Week 11 – Louisiana-Lafayette at Florida

Posted Nov 8, 2012

Week 11 Fearless Prediction – Louisiana-Lafayette at Florida


Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3) at Florida (8-1) Nov. 10, 12:21, SEC Network

Here's The Deal: It's going to take a major miracle, but Florida is still holding out a desperate hope of everything falling its way to be in the BCS championship discussion. Realistically, the Gators have a stronger shot at getting an at-large BCS bowl appearance by finishing 11-1 and getting a wee bit of help. Style points haven't mattered too much, but after struggling to get by Missouri last week it's time to crank out a few easy wins with Jacksonville State next week after getting by the Ragin' Cajuns – at least that's the hope.

ULL appeared to be destined for also-ran status in the Sun Belt, and then everything turned around with a shocking rivalry win over ULM to put the possibility of a bowl bid on the table. With relatively easy games against South Alabama and Florida Atlantic still to come after dealing with WKU next week, getting to seven wins might not be a problem. However, a stunning win over the Gators would all but seal the deal.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a strong offense, a decent O line, and a great kicking game, but will it have enough to move the ball against a loaded Gator D? Don't expect a shootout of any kind, but this might stay interesting longer than Florida fans might like.

Why Louisiana-Lafayette Might Win: The ULL pass defense has been miserable, allowing close to 300 yards per game having no luck whatsoever against the midrange passers – there's no reason for concern this week. It's not like the Florida offense is blowing the doors off of anyone. The SEC's worst passing offense isn't bombing away, while the points have been relatively hard to come by lately with just 23 points against Georgia and Missouri and no pass protection. Four of the nine passing touchdowns came against South Carolina, but Jeff Driskel only threw for 93 yards. Can the Ragin' Cajuns shorten the game and keep the score in check? Florida's offense might do that for them.

Why Florida Might Win: Get ready for lots and lots of pounding. ULL has had several big games against the run, allowing fewer than 100 yards in four of the first five games, but that fifth game was a problem – Oklahoma State tore off 330 yards and four scores as part of a 742-yard offensive day. Whenever the D has had to deal with a real running game, it has buckled giving up 242 yards to North Texas and 257 yards to Arkansas State making it 3-for-3 losing to the teams that finished with over 100 yards rushing. Florida has been held to under 100 twice in battles against Georgia and South Carolina – it's not going to happen this week.

What To Watch Out For: Every once in a while, a big-time team has to face a squad from an inferior conference and gets scared to death by one player who goes off. ULL quarterback Terrence Broadway could be that guy. The sophomore has grown into more of a passer with 374 yards and three touchdowns two weeks ago against Arkansas State and 373 and four touchdowns last week against ULM. Also a terrific runner, he has taken off for 80 yards or more in two of his last three games while accounting for 349 yards or more of total offense in each of the last three.

What Will Happen: The Gators will swarm all over Broadway, but the ULL offense will have a few decent moments. However, the Ragin' Cajuns will get destroyed on the ground as the Gators hold on to the ball for close to 40 minutes in long drive and long, grinding drive.

CFN Prediction: Florida 45 … Louisiana-Lafayette 13
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Florida -26.5 O/U: 50.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Skyfall, 1 – Wreck It Ralph): 2