Week 9 - Texas at Kansas

Posted Oct 26, 2012

Week 9 Fearless Prediction & Game Preview – Texas at Kansas

Texas (5-2) at Kansas (1-6) Oct 27, 12:00, FOX Sports Net

Here's The Deal: The two programs might have been Big 12 brothers for almost two decades, but they have only played nine times with Texas winning all of them since kicking things off in 1996. Could Kansas change around its miserable season with an upset win, and would a loss to the lowly Jayhawks shove Mack Brown out the door?

For all of the screaming and yelling about the underachieving Longhorn defense and the ugly loss to Oklahoma, there's still a chance to do some big things with a BCS game still on the table. If Texas wins out with road victories over Texas Tech and Kansas State, to go along with home wins over Iowa State and TCU, 10-2 might not be enough to get to the Fiesta, but it could mean a big money game and would calm everything down after a rocky stretch. However, anything but a major blowout will be enough to sound off more panic sirens.

Kansas might have gotten blown out by Oklahoma last week, but it didn't give up the 63 Texas gave up. The Jayhawks pushed Oklahoma State and gave a strong Northern Illinois team a battle on the road, but moral victories have had to replace real ones. There's no decided schematic advantage on offense, and while the defense has had its moments, there haven't been enough of them to change games around. With three road games in the final four, and all the road trips against loaded offenses, KU needs to find something that works. Now.

Why Texas Might Win: 90. That's how many points Kansas has scores in the six games this season against FBS teams, and the offense has yet to score more than 17 against a BCS conference squad. The Texas defense might be having a nightmare of a time against anyone who's able to snap the ball without falling over, but the offense hasn't had any problems – at least outside of the Oklahoma debacle. With no pass rush, and with the Longhorn offensive line going a great job in pass protection, David Ash should have no problems doing whatever he wants against the Jayhawk secondary. On the other side, Kansas just can't put points on the board. There has been a decent balance and the running game hasn't been miserable, but yards aren't translating into numbers to stay alive.

Why Kansas Might Win: Everyone is fattening up on the Longhorn defense. Granted, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Baylor have terrific offenses, but the Texas defensive front isn't tackling anyone and the secondary is giving up big plays in bunches. The line might be getting behind the line, and coming up with big plays from time to time haven't been a problem, but the run defense ranks last in the Big 12 and the pass defense isn't picking up the slack. Kansas has come up with enough of a running game to hover around the 180-yard mark, but against Texas, that could translate into 250 and more control of the game. Tony Pierson and Taylor Cox form a decent 1-2 punch, and now the O is getting more on the ground from …

What To Watch Out For: The Michael Cummings era started late against Oklahoma State a few weeks ago, but now it's really his time to shine. The young Kansas quarterback stepped in for an ineffective Dayne Crist and failed to do much against Oklahoma, completing just 10-of-21 passes for 111 yards and two picks, but he ran a little bit to help out the ground game. He might not be a top talent, and Jake Heaps could turn out to be the main man next year, but this will be Cummings' audition. He'll get five games to show that the job should and could be his for the next few seasons.

What Will Happen: Texas will put the game out of reach in the first half with a devastating balance and a few nice drives from Ash, but KU will grind out enough yards to keep it from being a brutal blowout. This won't be interesting in the second half, but it might not be quite the blasting Longhorn fans are hoping for.

CFN Prediction: Texas 45 … Kansas 20
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Texas -23 O/U: 60
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Girl, 1 – Don't Trust The B In Apt. 23): 2