Week 10 – Tulsa at Arkansas

Posted Nov 2, 2012

Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Preview - Tulsa at Arkansas


Tulsa (7-1) at Arkansas (3-5) Nov. 3, 12:21, SEC Network

Here's The Deal: There's still time. Arkansas might be in the midst of a disastrous season, and it might have lost a must-win game against Ole Miss last week, but there's a chance for a bowl bid with wins in three of the last four games. That's probably not going to happen with road games at South Carolina and Mississippi State up next before closing out against LSU. This might be the most reasonable shot to come up with a win this year, but it's not going to be a layup.

Going against Tulsa might not seem like that big a deal, but the Golden Hurricane comes into the game as one of the nation's hottest teams with a seven-game winning streak thanks to a tremendous rushing offense and a defense that leads the nation in sacks. However, the front half the schedule was loaded with lightweights, losing to Iowa State and barely getting by Fresno State, but now comes the payback with three road games in the final four and showdowns at Houston and SMU wrapped up around UCF to close things out.

The two schools are only two hours away and have played 67 times starting in 1919, but Tulsa hasn't won since 1976.

Why Tulsa Might Win: Just when it seemed like the Arkansas offense was going to put a stop to the mistakes, with no turnovers against Kentucky, it gave up two picks against Ole Miss while the team was flagged a whopping 12 times. Tulsa has been solid in turnover margin and penalties haven't been much of a problem committing more than five just once since the opening day loss to Iowa State. The Tulsa defense should be able to force several errors and mistakes with a pass rush that cranked out 35 sacks and a whopping 75 tackles for loss so far. The Arkansas O line has been decent, but it's about to get hit from all angles.

Why Arkansas Might Win: Tulane, Nicholls State, Fresno State, at UAB, at Marshall, UTEP and Rice. After losing to Iowa State to open the season, that's the murderer's row of teams Tulsa has faced on the seven-game winning streak. Oddly enough for Tulsa, who has been amazing at bombing away over the years, the passing game hasn't been working all that well and is painfully inefficient. On the other side of the ball, the defense isn't holding up well against the decent passing games, and despite a slew of various problems, Tyler Wilson has been hot throwing for 372 yards and five scores against Kentucky and 297 yards and two scores with two interceptions against Ole Miss. The passing game should work just fine.

What To Watch Out For: Tulsa is getting its starting quarterback just in time. Cody Green has had shoulder problems and missed last week against Rice. Kalen Henderson only completed 8-of-23 passes for 201 yards and a touchdown with a pick, but now Green is back to add more experience and a bit more pop. Tulsa doesn't have a high-end passing game, but Green has been effective and he doesn't make a slew of mistakes. Of the six picks he has made on the year, three came in the close call against Fresno State and two were in the loss to Iowa State. If he's not throwing picks, Tulsa has a chance.

What Will Happen: This won't be the week Tulsa looks like a Conference USA team, but it won't be quite good enough defensively. The pass rush will bother Wilson from time to time, but not enough to disrupt an Arkansas passing game that will hit several home runs. It will be a fight, but for one week, the Hogs will have some fun.

CFN Prediction: Arkansas 42 … Tulsa 27
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Arkansas -7.5 O/U: 64.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Man With The Iron Fists, 1 – Election coverage until Tuesday morning): 3