Week 11 – Kansas at Texas Tech

Posted Nov 8, 2012

Week 11 Fearless Prediction – Kansas at Texas Tech


Kansas (1-8) at Texas Tech (6-3) Nov. 10, 12:00

Here's The Deal: Everything was going along swimmingly last year for Texas Tech after a 5-2 start, and then the bottom dropped out with a five-game losing streak destroying all the positives. The Red Raiders have a bowl game locked up with six wins, but after losing to Kansas State and Texas over the last two weeks, there could be the concern of a repeat with road games at Oklahoma State and Baylor to close things out. A win over Kansas in the home finale is expected, and anything less than a dominant performance will be a disappointment.

Just when it seemed like Kansas was going to improve and make a few steps forward after losing to Texas in the final seconds of a 21-17 battle, it came out and got its doors blown off by Baylor last week in a 41-14 shellacking. The defense has been mediocre, the offense can't move the ball, and the season has been a complete and total disaster without a win over an FBS team after starting out the year with a win over South Dakota State. With a home date against Iowa State next week before closing out at West Virginia, there are still chances to find something to build on for 2013, but for now, just getting a win would be enough to allow the program a moment of happiness.

Why Kansas Might Win: It's not like the Texas Tech offense is moving like the Texas Tech offense lately. There were blow-up games against West Virginia and TCU – with the numbers in the win over the Horned Frogs helped by going to triple overtime – but the offense struggled to score much over the last few weeks. The offense cranked out more yards than it did against TCU, but the points weren't coming. Can Kansas hold Tech to stalled drives that don't close out with points? The secondary has given up yards and got lit up by Oklahoma and Baylor, but it should be able to bend, but not always break.

Why Texas Tech Might Win: It's hard to win if you can't score. Kansas has yet to score more than 24 points against an FBS team and hasn't scored more than 17 against anyone in the Big 12. Texas Tech's offense might be a bit inconsistent, but it has yet to score fewer than 20 points this year, even against the stronger defenses. KU's running game has been terrific over the last few weeks, but the passing attack has gone from bad to miserable throwing for 39 yards against Texas and 96 yards with two picks against Baylor. Texas Tech's secondary has been fantastic this year ranking second in the Big 12 in pass defense, and this won't be the week the Jayhawks start moving the ball through the air.

What To Watch Out For: James Sims has quietly come up with an All-Big 12 caliber season after being suspended for the first three games of the season. The Kansas junior has been on fire after starting out the year with 91 yards and two scores against Northern Illinois with five straight 100-yard games. The offense might be floundering, but he took off for 175 yards against Texas, 138 yards against Oklahoma State and 102 against Oklahoma. Last year he ran for 85 yards and a score in the loss to Texas Tech on the way to 727 yards and nine scores for the season. So far, in just six games, he has rushed for 748 yards and six touchdowns.

What Will Happen: Texas Tech will come out firing. After struggling the last few weeks once the schedule got a bit tougher, now the offense will blow up on Senior Day with Seth Doege coming off the disappointment against Texas with a huge performance.

CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 48 … Kansas 17
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Texas Tech -25 O/U: 59
Must Watch Rating (5 – Skyfall, 1 – Wreck It Ralph): 2