Week 10 – Kansas at Baylor

Posted Nov 1, 2012

Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Story - Kansas at Baylor


Kansas (1-7) at Baylor (3-4) Nov. 3, 3:30, FOX Sports Net

Here’s The Deal: 0-5 Kansas vs. 0-4 Baylor. The two worst teams in the Big 12 are each looking at this as a possible win, and a must-win with rough games the rest of the way. The amazing Baylor offense leads the nation in passing and puts up lots and lots and lots of big numbers, but there hasn’t been anything to show for it thanks to its awful defense that can’t come up with a meaningful stop. Stuck on three wins, it’s going to take three victories in the final five games, and while that’s a tall task, four of the games are at home.

Kansas came up with a shocking performance against Texas, holding on to a slim lead until the final seconds when Case McCoy pulled the Longhorns up out of the nosedive for a 21-17 win. With three road games in the final four weeks, and with Iowa State a tough out at home, the Jayhawks have to keep the momentum going from last week’s great effort to have any reasonable hope of finishing the season with a second win .

This is only the 12th time the two programs have played with Baylor winning three of the last four.

Why Kansas Might Win: The Baylor defense is the worst in America. It might have faced a slew of major-league offenses, but there hasn’t been any luck in Big 12 play and now allowing 553 yards per game with a pass defense that’s getting obliterated, allowing 18 touchdown passes with one pick and one fumble recovery in four conference games. Meanwhile, as good as the offense is, it’s screwing up way too often and giving the ball away way too often with six picks and six lost fumbles in the last three games. The Kansas offense might not have the ability to keep up the pace in a shootout, but if the defense can help out with a slew of takeaways, this could be fun.

Why Baylor Might Win: 3-of-9 for 39 yards. That’s what the Kansas passing game came up with last week against Texas with Michael Cummings not exactly getting things rolling. Baylor’s defense might be the tonic for most struggling offenses, but Kansas has the third-worst scoring attack in the nation averaging just 17.25 points per game while averaging a lousy 356 yards per game. There’s no passing game whatsoever from the offense, and the defense doesn’t have the slightest bit of a pass rush to bother Nick Florence and the Bear passing game.

What To Watch Out For: Terrance Williams is the best wide receiver in college football right now. USC’s Marqise Lee might be having a special season, but in terms of size, deep speed and production, the Baylor senior is establishing himself as a tremendous pro prospect averaging a nation-leading 20.05 yards per catch and a ridiculous 172 yards per outing. Lee, the No. 2 receiver in yards per game, is averaging 141 yards per game and the no one else is coming up with more than 121.

What Will Happen: Baylor might have a ton of problems, but Kansas doesn’t have the offense to blow up and take advantage of the defensive issue. Cummings will throw for more than 39 yards, but he’s not going to bomb away for the 300 needed to keep up.

CFN Prediction: Baylor 31 … Kansas 17
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Baylor -18 O/U: 71
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Man With The Iron Fists, 1 – Election coverage until Tuesday morning): 2.5