2013 Rose - Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14

Posted Jan 1, 2013

2012-2013 Bowls - CFN's Preview & Prediction for the 2013 Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO

2013 Rose

Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14

- 2012-2013 CFN Bowl Central
Rose Bowl Thoughts Cirminiello | Johnson | Harrison | Zemek

National Rankings
83rd Total Offense 60th
21st Total Defense 13th
69th Scoring Offense 50th
14th Scoring Defense 19th
50th Rushing Offense 12th
3rd Run Defense 21st
92nd Passing Offense 111th
83rd Passing Defense 23rd
29th Turnover Margin 45th
Position Rankings
relative to each other
5 Highest - 1 Lowest
S   W
3 Quarterbacks 2.5
4 RBs 5
2.5 Receivers 2
3.5 O Line 3.5
4.5 D Line 3
5 Linebackers 5
3 Secondary 4
3.5 Spec Teams 4
4.5 Coaching 4.5
(AP) PASADENA, Calif. -- Although Stanford didn't score many style points in the 99th Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio, the Cardinal could celebrate because they didn't let Wisconsin score any points at all after halftime.

Stepfan Taylor rushed for 89 yards and an early touchdown, Kevin Hogan passed for 123 yards, and Stanford (No. 6 BCS, No. 8 AP) won its first Rose Bowl since 1972, beating the Badgers 20-14 on Tuesday night.

Usua Amanam made the decisive interception near midfield with 2:30 to play as the Pac-12 champion Cardinal (12-2) ended their four-decade drought in the Granddaddy of Them All with arguably the biggest bowl win yet during the long-struggling program's recent renaissance.

"We knew this was going to be a battle, and we wouldn't expect it any other way," Stanford coach David Shaw said. "We know it's going to be tight, it's going to be close, and we're going to find a way to win. That's the way it's been all year."

Stanford clamped down on the Big Ten champion Badgers (8-6), who lost the Rose Bowl in heartbreaking fashion for the third consecutive season. Montee Ball rushed for 100 yards and his FBS-record 83rd touchdown, but Wisconsin managed only 82 yards in that scoreless second half.

With impressive defense of its own, Wisconsin still stayed in position for an upset in the one-game return of Hall of Fame coach Barry Alvarez, who was back on the Badgers' sideline in his red sweater-vest seven years after hanging up his whistle.

"This group of kids has been through a lot, and they competed extremely hard against a very high-quality team," Alvarez said. "We've played three very good football games (at the Rose Bowl). These guys played hard. In fact, most people would like to get here once. But we just didn't get it done."

Kelsey Young rushed for a score on Stanford's opening possession, and Taylor scored on the second. Wisconsin kept the Cardinal out of the end zone for the final 51 minutes, holding them to three points in the second half, but Stanford's defense didn't need any more help in the Cardinal's eighth straight victory.

"We knew coming in, it was going to be a physical game," Taylor said. "We knew they know how to play against power as well as us. They did a great job. It was our defense keeping us in the game that enabled us to get this win."

After winning the Orange Bowl two years ago and losing the Fiesta Bowl last season, Stanford earned its first conference title and its first Rose Bowl berth in 13 years. The Cardinal finished with 12 victories for just the second time in school history -- and the second time in the last three years.

The Cardinal ousted top-ranked Oregon on the way to the biggest season yet in the improbable surge of success started by Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck. Many Pac-12 observers expected a sharp decline at Stanford this season -- but Shaw and Hogan, who took over as the starting quarterback in November, have accomplished something even Harbaugh and Luck couldn't manage.

"I think it served as some motivation for us throughout the year," Amanam said. "I think it's just a testament to our program and how we train and prepare every season."

When Bret Bielema abruptly left Wisconsin for Arkansas after winning the Big Ten title game, Alvarez agreed to coach his fourth Rose Bowl before handing off his program to new coach Gary Andersen, who met with Alvarez on the field before the game.

But the Badgers' third straight Rose Bowl appearance ended in much the same way as the last two: With the offense failing to get the late score the Badgers desperately needed.

"This stings just as much, because we fell extremely short when we had the opportunity to win," Ball said. "We had numerous opportunities to capitalize on big plays, and we fell short. ... This is not the way we want to be remembered. Speaking for the entire senior group, this is not the way we wanted to go out."

Curt Phillips went 10 for 16 for 83 yards passing and that crucial interception for Wisconsin, doing more with 64 yards on the ground. Jordan Fredrick caught a short TD pass right before halftime, but no Badgers receiver had more than Jared Abbrederis' three catches.

