Week 13 – Indiana at Purdue

Posted Nov 23, 2012

Week 13 Fearless Prediction & Game Preview – Indiana at Purdue

Indiana (4-7) at Purdue (5-6) Nov. 24, 12:00, BTN

Here's The Deal: It has been a rocky road, but after a rough five game losing streak, Purdue is in the exact position it was hoping it could be a few weeks ago with a tough task to deal with. Iowa and Illinois aren't exactly Ohio State and Nebraska this year, but the two games were on the road and the Boilermakers needed to win both to set up a shot this week at becoming bowl eligible. It took two fights, winning both games by just three points each, but now it'll just take a win in the Old Oaken Bucket series to get a 13th date.

Indiana has gone in the exact opposite direction. It, too, beat Illinois and Iowa, but then came the problems getting blasted by Wisconsin and Penn State by a combined score of 107 to 36. The run defense has been miserable over the last several games and the offense hasn't been able to pick up the slack. Now this has become the team's season-finale after getting blown away by Penn State, and it would be extra sweet if a win also meant Purdue was kept out of a bowl.

Why Indiana Might Win: The Hoosiers might simply outbomb the Boilermakers. Purdue's pass defense has been decent, at least statistically, because it hasn't faced too many top passing teams. Penn State's Matt McGloin had few problems throwing for 321 yards, and now comes the Big Ten's leading passing game – at least in terms of yards. IU can throw and throw some more, chucking it for 454 yards last week against Penn State and with two 400-yard days in the last three. Quarterback Cameron Coffman isn't going to play it safe.

Why Purdue Might Win: As long as Purdue is able to stay patient and let the running game work, it should be fine. The Boilermakers might not have a potent ground game, but it worked over the last two weeks and has the speed to come up with a few big gashes here and there. They're 5-1 when they run for 149 yards or more, and the Hoosiers have allowed that many or more in eight of the 11 games. That means the spotlight could fall on …

What To Watch Out For: Akeem Shavers, the speedy Boilermaker back who's playing his final game after coming up with a consistent season. Oddly enough, he has rushed for five touchdowns this year with one coming in each of the five wins. Last week he was fed the ball a bit more against Illinois, and he delivers with a season-best 99 yards with a score. He missed the Indiana game last season, but Akeem Hunt came through with 100 yards on just ten carries. Hunt's role has been diminished to next to nothing while Ralph Bolden, who ran for 93 yards against Illinois.

What Will Happen: Can Purdue really get this close to a bowl and blow it? Indiana has the offense to make this a fun firefight, but the defense isn't coming up with any stops of significance lately. Purdue will win, but it'll have to earn it.

CFN Prediction: Purdue 34 … Indiana 27
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Purdue -5.5 O/U: 62.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Beware of Mr. Baker, 1 – Life of Pi): 3