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Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: Week 12_01

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Nov 18, 2013


Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: rating all of the teams in college football after week twelve

Article originally appeared at Compu-Picks.com.

As of the end of the games on Saturday November 16th, these are the full list of Compu-Picks ratings. Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. Also, please note that the model does not consider games against AA teams; the * marks for result and schedule rankings designate that these are results and schedules solely counting games against fellow 1-A programs.


Please note that this article is continued here. Data supporting this article comes from cfbstats.com, , Pinnacle Sports, and others.


Rank BCS Rank Team League Rating Result Rank * Schedule Rank *
1 2 Florida State ACC 0.97 1 40
2 5 Oregon Pac-12 0.89 4 11
3 4 Baylor Big 12 0.88 2 52
4 1 Alabama SEC 0.88 3 35
5 8 Missouri SEC 0.71 8 32
6 19 Wisconsin Big Ten 0.67 9 41
7 3 Ohio State Big Ten 0.67 5 55
8 7 Clemson ACC 0.62 13 26
9 17 Arizona State Pac-12 0.61 25 5
10 9 Stanford Pac-12 0.61 24 6
11 6 Auburn SEC 0.59 19 18
12 10 Oklahoma State Big 12 0.57 11 54
13 12 Texas A&M SEC 0.52 17 34
14 22 Louisiana State SEC 0.51 27 17
15 11 South Carolina SEC 0.47 31 20
16 14 UCLA Pac-12 0.47 23 33
17 23 Southern California Pac-12 0.44 33 24
18 NR Washington Pac-12 0.43 43 8
19 13 Michigan State Big Ten 0.43 10 78
20 NR Kansas State Big 12 0.42 29 45
21 NR Georgia SEC 0.41 59 3
22 NR Brigham Young Indep 0.40 35 27
23 21 Louisville American 0.40 6 99
24 24 Mississippi SEC 0.39 41 21
25 20 Oklahoma Big 12 0.35 26 56
26 . Oregon State Pac-12 0.34 42 31
27 . Virginia Tech ACC 0.33 53 16
28 . Georgia Tech ACC 0.32 51 15
29 . Texas Big 12 0.31 44 44
30 18 Central Florida American 0.30 15 74
31 . Utah Pac-12 0.29 82 1
32 . Houston American 0.29 34 59
33 . Arizona Pac-12 0.29 45 38
34 . Duke ACC 0.29 30 63
35 . Miami (Florida) ACC 0.27 52 22
36 . Iowa Big Ten 0.26 49 43
37 . Texas Tech Big 12 0.25 50 39
38 . Florida SEC 0.24 64 13
39 . Vanderbilt SEC 0.23 55 37
40 . Washington State Pac-12 0.21 79 4
41 . Notre Dame Indep 0.19 47 57
42 16 Northern Illinois MAC 0.19 7 122
43 . East Carolina C-USA 0.19 12 117
44 . North Carolina ACC 0.17 58 46
45 . Michigan Big Ten 0.17 36 65
46 . Boise State Mountain West 0.16 32 81
47 . Utah State Mountain West 0.15 37 72
48 25 Minnesota Big Ten 0.13 40 70
49 15 Fresno State Mountain West 0.13 14 118
50 . Nebraska Big Ten 0.12 46 68
51 . Boston College ACC 0.11 63 47
52 . Buffalo MAC 0.10 28 104
53 . Mississippi State SEC 0.09 87 9
54 . Tennessee SEC 0.08 100 2
55 . Pittsburgh ACC 0.08 65 53
