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Week 11 - Kansas State at Texas Tech
Posted Nov 7, 2013

Week 11 Big 12 Fearless Predictions & Preview - Kansas State at Texas Tech

Kansas State (4-4) at Texas Tech (7-2) Nov. 9 12:00, ABC/ESPN3

Why You Should Give A Hoot: One team turned its season around over the last few weeks, while the other is trying to get its groove back. Technically, they’re both still alive in the Big 12 title chase, but that’s not going to happen for either one without a minor miracle. For now, it’s about Kansas State trying to get closer to a bowl bid and Texas Tech jockeying for position to get a better one.

The Wildcats were dying a painful death, at least compared to the fun they had throughout last season, with a 2-4 start and a slew of tough, close losses. But with blowout wins over West Virginia and Iowa State, and with the easy dates against TCU and Kansas still ahead, getting to six wins is now realistic. Beating Texas Tech, though, would be the highlight of the season so far.

The Red Raiders, on the other hand, have slipped over the last few games, finally playing the tough part of the schedule and struggling through it. They failed to beat a sure-thing bowl bound team over the first seven wins, but they battled hard in a loss to Oklahoma. Last week, though, the wheels came off a bit in their worst performance of the season, a 52-34 loss to Oklahoma State. With Baylor and Texas to close things out, this could be a rough finishing kick if they can’t beat Kansas State in the final true home game of the year.

Why Kansas State Might Win: The Wildcat secondary has been solid against some decent offenses. Baylor threw for 332 yards and three scores, but it does that against everyone. No one else has been able to push the ball deep on a regular basis, and with a good group of tackling defensive backs that doesn’t allow too many yards after the catch, giving up a few dinks and dunks here and there to the Texas Tech offense won’t be a problem. On the other side of the ball, the Red Raiders have struggled against the run over the last several games, giving up 13 of the 17 rushing touchdowns in the last four outings. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were able to do whatever they wanted on the ground.

Why Texas Tech Might Win: Kansas State is one of the few teams on the Texas Tech schedule that has just as many problems with turnovers as it does. The Wildcats were better against Iowa State, and they haven’t been on the wrong side of the turnover margin in three weeks, but they’ll give up a few mistakes. Expect a few interceptions from the Red Raiders against a hawkish KSU secondary, but the mistakes should all even out. This isn’t a high-powered Kansas State O, and if Texas Tech is able to get an early lead, there will be big problems for the Wildcats to come back.

Who To Watch Out For: It’s not just about the stats when it comes to Texas Tech tight end Jace Amaro, but they help. Already the favorite target for both Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb, Amaro has been unstoppable at times, catching 100 yards of passes or more in each of the last four games with 15 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown against Oklahoma State. He’ll be the main man Kansas State tries to take out, but everyone has made the attempt with no help.

What Will Happen: Texas Tech will get back on track in a fun game. In the final true home game of the year – the Baylor game is in Arlington – the Red Raiders will play well, controlling the clock a bit more than normal. Kansas State will come up with a few big plays, and will get a great punt return or two, but it won’t be enough.

Prediction: Texas Tech 38 … Kansas State 31
Line: Texas Tech -3 o/u: 59.5
Must See Rating: (5 The Wolf of Wall Street – 1 Ass Backwards) … 3
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