One of the things that's important to me as I continue working on Compu-Picks is keeping records of how the system is doing. This is why I have picks monitored by sports-watch, why I had Stassen track Compu-Picks' preseason projections starting this year (and Compu-Picks finished with THE MOST ACCURATE league projections in the country), and why I'm posting a number of articles on my own discussing how the system has done. This is the first in that series of articles.
As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. Now that the season is over, it's time to look back and see how those picks did.
There were plenty of hits and misses, but overall the picks ended up doing extremely well. By units, against the TheGreek lines Compu-Picks went 39-28 (58.2% win rate), against the Bovada lines Compu-Picks went 56-44 (56.0% win rate), and against the 5Dimes lines Compu-Picks went an amazing 124-75 (62.3% win rate)!
The table below shows the picks and results in more detail, in case you'd like to follow along at home. Picks are split into confidence levels of 1-4, with 4 being the most confident picks and 1 being the least. Over/under picks are marked with (W) or (L) for wins or losses; any picks without a W or L marker ended as a push.
| | | | | TheGreek August 25th | | Bovada August 25th | | 5Dimes August 26th |
| Team | League | Actual Wins | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units |
| Boston College | ACC | 2 | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 4 | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 4 |
| Clemson | ACC | 10 | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | |
| Florida State | ACC | 10 | | 9.5 | Over(W) | 2 | | 10 | Over | 1 | | 10 | Over | 1 |
| Maryland | ACC | 4 | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 7 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Duke | ACC | 6 | | | | | | 3.5 | Over(W) | 4 | | 3.5 | Over(W) | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6 | | 8 | | | | 8 | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Miami (Florida) | ACC | 7 | | 7 | Under | 3 | | 7 | Under | 3 | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 8 | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 4 | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 4 | | 8 | Under | 4 |
| Virginia | ACC | 4 | | 7 | Under(W) | 4 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6 | | 9.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 9 | Under(W) | 2 | | 9 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 1 | | | | | | 3.5 | | | | 3.5 | | |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 11 | | 8 | Under(L) | 3 | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 2 | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 10 | | 10 | Over | 1 | | 10 | Over | 1 | | 9.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 7 | | 8 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | |
| Texas Christian | Big 12 | 7 | | 8.5 | Over(L) | 1 | | 8 | Over(L) | 2 | | 8 | Over(L) | 2 |
| Texas | Big 12 | 8 | | 9 | Over(L) | 2 | | 9 | Over(L) | 2 | | 9 | Over(L) | 2 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 7 | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 1 | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 7 | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | |
| | | | | TheGreek August 25th | | Bovada August 25th | | 5Dimes August 26th |
| Team | League | Actual Wins | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 2 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 1 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 1 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 3.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 12 | | 9 | Over(W) | 2 | | 9.5 | Over(W) | 1 | | 9.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 8 | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 2 | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | | |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 7 | | 9 | Under(W) | 2 | | 9.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 9.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 4 | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 1 | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 1 | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 1 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 8 | | 9 | | | | 9 | | | | 8.5 | | |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 6 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | | |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 10 | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 9 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Notre Dame | Indep | 12 | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 3 | | 8 | Under(L) | 2 | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| California | Pac-12 | 3 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 4 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 4 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 11 | | 10 | Over(W) | 2 | | 10.5 | Over(W) | 1 | | 10.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 9 | | | | | | 4.5 | Over(W) | 3 | | 4.5 | Over(W) | 3 |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 10 | | 7 | Over(W) | 4 | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 3 | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 3 |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 7 | | 7.5 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 3 | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 3 |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | 7 | | 5 | Under(L) | 3 | | 5 | Under(L) | 3 | | 5 | Under(L) | 3 |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 3.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 9 | | 6 | Over(W) | 4 | | 6 | Over(W) | 4 | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 3 |
| Southern California | Pac-12 | 7 | | 10.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 10.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 10.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Utah | Pac-12 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 3 |
| | | | | TheGreek August 25th | | Bovada August 25th | | 5Dimes August 26th |
| Team | League | Actual Wins | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units |