56 . Texas Christian Big 12 0.07 76 30
57 . Northwestern Big Ten 0.06 69 49
58 . Bowling Green State MAC 0.06 16 119
59 . Toledo MAC 0.06 48 75
60 . North Texas C-USA 0.05 21 116
61 . Ball State MAC 0.05 22 115
62 . Marshall C-USA 0.04 18 120
63 . Indiana Big Ten 0.03 77 29
64 . Syracuse ACC 0.03 78 36
65 . Maryland ACC 0.03 61 61
66 . Rice C-USA 0.01 39 102
67 . Navy Indep 0.00 54 73
68 . Penn State Big Ten -0.01 56 71
69 . Cincinnati American -0.02 20 124
70 . Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt -0.06 38 114
71 . West Virginia Big 12 -0.06 95 19
72 . Wake Forest ACC -0.09 84 50
73 . Florida Atlantic C-USA -0.10 67 77
74 . Iowa State Big 12 -0.12 108 7
75 . Memphis American -0.13 75 66
76 . Colorado State Mountain West -0.14 57 108
77 . Illinois Big Ten -0.14 94 42
78 . San Diego State Mountain West -0.15 62 96
79 . UTSA C-USA -0.15 73 84
80 . Arkansas SEC -0.15 101 28
81 . North Carolina State ACC -0.15 93 51
82 . Tulane C-USA -0.18 66 89
83 . Middle Tennessee State C-USA -0.18 74 76
84 . Colorado Pac-12 -0.19 112 10
85 . Arkansas State Sun Belt -0.19 72 92
86 . Western Kentucky Sun Belt -0.19 60 110
87 . Kentucky SEC -0.20 106 23
88 . San Jose State Mountain West -0.22 83 69
89 . Ohio MAC -0.24 68 106
90 . Rutgers American -0.25 80 87
91 . Southern Methodist American -0.25 81 83
92 . South Alabama Sun Belt -0.26 70 100
93 . Virginia ACC -0.27 114 14
94 . Nevada Mountain West -0.28 91 64
95 . Old Dominion Indep -0.29 98 67
96 . Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West -0.31 85 88
97 . Kansas Big 12 -0.31 111 48
98 . South Florida American -0.34 107 58
99 . Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt -0.34 92 85
100 . California Pac-12 -0.35 119 12
101 . Temple American -0.37 99 79
102 . Troy State Sun Belt -0.38 90 93
103 . Texas State Sun Belt -0.44 71 125
104 . Hawaii Mountain West -0.44 109 62
105 . Tulsa C-USA -0.44 105 80
106 . Wyoming Mountain West -0.45 86 112
107 . Akron MAC -0.45 97 97
108 . Army Indep -0.48 96 107
109 . Kent MAC -0.50 102 98
110 . New Mexico Mountain West -0.51 89 121
111 . Purdue Big Ten -0.53 126 25
112 . Connecticut American -0.53 117 60
113 . Central Michigan MAC -0.56 104 109
114 . Louisiana Tech C-USA -0.57 88 126
115 . Air Force Mountain West -0.58 110 94
116 . Alabama-Birmingham C-USA -0.60 113 82
117 . Georgia State Sun Belt -0.64 118 91
118 . Umass MAC -0.64 115 86
119 . Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.67 103 123
120 . Western Michigan MAC -0.70 116 105
121 . Idaho Indep -0.80 120 90
122 . New Mexico State Indep -0.82 124 95
123 . Eastern Michigan MAC -0.83 122 101
124 . Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.89 125 103
125 . Florida International C-USA -0.90 121 111
126 . Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.92 123 113

