Week 10 – Iowa at Indiana

Posted Nov 2, 2012

Week 10 Fearless Predictions & Game Preview - Iowa at Indiana


Iowa (4-4) at Indiana (3-5) Nov. 3, 3:30, BTN

Here's The Deal: Iowa has won the last four meetings and seven of the last nine, but this one could turn out to be the most meaningful in the last decade.

Can Indiana actually make a big move in the Leaders? The Hoosiers one just one game against a miserable Illinois team, and now, all of a sudden, some are talking about the possibility of Indiana playing in Indianapolis for a chance to go to the Rose Bowl. The team might be stronger and more competitive, but that's getting way ahead of the game for a team whose three wins came against the Illini, Indiana State and UMass – IU isn't exactly facing the SEC East. However, with a win over Iowa this week, next week's home date against Wisconsin could really be to see who represents the division in the Big Ten championship.

The Hawkeyes were deep in the Legends chase before clunking against Penn State and Northwestern over the last two weeks, but there will be problems if they can't get by IU and Purdue over the next two games. If they win, all of a sudden they'll have the puck on their stick for the division with a win over Michigan State already in their pocket and with Michigan and Nebraska still to go.

Why Iowa Might Win: Indiana isn't topping anyone's running game. Playing Navy is a problem for the statistics, and Ohio State ripped off 353 yards and three scores and Northwestern came up with 394 yards and five touchdowns. For the most part, the Hoosiers have had problems with the quick quarterbacks and the faster runners, but they also got pounded on by a physical Michigan State with Le'Veon Bell cranking out 121 yards and two scores. Iowa might not have a brutish ground attack, but Mark Weisman – if he can go with an ankle injury – is a tough back who can grind out yards, while Damon Bullock showed against Northwestern that he's back from his concussion issues with 107 yards on 22 carries.

Why Indiana Might Win: The Iowa defensive line has been awful over the last few weeks. There's no pass rush with no sacks in the last two games and just nine on the year, and the run defense has been torn apart with Penn State and Northwestern each rumbling at will. Like IU, Iowa seems to have problems with the quicker, speedier runners, and while the Hoosiers don't have a speedy quarterback to take off, they're getting production from several runners to balance out the offense and take the head off the quarterbacks. Iowa doesn't put up points in chunks and aren't going to scare IU with the passing game.

What To Watch Out For: Indiana junior Stephen Houston hasn't been able to come up with a big breakout game, with the 102 yards against Ball State the season high, but he has turned into a solid workhorse over the last few weeks with seven receiving ability. Not only has he carried the ball 21 times in each of the last two games, but he has also come up with three receiving scores in the last four games to go along with five rushing scores. He ran for 72 yards and a touchdown in last year's lost to the Hawkeyes.

What Will Happen: The Hoosier are far better, and they have lost four games this year by a grand total of ten points, but Iowa is going to be able to do just enough to control the game and roll on the Hoosier defense on the ground. The passing game might not be special, but James Vandenberg will be just good enough to get the job done, while the IU offense won't be able to do enough on third downs.

CFN Prediction: Iowa 31 … Indiana 27
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Indiana -1.5 O/U: 56
Must Watch Rating (5 – The Man With The Iron Fists, 1 – Election coverage until Tuesday morning): 3