Las Vegas W
Alabama Arkansas -5 1 Alabama W
Florida Tennessee -4 1 Florida W
Southern California Stanford -12 4 Stanford W
Notre Dame Michigan State 2.5 0
Louisiana State Auburn -9.5 4 Auburn W
Clemson Florida State 10.5 0
Kansas State Oklahoma 16.5 1 Oklahoma L
Missouri South Carolina 5 0
California Southern California 24 1 California W
Michigan Notre Dame 2.5 2 Michigan L
Mississippi Alabama 30.5 0
Tennessee Georgia 11.5 0
Ohio State Michigan State 2.5 3 Ohio State W
Texas Oklahoma State 1.5 3 Texas W
Arkansas Texas A&M -3.5 1 Texas A&M W
Baylor West Virginia 12 0
Wisconsin Nebraska 3 1 Nebraska W
Southern California Utah -14 4 Utah W
Arkansas Auburn -4.5 4 Auburn L
Louisiana State Florida -4.5 3 Florida W
Kansas Kansas State 20 1 Kansas L
Washington Oregon 20 0
Georgia South Carolina -2 1 South Carolina W
West Virginia Texas 6.5 1 Texas L
Miami (Florida) Notre Dame 10 0
Nebraska Ohio State 4.5 0
Nevada Nevada-Las Vegas -16 3 Nevada-Las Vegas W
Alabama Missouri -14 1 Missouri L
Southern California Washington -17 3 Washington W
Texas Oklahoma 7 2 Texas L
Stanford Notre Dame 5.5 3 Stanford L
Stanford California -4 2 Stanford W
South Carolina Florida 5 0
Florida State Miami (Florida) -11 1 Florida State W
Michigan State Michigan 5.5 0
Alabama Tennessee -14 0
Baylor Texas 14 2 Texas L
Louisiana State Texas A&M -10 1 Texas A&M W
Colorado Southern California 36 1 Southern California W
Kansas State West Virginia 7 0
Nevada-Las Vegas Boise State 35.5 0
Brigham Young Notre Dame 7.5 3 Brigham Young W
Cincinnati Louisville 5 1 Cincinnati 4
Mississippi State Alabama 23.5 2 Mississippi State 24
Southern California Arizona -16 0
Texas A&M Auburn 4 1 Auburn -14
Notre Dame Oklahoma 12 1 Oklahoma 10.5
Texas Christian Oklahoma State 7.5 4 Texas Christian 7.5
Tennessee South Carolina 6.5 0
Michigan State Wisconsin 5 2 Michigan State 7
Florida Georgia 3.5 2 Florida -6.5
Michigan Nebraska 2 1 Michigan 3
Virginia Tech Miami (Florida) -6.5 1 Miami (Florida) -3
Missouri Florida 7.5 0
Oklahoma State Kansas State -2 0
Nebraska Michigan State 5 2 Nebraska 1
Oregon Southern California 3.5 4 Oregon -2.5
Texas Christian West Virginia 6 3 Texas Christian 6
Pittsburgh Notre Dame 13 1 Pittsburgh
Alabama Louisiana State 1.5 1 Alabama -6.5
Florida State Virginia Tech -3 1 Florida State -11.5
Pittsburgh Connecticut -2.5 0
Texas A&M Alabama 20 0
Georgia Auburn -5.5 3 Auburn -14
Notre Dame Boston College -11 4 Boston College
Mississippi State Louisiana State 17 3 Mississippi State
Baylor Oklahoma 20 1 Oklahoma
West Virginia Oklahoma State 5 1 West Virginia 9
Arkansas South Carolina -2 3 South Carolina 11.5
Kansas State Texas Christian 5 1 Texas Christian
Missouri Tennessee 2.5 2 Missouri
Arizona State Southern California 27 0
Mississippi Louisiana State 27.5 0
Stanford Oregon 13.5 0
Southern California UCLA -14 3 UCLA -7.5
Ohio State Wisconsin 4.5 4 Ohio State -3
Oklahoma West Virginia -3.5 1 Oklahoma -7
Louisiana State Arkansas -3.5 0
Washington Washington State -1 2 Washington -3
Arizona State Arizona 7 1 Arizona State 3
Auburn Alabama 19.5 2 Auburn 31.5
South Carolina Clemson 2.5 0
Florida Florida State 6.5 1 Florida 3.5
Mississippi State Mississippi -10 0
Michigan Ohio State 4 0
Oklahoma State Oklahoma 10 0
Oregon Oregon State -17 0
Texas Christian Texas 8.5 1 Texas Christian 7
Missouri Texas A&M 3 2 Missouri
Notre Dame Southern California 13 1 Notre Dame 6
Texas Kansas State -6 1 Texas 6
Oklahoma Texas Christian -8 2 Texas Christian -9
Army Navy 3.5 1 Army 7.5

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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