Some thoughts on the list:


1) One fun thing I've done in prior years is track the "Compu-Picks Curse," whereby teams that Compu-Picks thinks the BCS has substantially overrated have a strong tendency to have embarrasingly bad performances (blowout losses to strong teams or outright upsets to teams they outrank in the BCS). One special highlight of this process was in 2010, when Michigan State was a regular on the list and managed to get blown out twice by two teams ranked lower in the BCS, Iowa and Alabama. One highlight this year was Miami, who got blown out by Florida State and lost to Virginia Tech on consecutive weeks while posted on this list (and then lost at Duke the next week though their rank fell far enough to avoid the "Curse").

These teams are identified by the difference between their rating and the rating of the team whose Compu-Picks rank matches their BCS rank. So for instance, Minnesota is BCS #25, so their Compu-Picks score of 0.13 is compared to the Compu-Picks 25th ranked Oklahoma, who has a score of 0.35. Since the difference is at least 0.10, they qualify for the "Compu-Picks Curse." The following teams make this week's list:

Ohio State; South Carolina; UCF; Northern Illinois; Minnesota; Fresno State.

Results so far:

After week 11 (1-4): Ohio State (L: beat up Illinois); Stanford (W: lost at USC); UCF (L: squeaked by Temple); Oklahoma (L: beat up Iowa St); Northern Illinois (L: beat up Ball St); Fresno State (N/A: did not play).

After week 10 (3-4): Alabama (L) ; Ohio State (N/A); Stanford (L); Auburn (L); Miami (W); Oklahoma (W); Notre Dame (W); Northern Illinois (N/A); Fresno State (L)

After week 9 (2-4): Ohio State (L); Miami (W); Oklahoma (N/a); Michigan (W); Notre Dame (L); Northern Illinois (L); and Fresno State (L).

After week 8 (1-5): Ohio State (L); Oklahoma (L); Oklahoma State (L); Michigan (N/A); Nebraska (W); Northern Illinois (L); and Fresno State (L).


2) One consistent theme that pops up when I've done these analyses the past few years is that Compu-Picks gives a lot more weight to schedule strength and dominance than does the BCS, and a lot less weight to simple W/L record and head to head. The same thing is true this time around.


3) The national title race is pretty clearly Alabama and Florida State's to lose. However, Compu-Picks pegs Oregon and Baylor as being very much in Alabama's league after the Tide struggled at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Florida State just continues crushing everybody against a schedule that, while hardly elite, is still good enough that they should have been challenged by now. If you aren't voting them #1, then you're basing it on something other than what's happened on the field in 2013, because the 'Noles have been the best team in the country, and it's really not all that close.


4) I'm sure Ohio State fans will be less than thrilled to see Compu-Picks continuing its "disrespect", but the simple truth is that the Buckeyes' resume, while pretty good, is far from elite. The Top 25 performance list has exactly zero Ohio State showings, compared to four for Oregon, three for Baylor, three for Alabama and a whopping five for Florida State (including three of the top five). At this point, the Buckeyes' best showing is their dominant win over Penn State, which is certainly a good performance but not close to a truly elite one (mainly because Penn State just isn't all that good).
Looking at things at a higher level doesn't change the story. Ohio State has been very dominant but not at the level of the top four, and their schedule has been frankly non-descript. An elite team SHOULD have run that table, with only Wisconsin registering as a solid test. And an elite team should have dominated that slate, instead of only doing so sometimes.
And a bunch of their performances just weren't that great. Wisconsin and Michigan State both did better against Iowa (and both in Iowa City), Wisconsin did light years better against Northwestern (though that was a home game for the Badgers), and Baylor did light years better against Buffalo. Heck, that's even true about their latest game, 60-35 against Illinois, as Nebraska and Wisconsin did about as well, and Michigan State did much better.
And then there's the Cal game. Compared to Ohio State, Oregon and Oregon State were way more dominant against Cal, UCLA was a good deal more dominant, and Wazzu and Washington were a bit more dominant. At some point, if you're truly elite, you simply shouldn't have a bunch of performances where people can make those kinds of remarks. Ohio State has those, without anything close to a true elite level performance. The resume just isn't there to consider the Buckeyes elite at this point in time.


5) It's been said before that schedule strength gets rewarded by Compu-Picks, and Arizona St, Washington and Georgia are continued proof of this. Each of them has a 1-A schedule rated in the top 10, and each of them is in Compu-Picks' top twenty five while being unranked (Washington and Georgia) or underranked (ASU) by the BCS.
Arizona St has played an elite schedule and done very well against it. They (controversially) beat Wisconsin, beat up USC, smoked Washington and won very comfortably at Washington State. They also lost to Notre Dame and by 14 at Stanford in a game that wasn't even that close, but overall there's a lot of resume heft there.
Washington is another good example. The Huskies annihilated a legitimately decent Boise team, won a cross-county trip to Illinois, blew out Arizona and very nearly won at a top 10 Stanford team. Their Oregon and ASU losses were obviously ugly, and the UCLA loss didn't help, but overall this has been a solid resume.
Georgia's story feels almost repetitive at this point. A solid 11 point win over South Carolina, a win over a very good LSU team, a win over Florida and a win at Tennessee (which surprisingly means something this year) are all nice add-ons to the resume. A 15-point loss at Mizzou and a 4-point loss at Vandy definitely don't help, but there's no shame at all in a 3-point loss at Clemson (who's been very good this year, just not good enough to hang with FSU) or a five point loss at Auburn that came down to a fourth down hail mary. 4 losses is 4 losses, but this is still a good team. Not quite top 10 as Vegas showed them last week, but still top 25.


