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COW Part 3 - Predicting The BCS League Races

Campus Insiders & CFN
Posted Oct 22, 2013


Cavalcade of Whimsy, Part 3, Predicting The BCS League Races

Cavalcade of Whimsy

October 22, Part 3

E-mail Pete Fiutak
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Fiu on TV?! Beautiful people talking college football.
Check out Fiu on the Download with Bonnie Bernstein on Campus Insiders 

Cavalcade of Whimsy - Oct. 22
- Part 1 - Fiu crashing the playoff committee
- Part 2 - Predicting the 2nd half of the non-BCS & AAC season  

5. Big 12
- Now what? Oklahoma appeared to be the class of the conference, but the loss to Texas has thrown everything into a tailspin. West Virginia, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State are all but out, and TCU isn’t going to fight back at 1-3 in league play to win it all. Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech are about to be in for a Big 12 war.
- Baylor has been brilliant at 6-0 overall, and it’ll rip through Kansas, but there’s no way it’ll go unbeaten against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas. However, it’ll win four of the five and end up in the Fiesta. No one is stopping this attack cold.
- Oklahoma’s loss to the Longhorns matters, but the close call against TCU should’ve shown everyone what was coming. The Sooners still have another two losses coming their way at Baylor and Oklahoma State on the road, but they’ll beat everyone else.
- Oklahoma State gaffed against West Virginia, and there should be a few more losses with games at Texas Tech and Texas along with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. The Cowboys will lose at least two more games.
- Which Texas will show up the rest of the way? It can beat anyone, but it can also lose to anyone like TCU, West Virginia or Baylor on the road. The losses are coming.
- Texas Tech really is good, but the best win is over TCU. The Red Raiders will lose to Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor.
- So, basically, everyone is going to pick each other off. It’s not going to be pretty, but Baylor will get to the Fiesta Bowl after winning several key shootouts.
Bowl Bound: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU
Final Big 12 Three: 1. Baylor, 2. Texas, 3. Oklahoma

4. Big Ten
- The Legends is going to be a dogfight. Michigan has the most talent, but it’s way too flaky and it has the hardest road, almost literally, going away from Ann Arbor for three of the next four games before hosting Ohio State. There isn’t an easy game left on the slate – the Wolverines will lose at Michigan State and against either Northwestern or Iowa on the road. However, they’ll beat Nebraska and the Buckeyes at home.
- Michigan State’s defense will be enough to beat Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota, but it’s Michigan State and there’s no offense – there’s a dud coming in there somewhere, probably at Nebraska.
- Minnesota just needs one win to go bowling. It’ll need to come up with an upset after shocking Northwestern, and it’ll get it against Penn State. However, the Gophers will lose their other five games.
- Northwestern has lost three straight, and now it’s in big, big trouble. It’ll go bowling, bit it’ll limp in, needing to beat Illinois in the regular-season finale to get a bid. Iowa will win two of the three home games against Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan, and it’ll win at Purdue.
- The Huskers has the easiest road left, and it should be able to survive a loss at Michigan to finish 7-1 to win the Legends.
- Ohio State won’t run the table, but it’s not going to lose twice. Wisconsin will also win out, but it’ll have to settle for a tie in the Leaders standings after the Buckeyes lose to Michigan. OSU, because of its win over Bucky, will go to the Big Ten title game.
- Penn State will finish with a winning season, but it has to go on the road to face Ohio State and Wisconsin. Forget about Purdue, and Illinois is in big, big trouble – it’s not winning three of its last six games to go bowling.
- Indiana is going to be interesting. The offense is good enough to beat anyone left on the schedule, but it has to go on the road to face Wisconsin and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks. Getting by Minnesota and Illinois shouldn’t be a problem, and at 5-6, it should hit the layup against Purdue to be bowl eligible.
- Ohio State over Nebraska in the Big Ten championship.
Bowl Bound: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Final Big Ten Three: LEADERS 1. Ohio State, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Penn State. LEGENDS 1. Nebraska, 2. Michigan State, 3. Iowa

3. ACC
- If Florida State loses in ACC play, it’s going to take a complete and total clunker. Clemson will win out to settle the Atlantic.
- Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest will pick each other off, and it’ll be really, really tough for more than two of the teams to become bowl eligible.
- Maryland will get at least one win to go bowling, while Wake Forest is in trouble unless it can come up with a win at Syracuse – it’s not winning at Miami or against Florida State or at Vandy.
- Boston College has to go on the road for four of the last six games and needs to come up with two upsets around a win over New Mexico State. NC State is injured and struggling, and it has to go to Florida State, but it should be able to get three wins the rest of the way against North Carolina, at Duke, at BC, East Carolina and Maryland.
- The Coastal should come down to Miami vs. Virginia Tech. Miami will lose at Florida State, but it’ll have to gear it up in a hurry to deal with the Hokies at home. Virginia Tech will lose at Miami and at Boston College, giving the Hurricanes the division.
- Georgia Tech is done after losing to both the Hurricanes and Hokies, but it should rip through Virginia, Pitt and Alabama A&M to be bowl eligible with ease.
- North Carolina and Virginia are done, while Duke will come up with the one win needed to go bowling, but it’ll take an upset. Pitt has to win two of the final six games, and it will with winnable games against Navy, North Carolina and Syracuse, and a shot against Notre Dame and Miami at home.
Bowl Bound: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Final ACC Three: ATLANTIC 1. Florida State, 2. Clemson, 3. Maryland. COASTAL 1. Miami, 2. Virginia Tech, 3. Georgia Tech

