Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: Part Two

Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: rating the schedule strength of all 124 teams in college football after the end of the the 2012 season

Over the offseason, I'll be releasing a number of articles containing data and analyses about the 2012 college football season. This article is the second of these, showing the schedule strength ranking for all 124 teams in 1-A this year and comparing it with a number of other publicly available sources.

I have sorted each 1-A team based on the "true schedule rank" (calculated to include the value of 1-AA opponents) as displayed in the ratings table I posted recently. I have also listed the following other sources (as well as an aggrete average of the available schedule ranks):

- Sagarin (adjusted to rank the 124 1-A teams 1st through 124th instead of combined with the AA's);
- FEI;
- Phil Steele (pre-bowl);
- Colley Matrix;
- NCAA;

Please note that games against 1-AA opponents are not counted in the model calculations; however, since the games were still played, I thought it would be appropriate to show how each team's full schedule ranks out instead of only looking at the 1-A games counted by Compu-Picks.

In addition, I have highlighted specific schedule ranks that deviate materially from the consensus: red indicates a difference of more than 40 places, orange more than 25 places, and yellow more than 15.

		Schedule Strength Rank
Team	League	Compu-Picks (True Rank)	Sagarin	FEI	Phil Steele	Colley	NCAA	Average
Missouri	SEC	1	1	1	2	1	2	1.4
Florida	SEC	2	4	11	4	2	1	4.4
Oregon State	Pac-12	3	13	17	25	22	20	15.6
Alabama	SEC	4	19	31	37	19	19	22
Stanford	Pac-12	5	22	8	6	7	10	10.2
Texas	Big 12	6	12	14	24	28	54.5	22.1
Notre Dame	Indep	7	21	10	10	8	4	10.4
Oklahoma	Big 12	8	5	6	16	15	15.5	10.1
Kansas State	Big 12	9	14	5	18	26	26	14.4
Louisiana State	SEC	10	15	4	30	12	13	14.4
Texas A&M	SEC	11	6	19	8	14	3	9.4
Oregon	Pac-12	12	38	35	48	34	15.5	29.7
Arkansas	SEC	13	9	12	14	5	6.5	10.9
Mississippi	SEC	14	18	2	7	20	27	13.6
South Carolina	SEC	15	23	34	19	13	21	22.4
Auburn	SEC	16	2	7	13	6	6.5	8.9
Southern California	Pac-12	17	17	24	20	17	35	22.6
Iowa State	Big 12	18	11	29	11	18	23	18.4
Arizona	Pac-12	19	32	15	12	24	11.5	17.9
Texas Christian	Big 12	20	16	26	29	32	48	27.8
Kansas	Big 12	21	3	9	1	4	18	10.4
California	Pac-12	22	10	22	5	10	9	13.6
Oklahoma State	Big 12	23	28	28	17	23	28	24.8
Georgia	SEC	24	27	25	43	25	43	32.4
Baylor	Big 12	25	7	27	3	16	25	17.4
Kentucky	SEC	26	8	44	9	3	8	19
Washington	Pac-12	27	34	16	22	31	24	24.6
Tennessee	SEC	28	25	20	31	30	29	26.6
UCLA	Pac-12	29	33	36	34	29	44	35.2
Mississippi State	SEC	30	49	13	54	48	63	41.8
Texas Tech	Big 12	31	36	21	35	47	69	38.4
		Schedule Strength Rank
Team	League	Compu-Picks (True Rank)	Sagarin	FEI	Phil Steele	Colley	NCAA	Average
Michigan	Big Ten	32	24	3	33	9	14	21.2
West Virginia	Big 12	33	29	23	23	35	56	32.8
Nebraska	Big Ten	34	20	18	41	21	5	23.6
Utah	Pac-12	35	41	50	40	51	78	48.8
Miami (Florida)	ACC	36	43	42	21	45	49	38.2
Michigan State	Big Ten	37	26	37	32	11	11.5	28.7
Arizona State	Pac-12	38	52	43	50	58	98	56.2
Georgia Tech	ACC	39	44	45	44	41	32	40.8
Washington State	Pac-12	40	31	30	26	39	71.5	39.7
Vanderbilt	SEC	41	42	41	62	42	66.5	50.5
Clemson	ACC	42	61	69	56	50	46.5	54.9
Wisconsin	Big Ten	43	30	32	49	27	17	34.2
Virginia Tech	ACC	44	47	62	45	49	36	46.8
Colorado	Pac-12	45	35	33	15	33	40.5	33.7
Duke	ACC	46	51	47	39	43	30	42.6
South Florida	Big East	47	46	71	28	40	22	42.8
Syracuse	Big East	48	45	72	46	53	51	52.4
Northwestern	Big Ten	49	50	58	59	60	75	58.2
Ohio State	Big Ten	50	60	61	63	56	74	61.6
Boston College	ACC	51	40	55	27	38	42	43
Purdue	Big Ten	52	48	40	52	44	66.5	51.7