6) Another thing Compu-Picks rewards is dominance, and Louisville, Baylor and Oregon are clear examples of this. Even with their (very close) loss to UCF, on average the Cardinals have been extremely dominant. Two 14-point wins, a 23-point win, a 31-poit win, a 42-point win and a 72-0 obliteration. That's a lot of ass-kicking, and while the Cardinals' schedule hasn't been good, it's still not a monumental embarrassment. Kentucky has had some good moments (such as pushing South Carolina very hard on the road), UCF has obviously been good, Rutgers isn't awful, and Ohio has been one of the better non-AQ's this year.
Baylor continues to just obliterate their schedule even as things theoretically get harder. The Oklahoma Sooners came into Waco, and many thought they could pull the upset. Instead, it was a 41-12 Bear Blowout, joining the rest of the thrashings that Baylor has delivered all year long, with only a 10 point win at Kansas State being remotely close. And then they follow it up with a 63-34 beatdown of Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, other than their loss at Stanford, the Oregon Ducks have been smoking everyone. Their closest 1-A win was by 21 points at Washington. That's ridiculous, and is a huge part of their high Compu-Picks rating. Just as importantly, Oregon's schedule has been really difficult. They had an easy home game against Cal and an easy road game at Virginia, buth just about all other 1-A opponents were, or at least should have been, challenges. But instead the Ducks just keep rolling on, except of course for the Stanford game.


7) On the flip side, it's still unclear exactly what the BCS sees in Oklahoma. The Sooners have played an utterly average schedule and have been far from dominant, beating West Virginia by just 9, TCU by just 3, Kansas by just 15, and they lost by 16 to Texas and 29 to Baylor. The BCS sees something in the Sooners, but damned if I can figure out what.
Fresno State and Northern Illinois have played utter embarrsasment schedules and only NIU has actually dominated. Neither has any individual performances close to elite level, and both have struggled in games that contenders for BCS at-large spots shouldn't, such as Fresno nearly finishing a collapse at awful Hawaii (won by 5), needing overtime to beat Rutgers by just one point (the same Rutgers that almost lost at home to Temple, that Louisville beat by 14 and that Houston obliterated), and getting taken to overtime by San Diego State. Or Northern Illinois beating awful Idaho by just 10, and Akron by just 7 at home. Neither of these teams has any business heading ot the BCS. Barring a major improvement, if either runs the table and makes the BCS, it looks like 2007 Hawaii all over again.


8) New to the BCS, but probably not for long, is Minnesota. They're a 2-loss AQ team, which is why people decided to rank them, but boy is this not impressive. They're having a special season, but it's against a below average schedule, with a lousy non-conference slate and a league draw that misses Ohio State. And they have yet to line up against Wisconsin or Michigan State. And they've been on the lucky side with their results, picking up a pair of three point wins, while their losses (especially to Michigan) have been convincing. There's good reason this team is over two touchdown underdogs at home to Wisconsin despite only being six spots behind the Badgers in the BCS.


9) One Compu-Picks rating that some people haven't liked is UCF being low, especially when they're lower than the Louisville team they beat. What gives? Part of it is Louisville's consistent dominance (the Cards' closest 1-A wins were a pair of 14-pointers), part of it is the fact that a three point head to head win (even on the road) isn't going to swamp the rest of teams' resumes, and part of it is UCF's struggles in a bunch of other games. They're 5-1 in games decided by 7 points or less, and the only times they blew anyone out came against bottom 25 teams Akron, FIU and UConn, (and FIU is currently rated 3rd worst in 1-A). Their resume is littered with okay level performances (and the Temple game, where they barely walked away with the W, is yet another one), and only the Louisville win really stands out at all. Is UCF a top 25 team? You can make a case. Are they better than Lousiville? The evidence just doesn't support it, unless for some reason you go all in on head to head and choose to ignore the rest of the resumes.


This article is subject to the Compu-Picks terms of use

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