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Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: Part One

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jan 12, 2013


Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: rating all 124 teams in college football after the end of the the 2012 season

Over the next week or two, I'll be releasing a number of articles containing data and analyses about the 2012 college football season. This article is the first of these, showing the ratings and rankings for all 124 teams in 1-A this year.


The format is straight-forward. Each team is listed in order from best (#1) to worst (#124), along with:

- league;
- team rating;
- result rank (1-A games only - this is how the team would rank if you ignore schedule strength and weigh all games equally [instead of giving more weight to more recent games]);
- schedule rank (1-A games only);
- and "true schedule rank" (including 1-AA opponents).


Please note that games against 1-AA opponents are not counted in the model calculations; however, since the games were still played, I thought it would be appropriate to show how each team's full schedule ranks out instead of only looking at the 1-A games counted by Compu-Picks.

Rank Team League Rating Result Rank * Schedule Rank * True Schedule Rank
1 Alabama SEC 0.98 1 5 4
2 Oregon Pac-12 0.90 2 9 12
3 Texas A&M SEC 0.83 5 2 11
4 Florida SEC 0.69 15 3 2
5 Georgia SEC 0.66 6 25 24
6 Kansas State Big 12 0.65 12 7 9
7 Notre Dame Indep 0.65 10 16 7
8 South Carolina SEC 0.63 13 13 15
9 Stanford Pac-12 0.57 19 14 5
10 Louisiana State SEC 0.57 22 8 10
11 Oklahoma Big 12 0.53 29 6 8
12 Oregon State Pac-12 0.53 35 4 3
13 Florida State ACC 0.53 3 48 56
14 Clemson ACC 0.50 11 41 42
15 Oklahoma State Big 12 0.47 25 23 23
16 Texas Big 12 0.42 38 15 6
17 Ohio State Big Ten 0.41 9 62 50
18 Utah State WAC 0.39 4 75 77
19 Wisconsin Big Ten 0.37 27 42 43
20 Arizona State Pac-12 0.35 30 37 38
21 Mississippi SEC 0.35 54 11 14
22 Brigham Young Indep 0.34 20 55 53
23 Southern California Pac-12 0.34 41 29 17
24 Baylor Big 12 0.33 48 24 25
25 Michigan Big Ten 0.32 37 38 32
26 Northwestern Big Ten 0.32 26 51 49
27 San Jose State WAC 0.31 14 72 72
28 Vanderbilt SEC 0.31 39 40 41
29 Cincinnati Big East 0.30 18 64 73
30 Texas Christian Big 12 0.29 60 20 20
31 Penn State Big Ten 0.27 24 63 55
32 UCLA Pac-12 0.27 42 35 29
33 Nebraska Big Ten 0.27 45 32 34
34 Boise State Mountain West 0.26 8 89 84
35 Mississippi State SEC 0.25 53 28 30
36 Texas Tech Big 12 0.23 57 30 31
37 Rutgers Big East 0.23 31 59 61
38 Arizona Pac-12 0.23 62 18 19
39 Louisville Big East 0.22 33 60 62
40 Fresno State Mountain West 0.22 21 71 71
41 Michigan State Big Ten 0.20 50 45 37
42 Louisiana Tech WAC 0.19 16 88 83
43 Missouri SEC 0.19 91 1 1
44 Georgia Tech ACC 0.19 61 39 39
45 Central Florida C-USA 0.19 17 95 91
46 Syracuse Big East 0.17 51 49 48
47 Northern Illinois MAC 0.17 7 119 116
48 Washington Pac-12 0.16 69 27 27
49 Pittsburgh Big East 0.16 47 50 60
50 Miami (Florida) ACC 0.15 64 34 36
51 Iowa State Big 12 0.15 74 17 18
52 Tulsa C-USA 0.15 32 74 74
53 West Virginia Big 12 0.15 65 31 33
54 North Carolina ACC 0.14 28 79 82
55 Arkansas State Sun Belt 0.14 34 76 78
56 Tennessee SEC 0.13 72 26 28
57 Kent MAC 0.13 23 94 98
58 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 0.07 40 83 88
59 San Diego State Mountain West 0.07 36 85 89
60 Arkansas SEC 0.04 94 10 13
61 Utah Pac-12 0.04 77 33 35
62 Toledo MAC 0.02 46 78 81
63 Virginia Tech ACC 0.02 70 44 44
64 Southern Methodist C-USA 0.00 59 68 67
65 Ball State MAC -0.01 52 84 76
66 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt -0.01 49 81 70
67 Middle Tennessee State Sun Belt -0.05 56 87 90
68 North Carolina State ACC -0.08 68 69 68
69 Nevada Mountain West -0.08 55 98 100
70 Western Kentucky Sun Belt -0.09 63 77 79
71 Bowling Green State MAC -0.09 43 115 115
72 Duke ACC -0.11 84 47 46
73 Purdue Big Ten -0.11 82 53 52
74 Auburn SEC -0.13 109 12 16
75 California Pac-12 -0.13 107 21 22
76 Ohio MAC -0.14 44 121 121
77 Minnesota Big Ten -0.15 83 57 58
78 Iowa Big Ten -0.16 88 58 59
79 Rice C-USA -0.17 58 116 112
80 Indiana Big Ten -0.17 81 65 64
81 Troy State Sun Belt -0.17 66 96 92
82 Navy Indep -0.18 71 82 87
83 East Carolina C-USA -0.22 67 107 107
84 Connecticut Big East -0.23 75 91 86
85 Maryland ACC -0.23 92 66 65
86 South Florida Big East -0.23 100 46 47
87 Virginia ACC -0.24 96 61 63
88 UTSA WAC -0.26 85 112 124
89 Washington State Pac-12 -0.28 110 36 40
90 Kansas Big 12 -0.28 119 19 21
91 Kentucky SEC -0.28 116 22 26
92 Wake Forest ACC -0.29 103 54 54
93 Temple Big East -0.30 98 67 66
94 Marshall C-USA -0.30 79 103 104
95 Houston C-USA -0.30 73 114 108
96 Wyoming Mountain West -0.31 87 92 96
97 Air Force Mountain West -0.33 76 111 113
98 North Texas Sun Belt -0.35 97 73 75
99 Central Michigan MAC -0.37 78 122 122
100 Boston College ACC -0.37 111 52 51
101 Florida Atlantic Sun Belt -0.37 105 70 69
102 Florida International Sun Belt -0.38 90 106 97
103 Memphis C-USA -0.39 86 117 117
104 Colorado State Mountain West -0.42 95 101 102
105 Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.43 102 86 80
106 New Mexico Mountain West -0.43 93 110 110
107 Buffalo MAC -0.44 99 90 95
108 Western Michigan MAC -0.44 80 124 123
109 Texas State WAC -0.45 89 109 111
110 Army Indep -0.50 101 105 106
111 Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West -0.50 104 93 99
112 Illinois Big Ten -0.51 120 56 57
113 Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.52 106 102 103
114 Alabama-Birmingham C-USA -0.55 108 100 101
115 Colorado Pac-12 -0.56 124 43 45
116 Eastern Michigan MAC -0.59 112 104 105
117 Tulane C-USA -0.61 114 99 94
118 Hawaii Mountain West -0.64 115 108 109
119 Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.67 118 97 93
120 Idaho WAC -0.68 121 80 85
121 South Alabama Sun Belt -0.70 113 113 114
122 Akron MAC -0.71 117 118 118
123 Umass MAC -0.72 122 123 120
124 New Mexico State WAC -0.89 123 120 119


There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:


1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.


2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.


2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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