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Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: Week 07_01

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Oct 14, 2013


Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: rating the top and bottom teams in college football after week seven

Article originally appeared at Compu-Picks.com.

As of the end of the games on Saturday October 12th, these are the Compu-Picks top 20 and and bottom 15. Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. Also, please note that the model does not consider games against AA teams; the * marks for result and schedule rankings designate that these are results and schedules solely counting games against fellow 1-A programs.

The last column on the table displays preseason rank. At this stage, preseason projections are still given some weight, though the amount of influence continues to decline as the season progresses.

Since this week the actual BCS rankings are not out, I have used for comparison the simulated BCS standings from BCSguru.com.

Rank BCS Rank Vegas Rank Team League Rating Result Rank * Schedule Rank * Preseason Rank
1 2 1.5 Oregon Pac-12 0.99 1 13 4
2 4 3 Florida State ACC 0.86 2 31 7
3 1 1.5 Alabama SEC 0.83 4 32 1
4 3 14 Clemson ACC 0.68 9 26 17
5 10 6 Baylor Big 12 0.68 3 56 44
6 13 25.5 Missouri SEC 0.67 10 23 23
7 6 4 Louisiana State SEC 0.64 12 24 12
8 5 9 Ohio State Big Ten 0.59 11 37 2
9 14 NR Miami (Florida) ACC 0.57 8 40 37
10 8 15 UCLA Pac-12 0.56 6 81 31
11 15 9 Georgia SEC 0.56 51 1 5
12 24 25.5 Washington Pac-12 0.56 40 4 20
13 11 5 Stanford Pac-12 0.54 19 19 27
14 9 20.5 Louisville American 0.53 5 104 22
15 21 12.5 Florida SEC 0.50 31 12 16
16 7 7 Texas A&M SEC 0.47 26 21 8
17 12 9 South Carolina SEC 0.47 25 27 10
18 NR NR Oregon State Pac-12 0.44 13 64 18
19 NR 11 Wisconsin Big Ten 0.41 15 59 29
20 16 NR Texas Tech Big 12 0.40 7 99 45
112 . . Central Michigan MAC -0.54 101 111 113
113 . . Temple American -0.55 111 94 72
114 . . Air Force Mountain West -0.57 114 80 84
115 . . Florida International C-USA -0.61 116 76 116
116 . . Purdue Big Ten -0.62 123 44 109
117 . . Louisiana Tech C-USA -0.64 100 122 114
118 . . Eastern Michigan MAC -0.66 125 51 119
119 . . Western Michigan MAC -0.67 124 61 100
120 . . Umass MAC -0.69 115 100 124
121 . . Georgia St Sun Belt -0.69 122 70 126
122 . . Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.71 117 101 115
123 . . Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.75 91 126 117
124 . . Idaho Indep -0.76 118 102 125
125 . . Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.86 121 114 118
126 . . New Mexico State Indep -0.93 126 113 121

Some thoughts on the list:

1) One consistent theme that pops up when I've done these analyses the past few years is that Compu-Picks gives a lot more weight to schedule strength and dominance than does the BCS, and a lot less weight to simple W/L record and head to head. The same thing is likely to be true this time around.

2) As usual, I'm only posting the Compu-Picks ratings for the very top and bottom teams. This list will slowly expand as the season goes on. The reason I do this is that the teams at the very top and very bottom have to some degree separated themselves by now, while the teams on the next tiers can largely be jumbled together.

3) Baylor is an interesting case. The Bears have been slow to rise in the polls (though a number of computers, especially those that consider stats and/or margin, have been high on the Bears), in large part because their schedule has been exceptionally poor. That said, they have displayed not just an extreme level of dominance, but at least so far a consistently extreme level of dominance (the KSU game aside). It's also interesting to compare them to Louisville, another team who has been dominant against a now much poorer schedule.

For the human polls, the difference seems to entirely come from the preseason rankings, since many were high on Louisville and few were high on Baylor. As the season goes on, human preseason bias tends to diminish and by mid to late November, is basically gone. But for now that bias seems to be alive and well.

4) Missouri is fascinating to evaluate, as their achievement to dates make a mockery of their rankings in the simulated BCS as well as the Vegas poll, though at least the latter has the (presumed) explanation of severely docking the Tigers due to their quarterback injury. Mizzou has achieved at a very high level against a legitimate tough schedule. And yet they languish far below the level that they have earned. Unlike most teams in such a position, I'd guess that they will fall, but that's entirely due to injury. A healthy Tiger squad would be a very serious threat to win at least 10 games and very possibly more.

5) At the very top of the list, Alabama is to some degree living on past achievements. This year's team has not faced an elite schedule and has been dominant but not amazingly so. And yet they're a near-unanimous number one in the human polls. At some point they'll either earn their rank or they'll get beaten (or at least come very close)... but right now they simply have not earned #1.

