Week 14 - Oklahoma State at Baylor

Posted Nov 30, 2012

Week 14 Fearless Prediction - Oklahoma State at Baylor

Oklahoma State (7-4) at Baylor (6-5) Dec. 1, 12:00, FX

Here's The Deal: It's bowl positioning time as Oklahoma State shoots for a nice 8-4 season and a possible trip the Cotton, while Baylor is looking to build off of its overtime win over Texas Tech and improbable blowout of then-No. 1 Kansas State to potentially move up the Big 12 final standings.

At the very least, this has the potential to be the shootout of all shootouts with Oklahoma State fifth in the nation in total offense and third in scoring, and Baylor second in yards and fifth in scoring. The two combine to average 1,123 yards and 90 points per game, and considering just about every Bears game has been a wild shootout and the Cowboys have hung 162 points on the board over the last three games, get ready to have some fun.

Oklahoma State is coming off a tough overtime loss to Oklahoma, and while there have been some nice wins over West Virginia and Iowa State, there hasn't been anything special with losses to the top teams on the slate. Baylor hardly qualifies as a Big 12 star, but it proved it has the firepower and the ability to rise up play with anyone.

The Bears overcame a rough stretch to win three of their last four to become bowl eligible, and while the defense hasn't improved, the offense has continued to hum with an ultra-efficient passing game and a strong ground attack. Yes, there is life after RG3.

Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Baylor still isn't playing any defense. The most bizarre and confounding aspect of Kansas State's loss in Waco was how the Wildcat offense went inexplicably flat against the worst defense in college football. The Bears have no pass rush, little production from the defensive front and the secondary has been torched on a regular basis. Baylor's defense has allowed fewer than 500 yards of total offense to just four teams all season long – Sam Houston State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas State. Oklahoma State has only been held under 400 yards once – oddly enough, against Kansas – and is averaging 548 yards per game. Keeping up the pace isn't going to be a problem.

Why Baylor Might Win: It's not like the Oklahoma State secondary is slowing anyone down. As always with the Cowboys, the yards allowed by the secondary seem to come out of necessity, with teams throwing to try to keep up the pace, but there aren't a lot of deep plays being given up. OSU hasn't had to deal with too many mobile quarterbacks, but Collin Klein didn't have too many problems and Arizona's Matt Scott ran for 55 yards and a score. The OSU run defense doesn't get gouged – too many teams are busy throwing the ball – but the front seven can be run on if someone commits to it. Baylor won't do that, but it should be able to come up with a few big plays here and there thanks to the emergence of …

What To Watch Out For: Glasco Martin and Lache Seastrunk have done a great job of complementing Nick Florence and a strong Bear passing attack. Martin was an afterthought last season, but now the powerback is thundering away with five of his 11 rushing scores on the year coming in the last two games. He's the bulk, with 157 yards blasted out against Kansas and 113 against Kansas State, but it's Seastrunk who has been the killer. The Oregon transfer has ripped off three 100-yard games in the last four – with 91 yards and three scores against Oklahoma – to become one of the nation's hottest backs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's Joseph Randle got back to form against Oklahoma with 113 yards and four scores in the wild shootout. Last year he came up with his best day of the season against the Bears with 152 yards and a career-high four scores.

What Will Happen: Expect lots and lots and lots of yards and a thrilling game, sort of like last week's Oklahoma overtime win over Oklahoma State. However, this week the Cowboys will come through with a good, balanced performance as the Baylor defense turns back into the Baylor defense.

CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 54 … Baylor 47
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Oklahoma State -4.5 O/U: 86.5
Must Watch Rating (5 – Crossfire Hurricane, 1 – Comic Book Men: 3.5