And though Ball became the first player to score touchdowns in three Rose Bowls, the powerful back fell short of Ron Dayne's career Rose Bowl rushing record, swarmed under by waves of tacklers from one of the toughest defenses in the nation -- a defense that shut down the top-ranked Ducks in mid-November to pave Stanford's path to Pasadena.

Wisconsin returned to Pasadena in a much more roundabout way as the first five-loss team to make it, losing three overtime games and making the Big Ten title game only because Ohio State and Penn State were ineligible. The Badgers then steamrolled Nebraska to become the first Big Ten team in three straight Rose Bowls since Michigan in the late 1970s.

With the Rose Bowl filled with fans wearing the schools' near-identical cardinal-and-white gear, Stanford went up 14-0 on Taylor's 3-yard TD run just 8½ minutes in. Wisconsin briefly got rolling behind Ball, who rushed for 296 yards in his first two Rose Bowls.

Stanford stopped James White inside the 1 on fourth down early in the second quarter after a touchdown run by Ball was wiped out by a holding penalty, but Ball scored on the next drive. The Badgers then mounted an 85-yard drive in the waning 2½ minutes of the first half, with Phillips' 38-yard run setting up Fredrick's short TD catch to trim Stanford's halftime lead to 17-14.

After halftime adjustments, both defenses dominated the scoreless third quarter, allowing just three combined first downs.

Wisconsin's personal foul on a fair-catch punt return finally sparked Stanford early in the fourth quarter. Stanford got inside the Wisconsin 5 before stalling, and Jordan Williamson's short field goal put the Cardinal up by six points with 4:23 to go.

The Badgers got to midfield, but Phillips threw behind Jacob Pedersen, and Amanam easily made the pick.

"I just happened to be at the right place at the right time," Amanam said. "We were able to kind of seal the game on that one."

Stanford (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (8-5)
Jan. 1, 4:30, ESPN

Here's The Deal … Yeah, it's been great for Wisconsin to get to three straight Rose Bowls, but going isn't enough. At least that was the snip from Barry Alvarez to Bret Bielema over the last few seasons, but now Bielema is doing his Wooooo, Pig Sooey chant and the man who made Wisconsin into a powerhouse gets one last shot to add to his legend.

Bielema wanted to coach in the Rose Bowl, but that wasn't going to happen. At the request of the players, Alvarez will be on the sidelines in search of his fourth win in Pasadena after coming up with wins over UCLA in 1994 and 1999 and Stanford in 2000, but to get the victory, he and Bucky have to buck a nasty trend.

Helped by Wisconsin's inexcusable loss to TCU in 2011 and last season's tough firefight with Oregon, the Big Ten has won a granddaddy total of one Rose Bowl – Ohio State over Oregon in 2010 – since the Badger 17-9 victory over the Cardinal 13 games ago. Granted, the Big Ten wasn't in three of the games, and the dominance of USC had a lot to do with the problem, but the beleaguered conference needs to come up with a win again.

Meanwhile, before Oregon won last year, the last non-USC team to win the Rose Bowl was Washington in 2001, and before that it was Washington in 1992. Stanford has the toughness, the talent and the make-up to show just how strong the new and improved Pac-12 is, but more importantly for the program, beating the Badgers would mean 35 wins over the last three seasons while coming up with the best season since going 10-0 with a Rose Bowl win over Nebraska in 1940.

How good has Stanford been? There was a 17-13 loss to Washington early in the year, coming before the quarterback situation was settled, and the controversial overtime loss to Notre Dame. That's it. Highlighted by the thrilling overtime win over Oregon, Stanford is on a seven-game winning streak complete with a Pac-12 title. However, the Orange Bowl blowout over Virginia Tech two seasons ago was the lone bowl victory in the last five going back to 1996.

This current run by the Cardinal isn't a fad. Not only did the team prove that there's life after Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck, but with strong recruiting classes coming in and a good young nucleus, several more January trips to Pasadena should be in the future, but first, getting the first win since beating Michigan in the 1972 Rose Bowl would be nice.

But Stanford, as good as it has been, is taking a backseat in the narrative thanks to Alvarez's return. While a loss wouldn't diminish his legacy – even if it's a blowout – a victory would take his status to a whole other level with Rose Bowl wins in three decades. It would also be a big cheeseball in Bielema's face if the boss could get the job done that the successor couldn't, and it would reestablish Wisconsin as a true big game player again before Gary Andersen takes over the reins.

But beyond all the implications, it should be a slugfest between two great running teams that like to get really, really physical. Wisconsin might have lost its last two Rose Bowls, but they were fantastic games. This one should be every bit as strong.

