Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: Part One

Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: rating all 124 teams in college football after the end of the the 2012 season

Over the next week or two, I'll be releasing a number of articles containing data and analyses about the 2012 college football season. This article is the first of these, showing the ratings and rankings for all 124 teams in 1-A this year.

The format is straight-forward. Each team is listed in order from best (#1) to worst (#124), along with:

- league;
- team rating;
- result rank (1-A games only - this is how the team would rank if you ignore schedule strength and weigh all games equally [instead of giving more weight to more recent games]);
- schedule rank (1-A games only);
- and "true schedule rank" (including 1-AA opponents).

Please note that games against 1-AA opponents are not counted in the model calculations; however, since the games were still played, I thought it would be appropriate to show how each team's full schedule ranks out instead of only looking at the 1-A games counted by Compu-Picks.

Rank	Team	League	Rating	Result Rank *	Schedule Rank *	True Schedule Rank
1	Alabama	SEC	0.98	1	5	4
2	Oregon	Pac-12	0.90	2	9	12
3	Texas A&M	SEC	0.83	5	2	11
4	Florida	SEC	0.69	15	3	2
5	Georgia	SEC	0.66	6	25	24
6	Kansas State	Big 12	0.65	12	7	9
7	Notre Dame	Indep	0.65	10	16	7
8	South Carolina	SEC	0.63	13	13	15
9	Stanford	Pac-12	0.57	19	14	5
10	Louisiana State	SEC	0.57	22	8	10
11	Oklahoma	Big 12	0.53	29	6	8
12	Oregon State	Pac-12	0.53	35	4	3
13	Florida State	ACC	0.53	3	48	56
14	Clemson	ACC	0.50	11	41	42
15	Oklahoma State	Big 12	0.47	25	23	23
16	Texas	Big 12	0.42	38	15	6
17	Ohio State	Big Ten	0.41	9	62	50
18	Utah State	WAC	0.39	4	75	77
19	Wisconsin	Big Ten	0.37	27	42	43
20	Arizona State	Pac-12	0.35	30	37	38
21	Mississippi	SEC	0.35	54	11	14
22	Brigham Young	Indep	0.34	20	55	53
23	Southern California	Pac-12	0.34	41	29	17
24	Baylor	Big 12	0.33	48	24	25
25	Michigan	Big Ten	0.32	37	38	32
26	Northwestern	Big Ten	0.32	26	51	49
27	San Jose State	WAC	0.31	14	72	72
28	Vanderbilt	SEC	0.31	39	40	41
29	Cincinnati	Big East	0.30	18	64	73
30	Texas Christian	Big 12	0.29	60	20	20
31	Penn State	Big Ten	0.27	24	63	55
32	UCLA	Pac-12	0.27	42	35	29
33	Nebraska	Big Ten	0.27	45	32	34
34	Boise State	Mountain West	0.26	8	89	84
35	Mississippi State	SEC	0.25	53	28	30
36	Texas Tech	Big 12	0.23	57	30	31
37	Rutgers	Big East	0.23	31	59	61
38	Arizona	Pac-12	0.23	62	18	19
39	Louisville	Big East	0.22	33	60	62
40	Fresno State	Mountain West	0.22	21	71	71
41	Michigan State	Big Ten	0.20	50	45	37
42	Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.19	16	88	83
43	Missouri	SEC	0.19	91	1	1
44	Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	61	39	39
45	Central Florida	C-USA	0.19	17	95	91
46	Syracuse	Big East	0.17	51	49	48
47	Northern Illinois	MAC	0.17	7	119	116
48	Washington	Pac-12	0.16	69	27	27
49	Pittsburgh	Big East	0.16	47	50	60
50	Miami (Florida)	ACC	0.15	64	34	36
51	Iowa State	Big 12	0.15	74	17	18
52	Tulsa	C-USA	0.15	32	74	74
53	West Virginia	Big 12	0.15	65	31	33
