Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: Part Two

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jan 22, 2013


Compu-Picks Post 2012 Analysis: rating the schedule strength of all 124 teams in college football after the end of the the 2012 season

Over the offseason, I'll be releasing a number of articles containing data and analyses about the 2012 college football season. This article is the second of these, showing the schedule strength ranking for all 124 teams in 1-A this year and comparing it with a number of other publicly available sources.


I have sorted each 1-A team based on the "true schedule rank" (calculated to include the value of 1-AA opponents) as displayed in the ratings table I posted recently. I have also listed the following other sources (as well as an aggrete average of the available schedule ranks):

- Sagarin (adjusted to rank the 124 1-A teams 1st through 124th instead of combined with the AA's);
- FEI;
- Phil Steele (pre-bowl);
- Colley Matrix;
- NCAA;


Please note that games against 1-AA opponents are not counted in the model calculations; however, since the games were still played, I thought it would be appropriate to show how each team's full schedule ranks out instead of only looking at the 1-A games counted by Compu-Picks.


In addition, I have highlighted specific schedule ranks that deviate materially from the consensus: red indicates a difference of more than 40 places, orange more than 25 places, and yellow more than 15.

Schedule Strength Rank
Team League Compu-Picks (True Rank) Sagarin FEI Phil Steele Colley NCAA Average
Missouri SEC 1 1 1 2 1 2 1.4
Florida SEC 2 4 11 4 2 1 4.4
Oregon State Pac-12 3 13 17 25 22 20 15.6
Alabama SEC 4 19 31 37 19 19 22
Stanford Pac-12 5 22 8 6 7 10 10.2
Texas Big 12 6 12 14 24 28 54.5 22.1
Notre Dame Indep 7 21 10 10 8 4 10.4
Oklahoma Big 12 8 5 6 16 15 15.5 10.1
Kansas State Big 12 9 14 5 18 26 26 14.4
Louisiana State SEC 10 15 4 30 12 13 14.4
Texas A&M SEC 11 6 19 8 14 3 9.4
Oregon Pac-12 12 38 35 48 34 15.5 29.7
Arkansas SEC 13 9 12 14 5 6.5 10.9
Mississippi SEC 14 18 2 7 20 27 13.6
South Carolina SEC 15 23 34 19 13 21 22.4
Auburn SEC 16 2 7 13 6 6.5 8.9
Southern California Pac-12 17 17 24 20 17 35 22.6
Iowa State Big 12 18 11 29 11 18 23 18.4
Arizona Pac-12 19 32 15 12 24 11.5 17.9
Texas Christian Big 12 20 16 26 29 32 48 27.8
Kansas Big 12 21 3 9 1 4 18 10.4
California Pac-12 22 10 22 5 10 9 13.6
Oklahoma State Big 12 23 28 28 17 23 28 24.8
Georgia SEC 24 27 25 43 25 43 32.4
Baylor Big 12 25 7 27 3 16 25 17.4
Kentucky SEC 26 8 44 9 3 8 19
Washington Pac-12 27 34 16 22 31 24 24.6
Tennessee SEC 28 25 20 31 30 29 26.6
UCLA Pac-12 29 33 36 34 29 44 35.2
Mississippi State SEC 30 49 13 54 48 63 41.8
Texas Tech Big 12 31 36 21 35 47 69 38.4
Schedule Strength Rank
Team League Compu-Picks (True Rank) Sagarin FEI Phil Steele Colley NCAA Average
Michigan Big Ten 32 24 3 33 9 14 21.2
West Virginia Big 12 33 29 23 23 35 56 32.8
Nebraska Big Ten 34 20 18 41 21 5 23.6
Utah Pac-12 35 41 50 40 51 78 48.8
Miami (Florida) ACC 36 43 42 21 45 49 38.2
Michigan State Big Ten 37 26 37 32 11 11.5 28.7
Arizona State Pac-12 38 52 43 50 58 98 56.2
Georgia Tech ACC 39 44 45 44 41 32 40.8
Washington State Pac-12 40 31 30 26 39 71.5 39.7
Vanderbilt SEC 41 42 41 62 42 66.5 50.5
Clemson ACC 42 61 69 56 50 46.5 54.9
Wisconsin Big Ten 43 30 32 49 27 17 34.2
Virginia Tech ACC 44 47 62 45 49 36 46.8
Colorado Pac-12 45 35 33 15 33 40.5 33.7
Duke ACC 46 51 47 39 43 30 42.6
South Florida Big East 47 46 71 28 40 22 42.8
Syracuse Big East 48 45 72 46 53 51 52.4
Northwestern Big Ten 49 50 58 59 60 75 58.2
Ohio State Big Ten 50 60 61 63 56 74 61.6
Boston College ACC 51 40 55 27 38 42 43
Purdue Big Ten 52 48 40 52 44 66.5 51.7
Brigham Young Indep 53 63 49 76 67 46.5 57.5
Wake Forest ACC 54 59 65 42 54 61 56.2