Players to Watch: While he wasn't a Heisman finalist like he was after running for 33 touchdowns in 2011, Wisconsin's record-setting running back Montee Ball has been almost as productive. Overall, the offense, especially the line, hasn't functioned like it did last year with Russell Wilson under center, but Ball was still able to rip off 1,730 yards and 21 touchdowns despite being a marked man. In the last two seasons, the Badgers are 0-4 when Ball is held to under 100 yards by a BCS team including the loss to Michigan State in late October. Since then he has been on fire with 198 yards and three scores against Indiana and 202 yards and three touchdowns in the Big Ten championship. As quick as ever, and even more patient with his reads, he's able to use his balance and his experience to carry the offense even against a few top run defenses. Last year he tore off 164 yards and a score against Oregon, and he ran for 132 yards and a touchdown in the loss to TCU. This time around in the Rose Bowl, he'll face his toughest test of the season to close out a brilliant career.

Stanford has an elite back of its own in Stepfan Taylor, who's used to coming up big when the lights are on. At 5-11 and 211 pounds, Taylor has the size and strength to batter defenses with tough inside runs with 161 yards against Oregon and 102 against Notre Dame on the way to a 1,442y-ard, 12 score campaign. More of north-south operator than someone who'll dance around, he hits the hole with authority, rarely getting stopped behind the line of scrimmage while proving he can take a pounding. He was handed the ball 35 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns in the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma State, and he'll get the ball at least that much in the Rose.

Wisconsin veteran linebackers Mike Taylor and Chris Borland aren't going to be fazed by the Rose Bowl setting. Even though they got blown past by Oregon's speed backs, they still put up big numbers with Taylor making 13 tackles and Borland coming up with 12. The leader of the D, Taylor was a machine again this season with 120 tackles with 18 tackles for loss. In the final game of his career, he should lock horns several times with Taylor and should be a lock for double-digit tackles. Borland missed time late in the year banged up, but he came back roaring with 13 stops against Nebraska to close out with 95 tackles.

Stanford will win if … the defensive front seven plays like it has all season long. No. 1 in the nation in sacks and No. 1 in tackles for loss, this is a tremendously aggressive group that has proven itself time and again, keeping Oregon to 198 yards and a touchdown and Notre Dame to 150. However, UCLA was able to get physical in the Pac-12 championship allowing a season-high 284 yards and three touchdowns. Now everyone is rested and the front four won't get shoved around. Shayne Skov and Trent Murphy don't miss tackles and are as dangerous as any pair in America. Murphy leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss, while Skov is a brick wall against the run with the toughness and smarts to sniff out the Badger running plays – they're not going to fall for anything.

The offense needs to get Taylor going early and has to establish the ground game of its own. The Cardinal failed to run for a touchdown in just two games this season – the two losses to Washington and Notre Dame. Wisconsin's run defense had major problems in both games against Nebraska, but it went six games without allowing a rushing touchdown and gave up multiple rushing scores against Purdue, Ohio State and in the Big Ten championship against Nebraska. Stanford has to be every bit as physical as Wisconsin.

Wisconsin will win if … it keeps the chains moving and keeps control. The Badgers are 12th in the nation in time of possession, but other teams that could move the chains had problems doing against the Cardinal. Oregon State finished up the regular season 14th in the country in time of possession, but Stanford had to ball for two more minutes in the win. San Jose State was a master of the clock, but Stanford won the time battle against the Spartans. Against Oregon, who doesn't care a lick about milking the clock, the Cardinal dominated, holding the ball for a whopping 37:41. Wisconsin has been miserable this year on third downs, converting just 34.6% of the time, and Stanford is terrific on the money downs ranking 15th in the country in third down D. The Badgers have to buck the trend.

To do that, Wisconsin has to throw well and it needs Jared Abbrederis to be unstoppable. As good as Ball is, Abbrederis might be the team's most valuable player as the only true receiving threat. When he was knocked out against Oregon State, the Beavers teed off into the Badger backfield and nothing worked from then on. He doesn't have to come up with ten catches, but he has to make the three grabs he makes count, and he has to at least give the threat of a downfield pass. If he's not productive, the Badger O will bog down in a big hurry.

What Will Happen: You don't think Barry would come out of retirement and stick his neck out without thinking he really and truly could pull off a fourth Rose Bowl win, do you? Yes, the Stanford run defense is amazing, and yes, there will be times when the Badgers are painful offensively, but the Pac-12 championship game provided a glimpse of what might come. UCLA's Johnathan Franklin rumbled for 194 yards and Brett Hundley took off for 83, and while Wisconsin won't getting any rushing production from quarterback Curt Phillips, it will use James White in the Wildcat formation from time to time to go along with what Ball will do. It will be a fight down to the final seconds, but Wisconsin will manage to finally break the Rose Bowl losing streak with a big day from the defense and one key play in the second half offensively to turn the game around.

CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 20 … Stanford 17
ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Stanford -6.5 O/U: 47.5

Rose Bowl History

2013 Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14
2012 Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38
2011 TCU 21, Wisconsin 19
2010 Ohio State 26, Oregon 17
2009 USC 38, Penn State 24
2008 USC 49, Illinois 17
2007 USC 32, Michigan 18
2006 Texas 41, USC 38
2005 Texas 38, Michigan 37
2004 USC 28, Michigan 14
2003 Oklahoma 34, Washington St 14
2002 Miami 37, Nebraska 14
2001 Washington 34, Purdue 24
2000 Wisconsin 17, Stanford 9
1999 Wisconsin 38, UCLA 31
1998 Michigan 21, Washington St 16
1997 Ohio State 20, Arizona State 17
1996 USC 41, Northwestern 32
1995 Penn State 38, Oregon 20
1994 Wisconsin 21, UCLA 16
1993 Michigan 38, Washington 31
1992 Washington 34, Michigan 14
1991 Washington 46, Iowa 34
1990 USC 17, Michigan 10
1989 Michigan 22, USC 14
1988 Michigan State 20, USC 17
1987 Arizona State 22, Michigan 15
1986 UCLA 45, Iowa 28
1985 USC 20, Ohio State 17
1984 UCLA 45, Illinois 9
1983 UCLA 24, Michigan 14
1982 Washington 28, Iowa 0
1981 Michigan 23, Washington 6
1980 USC 17, Ohio State 16
1979 USC 17, Michigan 10
1978 Washington 27, Michigan 20
1977 USC 14, Michigan 6
1976 UCLA 23, Ohio State 10
1975 USC 18, Ohio State 17
1974 Ohio State 42, USC 21
1973 USC 42, Ohio State 17
1972 Stanford 13, Michigan 12
1971 Stanford 27, Ohio State 17
1970 USC 10, Michigan 3
1969 Ohio State 27, USC 16
1968 USC 14, Indiana 3
1967 Purdue 14, USC 13
1966 UCLA 14, Michigan State 12
1965 Michigan 34, Oregon State 7
1964 Illinois 17, Washington 7
1963 USC 42, Wisconsin 37
1962 Minnesota 21, UCLA 3
1961 Washington 17, Minnesota 7
1960 Washington 44, Wisconsin 8
1959 Iowa 38, California 12
1958 Ohio State 10, Oregon 7
1957 Iowa 35, Oregon State 19
1956 Michigan State 17, UCLA 14
1955 Ohio State 20, USC 7
1954 Michigan State 28, UCLA 20
1953 USC 7, Wisconsin 0
1952 Illinois 40, Stanford 7
1951 Michigan 14, California 6
1950 Ohio State 17, California 14
1949 Northwestern 20, California 14
1948 Michigan 49, USC 0
1947 Illinois 45, UCLA 14
1946 Alabama 34, USC 14
1945 USC 25, Tennessee 0
1944 USC 29, Washington 0
1943 Georgia 9, UCLA 0
1942 Oregon State 20, Duke 16 (at Durham, N.C.)
1941 Stanford 21, Nebraska 13
1940 USC 14, Tennessee 0
1939 USC 7, Duke 3
1938 California 13, Alabama 0
1937 Pittsburgh 21, Washington 0
1936 Stanford 7, SMU 0
1935 Alabama 29, Stanford 13
1934 Columbia 7, Stanford 0
1933 USC 35, Pittsburgh 0
1932 USC 21, Tulane 12
1931 Alabama 24, Washington St 0
1930 USC 47, Pittsburgh 14
1929 Georgia Tech 8, California 7
1928 Stanford 7, Pittsburgh 6
1927 Alabama 7, Stanford 7
1926 Alabama 20, Washington 19
1925 Notre Dame 27, Stanford 10
1924 Navy 14, Washington 14
1923 USC 14, Penn State 3
1922 California 0, Washington & Jefferson 0
1921 California 28, Ohio State 0
1920 Harvard 7, Oregon 6
1919 Great Lakes 17, Mare Island 0
1918 Mare Island 19, Camp Lewis 7
1917 Oregon 14, Pennsylvania 0
1916 Washington State 14, Brown 0
1902 Michigan 49, Stanford 0