Week 11 – Baylor at Oklahoma

Posted Nov 8, 2012

Week 11 Fearless Prediction & Game Preview – Baylor at Oklahoma


Baylor (4-4) at Oklahoma (6-2) Nov. 10, 3:30, FOX Sports Net

Here's The Deal: It was one of the best games of the season. Robert Griffin III's heart-stopping performance in the 45-38 win last year all but sealed the Heisman, changed around the Big 12 season, and might have been the most interesting game in the history of Baylor football. The Bears are just as interesting this year – even without RGIII slinging it around – with the nation's best offense and top passing attack. The team isn't all that great, only breaking a long losing streak by getting its turn at Kansas, and it has to win two of the last four games to get bowling, but at least it's entertaining. The Bears are fun, fun, fun, but this week, they'd have no problems being boring if it means a second straight win over the Sooners, which would be the second win over the Sooners ever. Baylor is 1-19 all-time in the series.

It might not seem like it, but Oklahoma is in the hunt for a great bowl game and still has an outside shot at winning the Big 12 title. It'll take two Kansas State losses to get there, but if the Sooners can roll through Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and TCU, and if they can do it with a little bit of flair, they'll at least be in the discussion for an at-large BCS bid. The offense has been good, the defense has been the best in the Big 12, and there is just enough talent to still be considered an elite team. However, the program has gotten by a wee bit on reputation this season and needs to keep the momentum going after getting by the Notre Dame loss with a strong win over Iowa State.

Why Baylor Might Win: There's an outside chance Baylor can simply bomb its way to an upset victory. With an offense that's fantastic at slinging it around the yard, and great at putting up huge numbers, the Bears are going to test an OU secondary that hasn't been pressed too often. The Sooners did a fantastic job against Seth Doege and Texas Tech, and they shut down Texas, but they haven't quite faced anything like this. Baylor's offense isn't going to stop pressing and it's not going to stop pushing the ball deep, so considering OU has a hit-or-miss pass rush, there should be plenty of time for Nick Florence and the passing game to have a nice day. The Bears will crank out over 300 yards through the air, but …

Why Oklahoma Might Win: Putting up big offensive stats doesn't seem to matter for Baylor. The Bears are putting up really, really big numbers, but the defense is dead last in the nation in total defense and is getting destroyed through the air allowing 327 yards per game. With no pass rush and a bad season from the defensive front, nothing has worked so far defensively against everyone but Kansas. Oklahoma should get nice and fat this week after going nuts over the last several games with four straight 300-yard games and nine touchdown passes. There's a chance a 400-yard passing game could be a given, partly because a resurgence from …

What To Watch Out For: Landry Jones. Just when it seemed like he was quickly tumbling down the NFL draft rankings and with some starting to think he made a big, giant mistake not coming out early – which still might be true – he has turned in a whale of a last month. It's not like he was bad over the first few games, but going back to 2011 he went seven straight games without a 300-yard day. Jones, and the Sooners, broke out against Texas, and now he has been red hot throwing for four straight 300-yard games with a terrific 405-yard, four-touchdown day against Iowa State last week. Lost in the defeat to Baylor last season was Jones' 447-yard performance. He threw for 325 yards and three scores against the Bears in 2010.

What Will Happen: Nick Florence will throw for 350 yards and Baylor will hit a few big haymakers, but the Sooners will go off. Expect 600 yards of total OU offense and an enormous statistical day from Jones.

CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 52 … Baylor 24
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Oklahoma -21.5 O/U: 77
Must Watch Rating (5 – Skyfall, 1 – Wreck It Ralph): 3