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Compu-Picks: 2012 - How it Did Part 1

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Dec 8, 2012


Compu-Picks 2012 Review - How it Did, Part One: Win Total Picks

One of the things that's important to me as I continue working on Compu-Picks is keeping records of how the system is doing. This is why I have picks monitored by sports-watch, why I had Stassen track Compu-Picks' preseason projections starting this year (and Compu-Picks finished with THE MOST ACCURATE league projections in the country), and why I'm posting a number of articles on my own discussing how the system has done. This is the first in that series of articles.


As many of you remember, before the season started I published win total projections as well as picks against the books' lines. Now that the season is over, it's time to look back and see how those picks did.


There were plenty of hits and misses, but overall the picks ended up doing extremely well. By units, against the TheGreek lines Compu-Picks went 39-28 (58.2% win rate), against the Bovada lines Compu-Picks went 56-44 (56.0% win rate), and against the 5Dimes lines Compu-Picks went an amazing 124-75 (62.3% win rate)!


The table below shows the picks and results in more detail, in case you'd like to follow along at home. Picks are split into confidence levels of 1-4, with 4 being the most confident picks and 1 being the least. Over/under picks are marked with (W) or (L) for wins or losses; any picks without a W or L marker ended as a push.


TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Actual Wins Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Boston College ACC 2 5.5 Over(L) 4 5.5 Over(L) 4
Clemson ACC 10 8.5 8.5 8.5
Florida State ACC 10 9.5 Over(W) 2 10 Over 1 10 Over 1
Maryland ACC 4 4.5 Under(W) 2 4.5 Under(W) 2
North Carolina State ACC 7 7.5 Under(W) 3
Wake Forest ACC 5 5.5 Under(W) 1
Duke ACC 6 3.5 Over(W) 4 3.5 Over(W) 4
Georgia Tech ACC 6 8 8 7.5
Miami (Florida) ACC 7 7 Under 3 7 Under 3 6.5 Under(L) 2
North Carolina ACC 8 7.5 Under(L) 4 7.5 Under(L) 4 8 Under 4
Virginia ACC 4 7 Under(W) 4 6.5 Under(W) 3 6.5 Under(W) 3
Virginia Tech ACC 6 9.5 Under(W) 3 9 Under(W) 2 9 Under(W) 2
Baylor Big 12 7 6.5 Under(L) 2
Iowa State Big 12 6 4.5 Under(L) 1
Kansas Big 12 1 3.5 3.5
Kansas State Big 12 11 8 Under(L) 3 7.5 Under(L) 2 7.5 Under(L) 2
Oklahoma Big 12 10 10 Over 1 10 Over 1 9.5 Over(W) 2
Oklahoma State Big 12 7 8 8.5 8.5
Texas Christian Big 12 7 8.5 Over(L) 1 8 Over(L) 2 8 Over(L) 2
Texas Big 12 8 9 Over(L) 2 9 Over(L) 2 9 Over(L) 2
Texas Tech Big 12 7 6.5 Under(L) 1 6.5 Under(L) 1
West Virginia Big 12 7 8.5 8.5 8.5
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Actual Wins Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Illinois Big Ten 2 6.5 Under(W) 1 6.5 Under(W) 1 6.5 Under(W) 1
Indiana Big Ten 4 3.5 Over(W) 1
Ohio State Big Ten 12 9 Over(W) 2 9.5 Over(W) 1 9.5 Over(W) 1
Penn State Big Ten 8 5.5 Under(L) 2 5.5 Under(L) 2
Purdue Big Ten 6 6.5
Wisconsin Big Ten 7 9 Under(W) 2 9.5 Under(W) 3 9.5 Under(W) 3
Iowa Big Ten 4 7.5 Over(L) 1 7.5 Over(L) 1 7.5 Over(L) 1
Michigan Big Ten 8 9 9 8.5
Michigan State Big Ten 6 8.5 Under(W) 2 8.5 Under(W) 2 8.5 Under(W) 2
Minnesota Big Ten 6 5.5
Nebraska Big Ten 10 8.5 8.5 9 Under(L) 1
Northwestern Big Ten 9 6.5 Under(L) 2
Notre Dame Indep 12 8.5 Under(L) 3 8 Under(L) 2 7.5 Under(L) 1
California Pac-12 3 6.5 Under(W) 4 6.5 Under(W) 4 6.5 Under(W) 4
Oregon Pac-12 11 10 Over(W) 2 10.5 Over(W) 1 10.5 Over(W) 1
Oregon State Pac-12 9 4.5 Over(W) 3 4.5 Over(W) 3
Stanford Pac-12 10 7 Over(W) 4 7.5 Over(W) 3 7.5 Over(W) 3
Washington Pac-12 7 7.5 7 7
Washington State Pac-12 3 5.5 Under(W) 2 5.5 Under(W) 2
Arizona Pac-12 7 5.5 Under(L) 3
Arizona State Pac-12 7 5 Under(L) 3 5 Under(L) 3 5 Under(L) 3
Colorado Pac-12 1 3.5 Under(W) 1
UCLA Pac-12 9 6 Over(W) 4 6 Over(W) 4 6.5 Over(W) 3
