Week 9 - Texas at TCU

Posted Oct 24, 2013

Week 9 Fearless Prediction & Preview - Texas at TCU

- Oklahoma State at Iowa State | Texas Tech at Oklahoma
- West Virginia at Kansas State | Baylor at Kansas | Texas at TCU

Texas (4-2) at TCU (3-4) Oct. 26 7:30, FOX Sports 1

Why You Should Give A Hoot: By almost any reasonable standard, Texas had a decent 2012 season, but it was soured by a few key losses suffered in painful fashion. The 20-13 defeat to TCU was front and center, even beyond the disaster against Oklahoma, because it had a few really, really bad elements. First, it ended a four-game losing streak that appeared to bring the program's mojo back. Second, it was a lifeless performance on a nationally televised stage, and third, it was TCU. Texas is Texas and TCU is TCU – at least that's how it's supposed to be in Longhorn world. This time around, though, losing might be even worse, because this year the Big 12 title is right there for the taking.

Texas has had two weeks off to sit back and groove on the Oklahoma win, but there's plenty of work to be done with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor still to deal with. In the meantime, at 3-0 in the Big 12, things are starting to turn, even if it might seem like the team plays like it's on the verge of a total defensive meltdown at any time.

TCU needs something to jumpstart its season after a bad 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State. There's not enough offensive pop, the defense isn't able to pick up the slack, and a bowl game is hardly a given at 3-4. However, it's the Big 12, so there are more lightweights on the way, but first, beating Texas for a second year in a row would be really, really nice.

Why Texas Might Win: Everyone with a little bit of power and toughness can rumble on a Texas defense that played out of its head against Oklahoma. TCU doesn't really play with any power or toughness. The offensive line isn't paving the way for a good group of running backs, and the ground attack hasn't been there so far outside of 207-yard games against Texas Tech and Kansas. However, for TCU to get over 200, it has to totally commit to the ground attack, which isn't a bad idea against the Longhorns, but the points have to come. Getting scores out of the Horned Frogs has been like pulling teeth. However …

Why TCU Might Win: The Horned Frog run defense might be able to keep the game within range. LSU was able to run when it had to, and Oklahoma came up with a nice day, but for the most part, teams aren't having much success on the ground against a feisty defensive front that's getting into the backfield and is doing a nice job of being disruptive. The tackles for loss are coming on a regular basis, and the Texas running game, while effective, has a problem of getting caught behind the line way to often. Texas gives up just under seven tackles for loss per game – TCU should be in the double digits.

Who To Watch Out For: Case McCoy, keep on doing what you're doing. David Ash is still trying to recover from a concussion suffered a few weeks ago, and McCoy has stepped in and done well with 244 yards and a game-winning drive against Iowa State, and an effective day against Oklahoma with just one key mistake. He has to keep his cool under the pressure, and he has to keep the mistakes to a bare minimum. Texas is faster, more athletic and more talented, but that hasn't mattered much at times. Ash has to be a difference-maker on third downs and by letting the rest of the team shine.

What Will Happen: Which Texas team will show up after two weeks off? The run defense will be porous, but the offense will be just effective enough to get by, while the pass rush will bother a shockingly error-prone TCU offense.

Prediction: Texas 31 … TCU 27
Line: TCU -1.5 o/u: 51
Must See Rating: (5 The Counselor – 1 Last Vegas) … 3
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