6) It's more than a little weird that the (simulated) BCS ranks Clemson ahead of Florida State. The two teams have played schedules roughly as difficult, but FSU has displayed a level of dominance that Clemson just can't touch. It's no surprise that the Noles are a favorite against the Tigers, even in Death Valley.

7) Two teams that don't get enough respect, due largely to their extremely difficult schedules so far, are Georgia and Washington. Both of played brutal slates, and both have achieved a lot against those schedules. And yet both languish behind teams who enjoy gaudier records largely due to schedules that have been far less challenging.

8) Oregon State is an interesting case, as they have played very well ever since their embarrassing week one loss to a AA team. Still, this is an example of a team that benefits from Compu-Picks throwing out AA results. Had that game been counted as well, the Beavers would have been more like 25th, and possibly even a bit lower.

9) Miami is a good example of a team that has benefited from a relatively light schedule and seems overrated by the human polls. That said, the Canes have still played well enough to belong in the top 25, and seems to be underrated by the Don Best Vegas poll.

I am also adding a table showing the full list of 126 teams, sorted by rank and then by league and rank. At this point in the season, many of the underlying ratings are not credible, so while you may find the numbers here interesting, I strongly recommend against putting much weight into the rankings of the teams not shown in greater detail at the top of the page.

Rank Team League
1 Oregon Pac-12
2 Florida State ACC
3 Alabama SEC
4 Clemson ACC
5 Baylor Big 12
6 Missouri SEC
7 Louisiana State SEC
8 Ohio State Big Ten
9 Miami (Florida) ACC
10 UCLA Pac-12
11 Georgia SEC
12 Washington Pac-12
13 Stanford Pac-12
14 Louisville American
15 Florida SEC
16 Texas A&M SEC
17 South Carolina SEC
18 Oregon State Pac-12
19 Wisconsin Big Ten
20 Texas Tech Big 12
21 Utah Pac-12
22 Arizona State Pac-12
23 Virginia Tech ACC
24 Brigham Young Indep
25 Oklahoma Big 12
26 Central Florida American
27 Mississippi SEC
28 Auburn SEC
29 Tennessee SEC
30 Maryland ACC
31 Southern California Pac-12
32 Arizona Pac-12
33 Michigan Big Ten
34 Texas Big 12
35 Michigan State Big Ten
36 Oklahoma State Big 12
37 Georgia Tech ACC
38 Nebraska Big Ten
39 Ball State MAC
40 East Carolina C-USA
41 Texas Christian Big 12
42 Iowa Big Ten
43 Penn State Big Ten
44 Indiana Big Ten
45 Boise State Mountain West
46 Washington State Pac-12
47 Northwestern Big Ten
48 Pittsburgh ACC
49 Boston College ACC
50 Notre Dame Indep
51 Kansas State Big 12
52 Houston American
53 Vanderbilt SEC
54 Utah State Mountain West
55 Northern Illinois MAC
56 Western Kentucky Sun Belt
57 Iowa State Big 12
58 Buffalo MAC
59 Syracuse ACC
60 Duke ACC
61 Fresno State Mountain West
62 Toledo MAC
63 Marshall C-USA
64 South Alabama Sun Belt
65 West Virginia Big 12
66 North Texas C-USA
67 Rutgers American
68 Bowling Green State MAC
69 Illinois Big Ten
70 Ohio MAC
71 Mississippi State SEC
72 Tulane C-USA
73 Rice C-USA
74 Virginia ACC
75 North Carolina ACC
76 Arkansas SEC
77 Kentucky SEC
78 Wake Forest ACC
79 San Diego State Mountain West
80 Florida Atlantic C-USA
81 Navy Indep
82 North Carolina State ACC
83 Nevada Mountain West
84 Minnesota Big Ten
85 Memphis American
86 Colorado Pac-12
87 Cincinnati American
88 Wyoming Mountain West
89 South Florida American
90 San Jose State Mountain West
91 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt
92 California Pac-12
93 Army Indep
94 Arkansas State Sun Belt
95 Middle Tennessee State C-USA
96 Southern Methodist American
97 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt
98 Connecticut American
99 Texas State Sun Belt
100 Kent MAC
101 UTSA C-USA
102 Old Dominion Indep
103 Tulsa C-USA
104 Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West
105 Colorado State Mountain West
106 Hawaii Mountain West
107 Troy State Sun Belt
108 Kansas Big 12
109 Alabama-Birmingham C-USA
110 Akron MAC
111 New Mexico Mountain West
112 Central Michigan MAC
113 Temple American
114 Air Force Mountain West
115 Florida International C-USA
116 Purdue Big Ten
117 Louisiana Tech C-USA
118 Eastern Michigan MAC
119 Western Michigan MAC
120 Umass MAC
121 Georgia St Sun Belt
122 Southern Mississippi C-USA
123 Texas-El Paso C-USA
124 Idaho Indep
125 Miami (Ohio) MAC
126 New Mexico State Indep