Southern California Pac-12 7 10.5 Under(W) 3 10.5 Under(W) 3 10.5 Under(W) 3
Utah Pac-12 5 7.5 Over(L) 3
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Actual Wins Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Florida SEC 11 8 Over(W) 2 8 Over(W) 2 8 Over(W) 2
Georgia SEC 11 9.5 Under(L) 1 9.5 Under(L) 1 9.5 Under(L) 1
Kentucky SEC 2 5.5 Under(W) 4 5.5 Under(W) 4
Missouri SEC 5 7 7 7
South Carolina SEC 10 8.5 8.5 8.5
Tennessee SEC 5 7 Under(W) 2 7.5 Under(W) 3 7.5 Under(W) 3
Vanderbilt SEC 8 6.5 Over(W) 2 6.5 Over(W) 2
Alabama SEC 11 10.5 10.5 10.5
Arkansas SEC 4 8.5 Under(W) 2 8.5 Under(W) 2 8.5 Under(W) 2
Auburn SEC 3 7.5 Over(L) 2 7.5 Over(L) 2 7 Over(L) 3
Louisiana State SEC 10 10 Under 2 10 Under 2
Mississippi SEC 6 5.5 Under(L) 3 5.5 Under(L) 3
Mississippi State SEC 8 7.5 Over(W) 2 7.5 Over(W) 2
Texas A&M SEC 10 7 Under(L) 2 7 Under(L) 2 6.5 Under(L) 1
Cincinnati Big East 9 7.5 7.5 7.5
Connecticut Big East 5 5.5
Louisville Big East 10 9 Under(L) 2 9 Under(L) 2 8.5 Under(L) 1
Pittsburgh Big East 6 7 7 7
Rutgers Big East 9 7.5 Over(W) 2
South Florida Big East 3 7.5 7.5 8
Syracuse Big East 7 5.5 Under(L) 3 5.5 Under(L) 3
Temple Big East 4 4.5 Over(L) 3
Army Indep 2 5.5 Over(L) 1 5.5 Over(L) 1
Brigham Young Indep 7 8 Over(L) 3 8 Over(L) 3 8.5 Over(L) 2
Navy Indep 8 6.5 Over(W) 1 6.5 Over(W) 1
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Actual Wins Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
Air Force Mountain West 6 5.5 Over(W) 4
Boise State Mountain West 10 9.5 9.5 9.5
Colorado State Mountain West 4 6.5 Under(W) 3
Fresno State Mountain West 9 7.5 Under(L) 2
Hawaii Mountain West 3 4.5 Over(L) 3 4.5 Over(L) 3
Nevada Mountain West 7 7.5 Under(W) 4
New Mexico Mountain West 4 2.5
San Diego State Mountain West 9 5.5 Over(W) 2
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 2 4.5 Under(W) 3
Wyoming Mountain West 4 5.5 Over(L) 2
Central Florida C-USA 9 8.5 Under(L) 1 8.5 Under(L) 1 8.5 Under(L) 1
East Carolina C-USA 8 5.5 Over(W) 2
Houston C-USA 5 9.5 Under(W) 4
Marshall C-USA 5 6.5 Under(W) 2 6.5 Under(W) 2
Memphis C-USA 4 2.5 Under(L) 1
Rice C-USA 6 3.5 Over(W) 3
Southern Methodist C-USA 6 6.5 Under(W) 1
Southern Mississippi C-USA 0 8.5 Under(W) 1
Tulane C-USA 2 2.5 Over(L) 4
Tulsa C-USA 9 7.5 Over(W) 3
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 3 3.5 Under(W) 1
Texas-El Paso C-USA 3 4.5 Under(W) 1
TheGreek August 25th Bovada August 25th 5Dimes August 26th
Team League Actual Wins Line Pick Units Line Pick Units Line Pick Units
UMass MAC 1 1.5 Over(L) 1
Akron MAC 1 2.5 Under(W) 2
Ball State MAC 9 5.5 Under(L) 2
Bowling Green MAC 8 7.5
Buffalo MAC 4 4.5 Under(W) 2
Central Michigan MAC 6 4.5 Over(W) 4
Eastern Michigan MAC 2 5.5 Under(W) 2
Kent MAC 11 5.5
Miami (Ohio) MAC 4 5.5 Over(L) 3
Northern Illinois MAC 11 8.5
Ohio MAC 8 9.5 Under(W) 2
Toledo MAC 9 7.5
Western Michigan MAC 4 8.5 Under(W) 4
Arkansas State Sun Belt 9 8.5 Under(L) 2
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 8 7.5
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 8 4.5 Over(W) 1
Middle Tennessee State Sun Belt 8 4.5 Under(L) 2
North Texas Sun Belt 4 5.5 Under(W) 1
Troy Sun Belt 5 5.5
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 3 3.5
Florida International Sun Belt 3 7.5
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7 6.5 Over(W) 1
South Alabama Sun Belt 2 2.5
Idaho WAC 1 4.5
Louisiana Tech WAC 9 8.5 Over(W) 1
New Mexico State WAC 1 5.5 Under(W) 4
San Jose State WAC 10 5.5 Under(L) 1
Utah State WAC 10 7.5 Under(L) 1
Texas St WAC 4 4.5 Under(W) 1
UTSA WAC 8 2.5 Over(W) 2


There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:


1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.


2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.


3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.


2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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