| Florida | SEC | 11 | | 8 | Over(W) | 2 | | 8 | Over(W) | 2 | | 8 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Georgia | SEC | 11 | | 9.5 | Under(L) | 1 | | 9.5 | Under(L) | 1 | | 9.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 2 | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 4 | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| Missouri | SEC | 5 | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10 | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 8.5 | | |
| Tennessee | SEC | 5 | | 7 | Under(W) | 2 | | 7.5 | Under(W) | 3 | | 7.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 8 | | | | | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 2 | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Alabama | SEC | 11 | | 10.5 | | | | 10.5 | | | | 10.5 | | |
| Arkansas | SEC | 4 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Auburn | SEC | 3 | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 2 | | 7.5 | Over(L) | 2 | | 7 | Over(L) | 3 |
| Louisiana State | SEC | 10 | | 10 | Under | 2 | | 10 | Under | 2 | | | | |
| Mississippi | SEC | 6 | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 3 | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 3 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 8 | | | | | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 2 | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 10 | | 7 | Under(L) | 2 | | 7 | Under(L) | 2 | | 6.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Cincinnati | Big East | 9 | | 7.5 | | | | 7.5 | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Connecticut | Big East | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | | |
| Louisville | Big East | 10 | | 9 | Under(L) | 2 | | 9 | Under(L) | 2 | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | Big East | 6 | | 7 | | | | 7 | | | | 7 | | |
| Rutgers | Big East | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| South Florida | Big East | 3 | | 7.5 | | | | 7.5 | | | | 8 | | |
| Syracuse | Big East | 7 | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 3 | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 3 |
| Temple | Big East | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Over(L) | 3 |
| Army | Indep | 2 | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 1 | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 1 |
| Brigham Young | Indep | 7 | | 8 | Over(L) | 3 | | 8 | Over(L) | 3 | | 8.5 | Over(L) | 2 |
| Navy | Indep | 8 | | | | | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 1 | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| | | | | TheGreek August 25th | | Bovada August 25th | | 5Dimes August 26th |
| Team | League | Actual Wins | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(W) | 4 |
| Boise State | Mountain West | 10 | | 9.5 | | | | 9.5 | | | | 9.5 | | |
| Colorado State | Mountain West | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Fresno State | Mountain West | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Hawaii | Mountain West | 3 | | | | | | 4.5 | Over(L) | 3 | | 4.5 | Over(L) | 3 |
| Nevada | Mountain West | 7 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | | |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Mountain West | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 3 |
| Wyoming | Mountain West | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 2 |
| Central Florida | C-USA | 9 | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 1 | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 1 | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| East Carolina | C-USA | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
| Houston | C-USA | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 9.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| Marshall | C-USA | 5 | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 2 | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Memphis | C-USA | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Rice | C-USA | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 3.5 | Over(W) | 3 |
| Southern Methodist | C-USA | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Southern Mississippi | C-USA | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Tulane | C-USA | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | Over(L) | 4 |
| Tulsa | C-USA | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Over(W) | 3 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | C-USA | 3 | | | | | | | | | | 3.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Texas-El Paso | C-USA | 3 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| | | | | TheGreek August 25th | | Bovada August 25th | | 5Dimes August 26th |
| Team | League | Actual Wins | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units | | Line | Pick | Units |
| UMass | MAC | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 1.5 | Over(L) | 1 |
| Akron | MAC | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Ball State | MAC | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Buffalo | MAC | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 6 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Over(W) | 4 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Kent | MAC | 11 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | | |
| Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Over(L) | 3 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 11 | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 | | |
| Ohio | MAC | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 9.5 | Under(W) | 2 |
| Toledo | MAC | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee State | Sun Belt | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(L) | 2 |
| North Texas | Sun Belt | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | | |
| Florida Atlantic | Sun Belt | 3 | | | | | | | | | | 3.5 | | |
| Florida International | Sun Belt | 3 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | | |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 7 | | | | | | | | | | 6.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | | |
| Idaho | WAC | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | | |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 | Over(W) | 1 |
| New Mexico State | WAC | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(W) | 4 |
| San Jose State | WAC | 10 | | | | | | | | | | 5.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Utah State | WAC | 10 | | | | | | | | | | 7.5 | Under(L) | 1 |
| Texas St | WAC | 4 | | | | | | | | | | 4.5 | Under(W) | 1 |
| UTSA | WAC | 8 | | | | | | | | | | 2.5 | Over(W) | 2 |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2012 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
