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Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: Week 6_1

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Oct 8, 2013


Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: rating the top and bottom teams in college football after week six

Article originally appeared at Compu-Picks.com.

As of the end of the games on Saturday October 5th (including SJ St - Hawaii), these are the Compu-Picks top and bottom 15. Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. Also, please note that the model does not consider games against AA teams; the * marks for result and schedule rankings designate that these are results and schedules solely counting games against fellow 1-A programs.

The last column on the table displays preseason rank. At this stage, preseason projections are still given some weight, though the amount of influence continues to decline as the season progresses.

Rank AP Rank Team League Rating Result Rank * Schedule Rank * Preseason Rank
1 2 Oregon Pac-12 0.91 1 36 4
2 6 Florida State ACC 0.85 3 35 7
3 1 Alabama SEC 0.81 5 28 1
4 3 Clemson ACC 0.72 8 22 17
5 15 Baylor Big 12 0.65 2 95 44
6 8 Louisville American 0.64 4 90 22
7 7 Georgia SEC 0.63 39 2 5
8 16 Washington Pac-12 0.62 21 10 20
9 10 Louisiana State SEC 0.60 14 33 12
10 17 Florida SEC 0.58 18 20 16
11 5 Stanford Pac-12 0.58 13 34 27
12 4 Ohio State Big Ten 0.57 12 46 2
13 13 Miami (Florida) ACC 0.56 10 39 37
14 25 Missouri SEC 0.53 9 62 23
15 9 Texas A&M SEC 0.51 24 24 8
112 . Alabama-Birmingham C-USA -0.51 110 69 105
113 . Florida International C-USA -0.52 121 26 116
114 . New Mexico Mountain West -0.57 76 125 111
115 . Purdue Big Ten -0.59 119 45 109
116 . Eastern Michigan MAC -0.60 124 30 119
117 . Louisiana Tech C-USA -0.62 96 121 114
118 . Central Michigan MAC -0.63 105 113 113
119 . Western Michigan MAC -0.63 120 61 100
120 . Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.64 114 84 115
121 . Georgia St Sun Belt -0.66 126 14 126
122 . Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.71 84 126 117
123 . Idaho Indep -0.72 117 94 125
124 . Umass MAC -0.78 125 65 124
125 . Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.82 122 105 118
126 . New Mexico State Indep -0.98 123 118 121

Some thoughts on the list:

1) One consistent theme that pops up when I've done these analyses the past few years is that Compu-Picks gives a lot more weight to schedule strength and dominance than does the BCS, and a lot less weight to simple W/L record and head to head. The same thing is likely to be true this time around.

2) As usual, I'm only posting the Compu-Picks ratings for the very top and bottom teams, though this year I'm starting with top / bottom 15 instead of a tighter table. This list will slowly expand as the season goes on. The reason I do this is that the teams at the very top and very bottom have to some degree separated themselves by now, while the teams on the next tiers can largely be jumbled together.

3) Baylor is an interesting case. The Bears have been slow to rise in the polls (though a number of computers, especially those that consider stats and/or margin, have been high on the Bears), in large part because their schedule has been exceptionally poor. That said, they have displayed not just an extreme level of dominance, but at least so far a consistently extreme level of dominance. It's also interesting to compare them to Louisville, another team who has been dominant against a poor schedule.

For the human polls, the difference seems to mainly come from the preseason rankings, since many were high on Louisville and few were high on Baylor. As the season goes on, human preseason bias tends to diminish and by mid to late November, is basically gone. But for now that bias seems to be alive and well.

4) On the flip side, Stanford is interesting as well. Numerically, Stanford's dominance and schedule strength seem to put them right on par with Miami (tougher schedule, not quite as dominant). As with Baylor, some of Stanford's rating, at least so far, seems to be driven by preseason expectations.

That said, to date Stanford has looked like a better team than Miami, at least using the eye test (Miami's win over Florida was hideously ugly and was more luck-driven than Stanford's comparably close win over Washington).

5) Speaking of Washington, the Huskies are still rated above Stanford, despite the Cardinal's head to head win. Why? Because a 3-point win by a home team is rated as pretty close to a neutral site tie, and "pretty close to a neutral site tie" simply won't swing the power ratings unless the teams are already really close. U-Dub has beat up a quality Arizona team, obliterated a Boise team that's at least decent, and won by ten on the road against an Illinois team that seems to have a pulse so far. That's a pretty solid resume for this stage in the season.

6) Florida State just appears to be badly underrated right now. They've been exceptionally dominant against a legitimately decent schedule and can make an utterly reasonable case that they've been playing better so far than everyone's preseason #1 Alabama, and all the more so Clemson, Ohio St and Stanford.

