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COW, Part 2 - Predicting The Non-BCS & AAC

Campus Insiders & CFN
Posted Oct 22, 2013


Cavalcade of Whimsy, Part 2, Predicting The Non-BCS & AAC Races

Cavalcade of Whimsy

October 22, Part 2

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Cavalcade of Whimsy - Oct. 22
- Part 1 - Fiu crashing the playoff committee 
- Part 3 - Predicting the 2nd half of the BCS league seasons 

The C.O.W. airing of the grievances followed by the feats of strength
Predicting every conference race for the remainder of the season …

11. Independents
- Notre Dame will have to shoehorn its way into someone’s bowl game – it doesn’t have a bowl tie-in – but a BCS bowl bid is still possible by going 10-2 including wins over BYU and Stanford. 9-3 and a mid-level bowl is more likely.
- BYU is already set for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl with one more win.
- 3-3 Navy will get to six wins with Hawaii, South Alabama, Army and San Jose State all winnable.
- At 3-5, Army is in big, big trouble – the blowout loss to Temple was devastating. Now it has to win three of the last four against Air Force, WKU, Hawaii and Navy to go bowling. It won’t happen.
Bowl Bound: BYU, Navy, Notre Dame

10. Sun Belt
It’s wide-open for the taking, but Georgia State, Texas State and ULM appear to be a step behind everyone else.
- If Arkansas State beats UL-Lafayette, it’ll be unbeaten in Sun Belt play until the regular season-ender at WKU.
- Going to South Alabama to close out the regular season will be a problem, but the Louisiana-Lafayette win over WKU puts it into the driver’s seat.
- South Alabama shocked WKU but lost to Troy. All the tough remaining Sun Belt games are at home – this is the X factor.
- Troy will beat ULM and Texas State to get to six wins, but losses to WKU and Louisiana-Lafayette will be costly.
- WKU will run the table with Troy and Arkansas State coming to Bowling Green, but it might be too late. The Hilltoppers need too much help after losing to ULL.
Bowl Bound: Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas State
Final Sun Belt Top Three: 1. Louisiana-Lafayette, 2. Arkansas State, 3. South Alabama

9. MAC
- The East is cut-and-dry. Bowling Green is the class of the division, but Buffalo has gotten hot and Ohio is still dealing with a stunningly bad loss to Central Michigan. Those three are in the fight, and Akron, UMass, Kent State and Miami University are the also-rans. - The West is fascinating. Ball State and Northern Illinois join Bowling Green as the top teams in the conference, and Toledo isn’t far behind despite a loss to Ball State. Central Michigan is 2-2, but despite the win over Ohio, it isn’t that good and now it’s all but out of it after losing to Northern Illinois. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan are playing for fun.
- Bowling Green has to face Toledo and Ohio, but both games are at home. Beating Miami University and Eastern Michigan on the road won’t be a problem, but the finale at Buffalo in late November could be dangerous.
- Buffalo has to go on the road to face Kent State, Toledo and Miami University, but it gets Ohio and Bowling Green at home. It’ll lose both big games against the East, while Ohio will lose to Bowling Green.
- Ball State at Northern Illinois on November 13th. That might be for the MAC title. The Cardinals will roll at Western Michigan and Akron, and they’ll beat CMU and Miami. However, they’ll lose at NIU. The Huskies have struggled too much, but they’ll get past Ball State and Toledo.
- Bowling Green will ruin NIU’s dream season in the MAC championship.
Bowl Bound: Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Toledo
Final MAC Three: EAST 1. Bowling Green, 2. Buffalo, 3. Ohio. WEST 1. Northern Illinois, 2. Ball State, 3. Toledo