2. Pac-12
- Is Oregon State a player in the North? It hasn’t faced anyone yet – there’s a chance the Beavers haven’t played a team that’ll end up in a bowl. There isn’t anything cheap the rest of the way, and the losses will come to Stanford, Arizona State and Oregon.
- Oregon at Stanford. That might be the Pac-12 championship, but watch out for the Duck trip to Arizona – the Wildcats have the firepower to keep up. The Cardinal will beat the Ducks and roll through the rest of the schedule on the way to a second straight Pac-12 championship game. People will show up this time.
- California is done, but Washington will bounce back to win three of the last five games, losing at UCLA and Oregon State. Washington State needs two wins to go bowling, but it won’t get them.
- Schedule, schedule, schedule. UCLA already had to face Stanford, and it still has to go to Oregon and Arizona while dealing with Washington, Arizona State and USC. Meanwhile, Arizona State doesn’t have to face Oregon and it gets Oregon State at home. The Sun Devils will lose at UCLA, and they’ll finish with two conference losses, meaning they’ll need a third Bruin loss that won’t come. Arizona will go on a roll against Colorado and Cal, but it’ll lose at least two of the three games against UCLA, Oregon and at Arizona State.
- Utah needs to win two of the final five games to get to a bowl, and it will with Washington State and Colorado still to play. Meanwhile, USC will easily win two more games and should come up with wins in at least three of the final five games. It’ll split against Oregon State and UCLA.
- Stanford over UCLA in the Pac-12 championship for the second year in a row.
Bowl Bound: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington

Final Pac-12 Three: NORTH: 1 Stanford, 2. Oregon, 3. Oregon State. SOUTH: 1. UCLA, 2. Arizona State, 3. Arizona

1. SEC
- Raise your hand if you saw Missouri coming? It’s not over with games against South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M to face, but the Tigers will survive and get to Atlanta even if they suffer losses in two of those three games.
- South Carolina will lose at Missouri, but it’ll roll through the rest of the SEC schedule against Mississippi State, Florida and Coastal Carolina before closing out with a loss to Clemson.
- Georgia is still alive, but it needs Missouri to lose three times – that’s still possible. The Bulldogs will win out, including at Auburn.
- Florida will rise up defensively to get by Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern to become bowl eligible, but it’ll lose to Georgia, South Carolina and Florida State. Vanderbilt will beat Kentucky and Wake Forest to get to six wins, while Tennessee will need the win over the Commodores to go along with a victory over UK to go bowling.
- Alabama will be in for a dogfight against LSU, but it’ll win out. The Auburn game will be hyped up, but the Tide will rise to the challenge.
- Auburn will win at Arkansas and Tennessee, but it’ll lose to Georgia and Alabama, while Ole Miss will win four of the final five games, losing to Missouri.
- Arkansas, Mississippi State and Kentucky will all miss out on the post-season fun.
- Alabama over Missouri for the SEC title.
- Texas A&M will lose at LSU and Missouri – no defense – but it’ll blow by Vanderbilt, UTEP and Mississippi State.
Bowl Bound: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Final SEC Three: EAST 1. Missouri, 2. Georgia, 3. South Carolina WEST 1. Alabama, 2. LSU, 3. Auburn

Random Acts of Nutty … Provocative musings and tidbits to make every woman want you and every man want to be you (or vice versa) a.k.a. things I didn’t feel like writing bigger blurbs for.

- I want to see a study done on the advantage of taking a timeout over losing the five yards for delay of game. Losing a time out seems like too stiff a price to pay for just a few yards.

- All Johnny Manziel interceptions have to be forgiven. He has to press and press some more considering the defense is almost never going to hold serve.

- In the new world of concussion protocols and worries about CTE, when a guy comes off the field after getting banged up, don’t slap him on the head. After suffering a concussion, the last thing a player needs is another head bonk.

C.O.W. shameless gimmick item … The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
1) Overrated: Anchorman … Underrated: Anchorman 2 Dodge Durango ads
2) Overrated: Buffalo’s red hot offense … Underrated: Buffalo’s second half schedule
3) Overrated: Begging Jadeveon Clowney to rest up for the NFL ... Underrated: Begging Marqise Lee to rest up for the NFL
4) Overrated: Texas Tech offense ... Underrated: Texas Tech defense
5) Overrated: Alabama 49, Texas A&M 42 ... Underrated: Auburn 45, Texas A&M 41

“If it were me, I'd bet everything. But that's me. I'm an aggressive gambler. Mr. Vegas. Come on. Go for it. Go for it. Yes, yes, there we go. I'm in.”
I missed last week, but I was dead-on right telling readers who asked to look into Ohio and the Oregon-Washington State opener. 3-3 ATS two weeks ago I load up …

1) Kentucky +10 over Mississippi State (MSU SU)
2) Boise State +7 over BYU
3) Western Michigan +3 over UMass
4) Clemson -14 over Maryland
5) UCLA +23.5 over Oregon (Oregon SU)
6) West Virginia +11 over Kansas State (Kansas State SU)
7) Texas +1.5 over TCU
8) Nebraska +10.5 over Minnesota
- Record So Far: 15-8 SU, 13-10 ATS

Sorry this column sucked, it wasn’t my fault … I fruitlessly continued to try, and Nick Aliotti called me low class because of it. 

Cavalcade of Whimsy - Oct. 22
- Part 1 - Fiu crashing the playoff committee
- Part 2 - Predicting the 2nd half of the non-BCS & AAC season