Week 10 – New Mexico State at Auburn

Posted Nov 2, 2012

Week 10 Fearless Predictions - New Mexico State at Auburn


New Mexico State (1-7) at Auburn (1-7) Nov. 3, 12:30, ESPN3

Here's The Deal: Finally, someone at Auburn's own size.

The game and the rest of the season doesn't matter for a Tiger team that's going through an epic disaster, with the lone win on the season coming in overtime over ULM, so it's all about improving and developing each week. Unfortunately, there wasn't much to get excited about after getting blown away by Texas A&M 63-21 to end any crazy dreams of turning things around to go bowling. Now, the entire year will revolve around the season-ender against Alabama – no matter what else has happened, screwing up the Tide would make up for it. However, as bad as things have been, a loss to New Mexico State would sink the season – and head coach Gene Chizik – to another level.

New Mexico State was supposed to be dangerous this season with a supposedly improved offense and a decent enough defense to get by. Instead, the Aggies got by Sacramento State, and that has been it. The offense is flailing, the defense doesn't have any one thing it can do well, and the possibility of a 1-11 season is looking more and more certain.

Why New Mexico State Might Win: Dead last. The Auburn offense is dead last in the nation averaging a paltry 284 yards per game, and it's next-to-last in scoring and it's not finding anything in any way that's working. Granted, there haven't been any true lightweights on the slate – until now – but still, the offensive line isn't coming up with any push for the ground game and the quarterbacks aren't taking advantage of the chances they're getting. New Mexico State might not be a whole bunch better offensively, and it has gone against a miserable schedule with no FBS conference teams to face until now, but at least the passing game should put up a few yards.

Why Auburn Might Win: The New Mexico State lines are among the worst in college football. Auburn might be having issues on its offensive front, but the Aggies are really struggling, failing to provide any sort of pass protection allowing more than three sacks per game, and not generating anything for a ground attack that's averaging under 100 points per outing. The defense hasn't exactly been a prize, either, generating little to no pressure into the backfield and getting steamrolled over by anyone who shows a passing interest in powering the ball with the running game. In other words, Auburn, your excuses are over. If the offense doesn't work now, it never, ever will.

What To Watch Out For: Welcome to the Auburn offense, Jonathan Wallace. Of course, it'll be tough to tell just how good the freshman quarterback really is considering he gets to start against New Mexico State while Kiehl Frazier and Clint Moseley went against the tough teams on the schedule, but still, after completing 6-of-9 passes for 122 yards and two scores, and running for 71 yards on 13 carries against A&M, he breathed a little bit of life into the program. Considering the season is lost, developing him over the next few games and seeing what he can do on a consistent basis will be a must going into what's sure to be a rocky offseason.

What Will Happen: For one week, Auburn can dream that it's back to being Auburn again. The passing game will click, the running game will rip off several big runs, and the defense will be disruptive and dominant. It's a shame this game didn't come to start the season, but the Tigers will take a win any way it can get one.

CFN Prediction: Auburn 48 … New Mexico State 14
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Auburn -22.5 O/U: 51
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Man With The Iron Fists, 1 – Election coverage until Tuesday morning): 1.5