7) Keep an eye out for Missouri. The Tigers have been very solid to date, and now travel to a Georgia team decimated by injuries. If Mizzou can spring the upset, they become the new SEC East favorites, and it might be very hard to knock them off their perch.

8) A few of teams who have gotten a wee bit too much credit for their gaudy records against not much resistance are Ohio St, Oklahoma and UCLA. Ohio St has been the best of the group, but not so good as to deserve a top five slot. And the other two have been pretty dominant, but simply haven't played schedules decent enough to test them. By performance to date, they're both Texas Tech with better reputations, which is why they sandwich the Red Raiders right now.

I am also adding a table showing the full list of 126 teams, sorted by rank. At this point in the season, many of the underlying ratings are not credible, so while you may find the numbers here interesting, I strongly recommend against putting much weight into the rankings of the teams not shown in greater detail at the top of the page.

Rank Team League
1 Oregon Pac-12
2 Florida State ACC
3 Alabama SEC
4 Clemson ACC
5 Baylor Big 12
6 Louisville American
7 Georgia SEC
8 Washington Pac-12
9 Louisiana State SEC
10 Florida SEC
11 Stanford Pac-12
12 Ohio State Big Ten
13 Miami (Florida) ACC
14 Missouri SEC
15 Texas A&M SEC
16 Oklahoma Big 12
17 Texas Tech Big 12
18 UCLA Pac-12
19 South Carolina SEC
20 Maryland ACC
21 Virginia Tech ACC
22 Central Florida American
23 Arizona Pac-12
24 Tennessee SEC
25 Texas Christian Big 12
26 Mississippi SEC
27 Auburn SEC
28 Arizona State Pac-12
29 Wisconsin Big Ten
30 Oregon State Pac-12
31 Michigan Big Ten
32 Georgia Tech ACC
33 Oklahoma State Big 12
34 East Carolina C-USA
35 Indiana Big Ten
36 Utah Pac-12
37 Brigham Young Indep
38 Northwestern Big Ten
39 Ball State MAC
40 Washington State Pac-12
41 Southern California Pac-12
42 Ohio MAC
43 Penn State Big Ten
44 Nebraska Big Ten
45 Michigan State Big Ten
46 Notre Dame Indep
47 Houston American
48 Western Kentucky Sun Belt
49 Utah State Mountain West
50 Northern Illinois MAC
51 Iowa Big Ten
52 Boise State Mountain West
53 Marshall C-USA
54 Pittsburgh ACC
55 Navy Indep
56 Rutgers American
57 Kansas State Big 12
58 Boston College ACC
59 Arkansas SEC
60 West Virginia Big 12
61 Texas Big 12
62 Fresno State Mountain West
63 Vanderbilt SEC
64 Toledo MAC
65 South Alabama Sun Belt
66 Buffalo MAC
67 Illinois Big Ten
68 North Texas C-USA
69 Bowling Green State MAC
70 Kentucky SEC
71 Mississippi State SEC
72 North Carolina ACC
73 Iowa State Big 12
74 Syracuse ACC
75 North Carolina State ACC
76 Rice C-USA
77 Duke ACC
78 Wake Forest ACC
79 Wyoming Mountain West
80 Tulane C-USA
81 Florida Atlantic C-USA
82 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt
83 Colorado Pac-12
84 Nevada Mountain West
85 San Diego State Mountain West
86 Virginia ACC
87 Texas State Sun Belt
88 Minnesota Big Ten
89 Memphis American
90 California Pac-12
91 Southern Methodist American
92 Connecticut American
93 Cincinnati American
94 Middle Tennessee State C-USA
95 Old Dominion Indep
96 San Jose State Mountain West
97 Army Indep
98 UTSA C-USA
99 Colorado State Mountain West
100 Arkansas State Sun Belt
101 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt
102 South Florida American
103 Tulsa C-USA
104 Kent MAC
105 Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West
106 Kansas Big 12
107 Temple American
108 Hawaii Mountain West
109 Troy State Sun Belt
110 Akron MAC
111 Air Force Mountain West
112 Alabama-Birmingham C-USA
113 Florida International C-USA
114 New Mexico Mountain West
115 Purdue Big Ten
116 Eastern Michigan MAC
117 Louisiana Tech C-USA
118 Central Michigan MAC
119 Western Michigan MAC
120 Southern Mississippi C-USA
121 Georgia St Sun Belt
122 Texas-El Paso C-USA
123 Idaho Indep
124 Umass MAC
125 Miami (Ohio) MAC
126 New Mexico State Indep
This article is subject to the Compu-Picks terms of use

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