Brigham Young	Indep	53	63	49	76	67	46.5	57.5
Wake Forest	ACC	54	59	65	42	54	61	56.2
Penn State	Big Ten	55	58	75	61	46	58.5	61.5
Florida State	ACC	56	66	80	58	66	52	62.4
Illinois	Big Ten	57	37	38	38	36	39	41.8
Minnesota	Big Ten	58	54	57	55	61	89	62.6
Iowa	Big Ten	59	39	63	47	37	37	49
Pittsburgh	Big East	60	57	52	60	62	38	53.4
Rutgers	Big East	61	72	87	88	90	85	78.6
Louisville	Big East	62	70	56	93	88	93	74.8
		Schedule Strength Rank
Team	League	Compu-Picks (True Rank)	Sagarin	FEI	Phil Steele	Colley	NCAA	Average
Virginia	ACC	63	53	90	36	55	73	63
Indiana	Big Ten	64	56	67	53	52	66.5	61.3
Maryland	ACC	65	62	88	51	70	91	71.4
Temple	Big East	66	64	76	57	71	79	68.4
Southern Methodist	C-USA	67	74	51	79	89	80	70.2
North Carolina State	ACC	68	65	86	68	72	99	77.2
Florida Atlantic	Sun Belt	69	82	39	66	64	57	62.6
Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	70	89	113	110	93	115	99.4
Fresno State	Mountain West	71	111	46	81	108	60	73.8
San Jose State	WAC	72	86	77	83	81	31	69.8
Cincinnati	Big East	73	80	98	84	83	62	79.4
Tulsa	C-USA	74	84	105	99	101	86	89.6
North Texas	Sun Belt	75	79	54	74	68	53	67
Ball State	MAC	76	73	94	80	69	54.5	75.5
Utah State	WAC	77	96	73	115	114	88	89.8
Arkansas State	Sun Belt	78	97	48	92	76	34	69.8
Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	79	115	53	102	99	94	88.6
Texas-El Paso	C-USA	80	67	68	70	79	101	77.2
Toledo	MAC	81	91	91	91	87	58.5	82.5
North Carolina	ACC	82	77	111	90	84	96	91.2
Louisiana Tech	WAC	83	105	59	118	110	109	94.8
Boise State	Mountain West	84	113	99	113	119	114	104.6
Idaho	WAC	85	55	60	64	59	45	61.8
Connecticut	Big East	86	69	78	89	85	110	86.4
Navy	Indep	87	87	84	101	78	64	84.6
Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	88	116	66	82	96	97	89.8
San Diego State	Mountain West	89	107	92	97	112	76	92.2
Middle Tennessee State	Sun Belt	90	104	117	100	116	108	103.8
Central Florida	C-USA	91	90	79	103	92	95	91.6
Troy State	Sun Belt	92	98	124	107	91	111	106.4
Southern Mississippi	C-USA	93	68	89	71	63	66.5	77.5
		Schedule Strength Rank
Team	League	Compu-Picks (True Rank)	Sagarin	FEI	Phil Steele	Colley	NCAA	Average
Tulane	C-USA	94	76	116	73	73	81	88
Buffalo	MAC	95	83	82	69	77	50	75.8
Wyoming	Mountain West	96	100	97	72	107	82	89.4
Florida International	Sun Belt	97	81	114	87	74	84	92.6
Kent	MAC	98	106	107	114	109	92	103.4
Nevada-Las Vegas	Mountain West	99	101	85	85	106	90	92
Nevada	Mountain West	100	117	119	119	120	118	114.6
Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	101	93	64	78	80	71.5	81.5
Colorado State	Mountain West	102	85	93	77	100	83	88
Miami (Ohio)	MAC	103	75	70	67	65	33	69.6
Marshall	C-USA	104	103	121	98	105	87	102.6
Eastern Michigan	MAC	105	71	106	65	57	40.5	77.5
Army	Indep	106	95	109	75	75	70	91
East Carolina	C-USA	107	110	81	105	113	103	101.2
Houston	C-USA	108	102	115	109	95	102	107.2
Hawaii	Mountain West	109	112	83	94	115	106	100.8
New Mexico	Mountain West	110	121	96	112	121	116	111
Texas State	WAC	111	94	100	106	97		102.75
Rice	C-USA	112	108	108	116	117	119	112.6
Air Force	Mountain West	113	123	101	120	122	112.5	113.9
South Alabama	Sun Belt	114	114	120	111	94		114.75
Bowling Green State	MAC	115	120	74	121	102	100	106
Northern Illinois	MAC	116	118	103	124	118	117	115.6
Memphis	C-USA	117	99	123	96	104	104.5	107.9
Akron	MAC	118	92	112	95	86	77	98.8
New Mexico State	WAC	119	88	102	104	98	107	104
Umass	MAC	120	78	95	86	82		94.75
Ohio	MAC	121	124	110	123	123	120	119.6
Central Michigan	MAC	122	119	104	117	111	112.5	114.9
Western Michigan	MAC	123	109	122	108	103	104.5	113.3
UTSA	WAC	124	122	118	122	124		121.5
Correlation to Average		0.957	0.966	0.925	0.961	0.965	0.903

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

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