54	North Carolina	ACC	0.14	28	79	82
55	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	0.14	34	76	78
56	Tennessee	SEC	0.13	72	26	28
57	Kent	MAC	0.13	23	94	98
58	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	0.07	40	83	88
59	San Diego State	Mountain West	0.07	36	85	89
60	Arkansas	SEC	0.04	94	10	13
61	Utah	Pac-12	0.04	77	33	35
62	Toledo	MAC	0.02	46	78	81
63	Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	70	44	44
64	Southern Methodist	C-USA	0.00	59	68	67
65	Ball State	MAC	-0.01	52	84	76
66	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-0.01	49	81	70
67	Middle Tennessee State	Sun Belt	-0.05	56	87	90
68	North Carolina State	ACC	-0.08	68	69	68
69	Nevada	Mountain West	-0.08	55	98	100
70	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	-0.09	63	77	79
71	Bowling Green State	MAC	-0.09	43	115	115
72	Duke	ACC	-0.11	84	47	46
73	Purdue	Big Ten	-0.11	82	53	52
74	Auburn	SEC	-0.13	109	12	16
75	California	Pac-12	-0.13	107	21	22
76	Ohio	MAC	-0.14	44	121	121
77	Minnesota	Big Ten	-0.15	83	57	58
78	Iowa	Big Ten	-0.16	88	58	59
79	Rice	C-USA	-0.17	58	116	112
80	Indiana	Big Ten	-0.17	81	65	64
81	Troy State	Sun Belt	-0.17	66	96	92
82	Navy	Indep	-0.18	71	82	87
83	East Carolina	C-USA	-0.22	67	107	107
84	Connecticut	Big East	-0.23	75	91	86
85	Maryland	ACC	-0.23	92	66	65
86	South Florida	Big East	-0.23	100	46	47
87	Virginia	ACC	-0.24	96	61	63
88	UTSA	WAC	-0.26	85	112	124
89	Washington State	Pac-12	-0.28	110	36	40
90	Kansas	Big 12	-0.28	119	19	21
91	Kentucky	SEC	-0.28	116	22	26
92	Wake Forest	ACC	-0.29	103	54	54
93	Temple	Big East	-0.30	98	67	66
94	Marshall	C-USA	-0.30	79	103	104
95	Houston	C-USA	-0.30	73	114	108
96	Wyoming	Mountain West	-0.31	87	92	96
97	Air Force	Mountain West	-0.33	76	111	113
98	North Texas	Sun Belt	-0.35	97	73	75
99	Central Michigan	MAC	-0.37	78	122	122
100	Boston College	ACC	-0.37	111	52	51
101	Florida Atlantic	Sun Belt	-0.37	105	70	69
102	Florida International	Sun Belt	-0.38	90	106	97
103	Memphis	C-USA	-0.39	86	117	117
104	Colorado State	Mountain West	-0.42	95	101	102
105	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	-0.43	102	86	80
106	New Mexico	Mountain West	-0.43	93	110	110
107	Buffalo	MAC	-0.44	99	90	95
108	Western Michigan	MAC	-0.44	80	124	123
109	Texas State	WAC	-0.45	89	109	111
110	Army	Indep	-0.50	101	105	106
111	Nevada-Las Vegas	Mountain West	-0.50	104	93	99
112	Illinois	Big Ten	-0.51	120	56	57
113	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	-0.52	106	102	103
114	Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	-0.55	108	100	101
115	Colorado	Pac-12	-0.56	124	43	45
116	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-0.59	112	104	105
117	Tulane	C-USA	-0.61	114	99	94
118	Hawaii	Mountain West	-0.64	115	108	109
119	Southern Mississippi	C-USA	-0.67	118	97	93
120	Idaho	WAC	-0.68	121	80	85
121	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-0.70	113	113	114
122	Akron	MAC	-0.71	117	118	118
123	Umass	MAC	-0.72	122	123	120
124	New Mexico State	WAC	-0.89	123	120	119

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

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