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Week 10 – Troy at Tennessee
Posted Nov 2, 2012

Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Preview - Troy at Tennessee


Troy (4-4) at Arkansas (3-5) Nov. 3, 12:00, ESPN3

Here’s The Deal: This is when Tennessee is supposed to make its run. Yes, being 3-5 is brutal, and yes, being 0-5 in the SEC looks bad, but the five defeats came to Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina. Among those five teams, the only losses have come within the group. So are the Vols good, but with a brutal schedule, or are they bad and about to get exposed? It could be somewhere in between if the secondary can’t handle a dangerous Troy passing game that’s averaging close to 300 yards per game. However, the Trojans are coming of a loss to lowly Florida Atlantic, and while they’re potent, their best win of the year came against FIU.

After this, Troy will play out the string in the Sun Belt, but a win could up the at-large bowl chances. If the Vols lose, the Derek Dooley hot seat would turn to flaming, and it would take wins over Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to go bowling.

Why Troy Might Win: Bomb, bomb, bomb away. Without a great pass rush and with a shaky secondary, the Volunteers are struggling against everyone’s passing game giving up 272 yards per game and getting beaten deep way too often. The D has allowed 300 yards or more in each of the last three games, and while Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina can all throw efficiently, they’re not offense built on pushing the ball deep. Tennessee has allowed 12 touchdown passes and came up with just two picks over the last four games, while Troy has put up the yards and has been effective, but …

Why Tennessee Might Win: Florida Atlantic 34, Tennessee 27. FAU had been a disaster all season long with no wins over FBS tams and an offense that ranked among the worst in the nation. All of a sudden, the team that couldn’t beat South Alabama threw without an issue with Graham Wilbert chucking for 261 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, the normally explosive Trojan offense sputtered with Corey Robinson completing just 15-of-32 passes for 211 yards and a score with a pick. Tennessee’s passing game hasn’t been able to blow up lately against all the great defenses on the slate, but this week should be a different story with a big performance coming from …

What To Watch Out For: Tyler Bray. The junior quarterback is coming off one of his best games of the season, throwing for 368 yards and four scores with a pick in the loss to South Carolina, but he has thrown too many interceptions with ten in the last six games. As long as he doesn’t make too many big mistakes, he should put up huge numbers getting all the time he needs to wait for the big plays to develop, and he should connect on a few big home runs.

What Will Happen: Troy will throw for over 300 yards, and it won’t matter. Tennessee will get up early and should stay comfortably ahead, even though the defense will have a few problems putting the game away.

CFN Prediction: Tennessee 44 … Troy 20
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Tennessee -18.5 O/U: 68
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Man With The Iron Fists, 1 – Election coverage until Tuesday morning): 2