Penn State Big Ten 55 58 75 61 46 58.5 61.5
Florida State ACC 56 66 80 58 66 52 62.4
Illinois Big Ten 57 37 38 38 36 39 41.8
Minnesota Big Ten 58 54 57 55 61 89 62.6
Iowa Big Ten 59 39 63 47 37 37 49
Pittsburgh Big East 60 57 52 60 62 38 53.4
Rutgers Big East 61 72 87 88 90 85 78.6
Louisville Big East 62 70 56 93 88 93 74.8
Schedule Strength Rank
Team League Compu-Picks (True Rank) Sagarin FEI Phil Steele Colley NCAA Average
Virginia ACC 63 53 90 36 55 73 63
Indiana Big Ten 64 56 67 53 52 66.5 61.3
Maryland ACC 65 62 88 51 70 91 71.4
Temple Big East 66 64 76 57 71 79 68.4
Southern Methodist C-USA 67 74 51 79 89 80 70.2
North Carolina State ACC 68 65 86 68 72 99 77.2
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 69 82 39 66 64 57 62.6
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 70 89 113 110 93 115 99.4
Fresno State Mountain West 71 111 46 81 108 60 73.8
San Jose State WAC 72 86 77 83 81 31 69.8
Cincinnati Big East 73 80 98 84 83 62 79.4
Tulsa C-USA 74 84 105 99 101 86 89.6
North Texas Sun Belt 75 79 54 74 68 53 67
Ball State MAC 76 73 94 80 69 54.5 75.5
Utah State WAC 77 96 73 115 114 88 89.8
Arkansas State Sun Belt 78 97 48 92 76 34 69.8
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 79 115 53 102 99 94 88.6
Texas-El Paso C-USA 80 67 68 70 79 101 77.2
Toledo MAC 81 91 91 91 87 58.5 82.5
North Carolina ACC 82 77 111 90 84 96 91.2
Louisiana Tech WAC 83 105 59 118 110 109 94.8
Boise State Mountain West 84 113 99 113 119 114 104.6
Idaho WAC 85 55 60 64 59 45 61.8
Connecticut Big East 86 69 78 89 85 110 86.4
Navy Indep 87 87 84 101 78 64 84.6
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 88 116 66 82 96 97 89.8
San Diego State Mountain West 89 107 92 97 112 76 92.2
Middle Tennessee State Sun Belt 90 104 117 100 116 108 103.8
Central Florida C-USA 91 90 79 103 92 95 91.6
Troy State Sun Belt 92 98 124 107 91 111 106.4
Southern Mississippi C-USA 93 68 89 71 63 66.5 77.5
Schedule Strength Rank
Team League Compu-Picks (True Rank) Sagarin FEI Phil Steele Colley NCAA Average
Tulane C-USA 94 76 116 73 73 81 88
Buffalo MAC 95 83 82 69 77 50 75.8
Wyoming Mountain West 96 100 97 72 107 82 89.4
Florida International Sun Belt 97 81 114 87 74 84 92.6
Kent MAC 98 106 107 114 109 92 103.4
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 99 101 85 85 106 90 92
Nevada Mountain West 100 117 119 119 120 118 114.6
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 101 93 64 78 80 71.5 81.5
Colorado State Mountain West 102 85 93 77 100 83 88
Miami (Ohio) MAC 103 75 70 67 65 33 69.6
Marshall C-USA 104 103 121 98 105 87 102.6
Eastern Michigan MAC 105 71 106 65 57 40.5 77.5
Army Indep 106 95 109 75 75 70 91
East Carolina C-USA 107 110 81 105 113 103 101.2
Houston C-USA 108 102 115 109 95 102 107.2
Hawaii Mountain West 109 112 83 94 115 106 100.8
New Mexico Mountain West 110 121 96 112 121 116 111
Texas State WAC 111 94 100 106 97 102.75
Rice C-USA 112 108 108 116 117 119 112.6
Air Force Mountain West 113 123 101 120 122 112.5 113.9
South Alabama Sun Belt 114 114 120 111 94 114.75
Bowling Green State MAC 115 120 74 121 102 100 106
Northern Illinois MAC 116 118 103 124 118 117 115.6
Memphis C-USA 117 99 123 96 104 104.5 107.9
Akron MAC 118 92 112 95 86 77 98.8
New Mexico State WAC 119 88 102 104 98 107 104
Umass MAC 120 78 95 86 82 94.75
Ohio MAC 121 124 110 123 123 120 119.6
Central Michigan MAC 122 119 104 117 111 112.5 114.9
Western Michigan MAC 123 109 122 108 103 104.5 113.3
UTSA WAC 124 122 118 122 124 121.5
Correlation to Average 0.957 0.966 0.925 0.961 0.965 0.903


There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:


1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.


2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.


2012 Compu-Picks Blog

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