8. Conference USA
- All of a sudden, the East has gotten weird. Marshall and East Carolina appeared to be the league’s stars, but the Herd struggled against Florida Atlantic and East Carolina lost to Tulane. Fortunately for both, UAB, FIU, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss makes the East the far weaker division.
- Marshall will win at home over East Carolina on the final day of the Conference USA regular season. It’ll have to battle with Tulsa, but it’ll rip through the rest of the league slate.
- Even if Marshall loses at Tulsa from the West, it’ll win the East by beating everyone in the division.
- The West will be a bloodbath. Tulane and Rice are stunningly 3-0, but Tulsa and North Texas are dangerous. Louisiana Tech, UTSA and UTEP will step aside.
- Tulane will lose to Tulsa, but it’ll stay hot despite going on the road to deal with FAU’s good defense. The loss at Rice at the end of the regular season will be a problem.
- Rice might be shaky, but it already has a win over Tulsa on the road. It’ll lose to North Texas, but it’ll take the West by beating everyone else, including Tulane.
- North Texas lost at Tulane and can’t afford a mistake, but it’ll lose at Tulsa after going on a terrific run in conference play.
- Tulsa has to get by Tulane after getting two weeks off to prepare – it will. Unfortunately, the Golden Hurricane has to face East Carolina, Marshall and North Texas, too.
- Marshall will beat Rice for the Conference USA title.
Bowl Bound: Marshall, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, North Texas, Middle Tennessee
Final C-USA Three: EAST 1. Marshall, 2. East Carolina, 3. Middle Tennessee. WEST 1. Rice, 2. Tulane, 3. North Texas

7. AAC
- In one weekend, the AAC went from having two unbeaten teams to none, and now it’s truly an also-ran league. After the UCF win over Louisville, it’s there for the taking with Houston and Rutgers coming to Orlando. Win out, and the Knights are going down the road to the Orange Bowl.
- Don’t sleep on Louisville’s date at Cincinnati to close out the regular season. However, it’ll take a major upset for anyone else to come close to beating the loaded Cardinals. Now they have to hope for two UCF losses.
- Houston has to go on the road to face Rutgers, UCF and Louisville and still has to face Cincinnati. Thanks for playing.
- Cincinnati’s loss at South Florida will hurt as the year goes on. Closing out the year at Rutgers, at Houston and against Louisville will end AAC title dreams.
Bowl Bound: Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Rutgers, UCF
Final AAC Three: 1. Louisville, 2. UCF, 3. Rutgers

6. Mountain West
- After a horrible start, the Mountain West has gotten a lot more interesting as conference play kicked in. Fresno State is the star, but Boise State isn’t bad and a slew of teams like UNLV, San Diego State and San Jose State are resurging.
- Fresno State was shaky late against Hawaii, and it beat both Rutgers and Boise State by a point, but it’s going to take a major upset to lose to anyone on the conference schedule. However, be careful of road games at San Diego State, Wyoming and San Jose State.
- San Diego State was awful over the first three games, but it won the last three. With Fresno State and Boise State coming to its house, the chance is there to make lots and lots of noise. Meanwhile, San Jose State has a rough go with no layups the rest of the way.
- At 2-2 in the conference Nevada is all but done after losing to Boise State, and it still has to go on the road to face Fresno State and Colorado State. UNLV won four straight before losing to Fresno State, and it could go bowling even if it loses to Nevada this week. A win over San Jose State is a must.
- Utah State with Chuckie Keeton had a shot at the Mountain, but it’s going to take a step back in the conference chase. Wyoming looked ready to make some noise, but the loss to Colorado State was devastating with road games against San Jose State, Boise State and Utah State to go along with a date with Fresno State. Boise State has to go to San Diego State, but it should run through the Mountain.
- Can Fresno State beat Boise State twice for the Mountain West title? Yes.
Bowl Bound: Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State
Final Mountain West Three: MOUNTAIN 1. Boise State, 2. Utah State, 3. Colorado State. WEST 1. Fresno State, 2. San Diego State, 3. Nevada 

Cavalcade of Whimsy - Oct. 22
- Part 1 - Fiu crashing the playoff committee 
- Part 3 - Predicting the 2nd half of the BCS league seasons