Rank Team League Lg Rank
2 Florida State ACC 1
4 Clemson ACC 2
9 Miami (Florida) ACC 3
23 Virginia Tech ACC 4
30 Maryland ACC 5
37 Georgia Tech ACC 6
48 Pittsburgh ACC 7
49 Boston College ACC 8
59 Syracuse ACC 9
60 Duke ACC 10
74 Virginia ACC 11
75 North Carolina ACC 12
78 Wake Forest ACC 13
82 North Carolina State ACC 14
5 Baylor Big 12 1
20 Texas Tech Big 12 2
25 Oklahoma Big 12 3
34 Texas Big 12 4
36 Oklahoma State Big 12 5
41 Texas Christian Big 12 6
51 Kansas State Big 12 7
57 Iowa State Big 12 8
65 West Virginia Big 12 9
108 Kansas Big 12 10
8 Ohio State Big Ten 1
19 Wisconsin Big Ten 2
33 Michigan Big Ten 3
35 Michigan State Big Ten 4
38 Nebraska Big Ten 5
42 Iowa Big Ten 6
43 Penn State Big Ten 7
44 Indiana Big Ten 8
47 Northwestern Big Ten 9
69 Illinois Big Ten 10
84 Minnesota Big Ten 11
116 Purdue Big Ten 12
1 Oregon Pac-12 1
10 UCLA Pac-12 2
12 Washington Pac-12 3
13 Stanford Pac-12 4
18 Oregon State Pac-12 5
21 Utah Pac-12 6
22 Arizona State Pac-12 7
31 Southern California Pac-12 8
32 Arizona Pac-12 9
46 Washington State Pac-12 10
86 Colorado Pac-12 11
92 California Pac-12 12
3 Alabama SEC 1
6 Missouri SEC 2
7 Louisiana State SEC 3
11 Georgia SEC 4
15 Florida SEC 5
16 Texas A&M SEC 6
17 South Carolina SEC 7
27 Mississippi SEC 8
28 Auburn SEC 9
29 Tennessee SEC 10
53 Vanderbilt SEC 11
71 Mississippi State SEC 12
76 Arkansas SEC 13
77 Kentucky SEC 14
14 Louisville American 1
26 Central Florida American 2
52 Houston American 3
67 Rutgers American 4
85 Memphis American 5
87 Cincinnati American 6
89 South Florida American 7
96 Southern Methodist American 8
98 Connecticut American 9
113 Temple American 10
24 Brigham Young Indep 1
50 Notre Dame Indep 2
81 Navy Indep 3
93 Army Indep 4
102 Old Dominion Indep 5
124 Idaho Indep 6
126 New Mexico State Indep 7
45 Boise State Mountain West 1
54 Utah State Mountain West 2
61 Fresno State Mountain West 3
79 San Diego State Mountain West 4
83 Nevada Mountain West 5
88 Wyoming Mountain West 6
90 San Jose State Mountain West 7
104 Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 8
105 Colorado State Mountain West 9
106 Hawaii Mountain West 10
111 New Mexico Mountain West 11
114 Air Force Mountain West 12
40 East Carolina C-USA 1
63 Marshall C-USA 2
66 North Texas C-USA 3
72 Tulane C-USA 4
73 Rice C-USA 5
80 Florida Atlantic C-USA 6
95 Middle Tennessee State C-USA 7
101 UTSA C-USA 8
103 Tulsa C-USA 9
109 Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 10
115 Florida International C-USA 11
117 Louisiana Tech C-USA 12
122 Southern Mississippi C-USA 13
123 Texas-El Paso C-USA 14
39 Ball State MAC 1
55 Northern Illinois MAC 2
58 Buffalo MAC 3
62 Toledo MAC 4
68 Bowling Green State MAC 5
70 Ohio MAC 6
100 Kent MAC 7
110 Akron MAC 8
112 Central Michigan MAC 9
118 Eastern Michigan MAC 10
119 Western Michigan MAC 11
120 Umass MAC 12
125 Miami (Ohio) MAC 13
56 Western Kentucky Sun Belt 1
64 South Alabama Sun Belt 2
91 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 3
94 Arkansas State Sun Belt 4
97 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 5
99 Texas State Sun Belt 6
107 Troy State Sun Belt 7
121 Georgia St Sun Belt 8
This article is subject to the Compu-Picks terms of use

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