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Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: Week 13_01

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Nov 25, 2013


Compu-Picks 2013 Analysis: rating all of the teams in college football after week thirteen

Article originally appeared at Compu-Picks.com.

As of the end of the games on Saturday November 23rd, these are the full list of Compu-Picks ratings. Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. Also, please note that the model does not consider games against AA teams; the * marks for result and schedule rankings designate that these are results and schedules solely counting games against fellow 1-A programs.


Please note that this article is continued here and here. Data supporting this article comes from cfbstats.com, , Pinnacle Sports, and others.


Rank BCS Rank Team League Rating Result Rank * Schedule Rank *
1 2 Florida State ACC 0.90 1 57
2 1 Alabama SEC 0.88 2 34
3 13 Oregon Pac-12 0.78 11 6
4 9 Baylor Big 12 0.76 4 33
5 5 Missouri SEC 0.74 7 28
6 3 Ohio State Big Ten 0.69 3 55
7 15 Wisconsin Big Ten 0.69 8 39
8 7 Oklahoma State Big 12 0.66 10 40
9 12 Arizona State Pac-12 0.64 25 3
10 8 Stanford Pac-12 0.60 18 14
11 4 Auburn SEC 0.60 19 21
12 17 Louisiana State SEC 0.59 22 12
13 6 Clemson ACC 0.58 15 36
14 NR Washington Pac-12 0.51 33 8
15 11 Michigan State Big Ten 0.49 9 72
16 10 South Carolina SEC 0.48 31 22
17 22 UCLA Pac-12 0.48 28 24
18 23 Southern California Pac-12 0.45 26 30
19 21 Texas A&M SEC 0.45 29 23
20 NR Georgia SEC 0.42 48 4
21 NR Kansas State Big 12 0.39 35 41
22 NR Arizona Pac-12 0.39 37 25
23 18 Oklahoma Big 12 0.38 24 51
24 NR Mississippi SEC 0.38 51 11
25 20 Louisville American 0.36 5 101
26 . Brigham Young Indep 0.33 41 31
27 . Virginia Tech ACC 0.32 56 17
28 . Texas Big 12 0.32 42 45
29 . Iowa Big Ten 0.30 49 37
30 19 Central Florida American 0.30 17 79
31 . Georgia Tech ACC 0.29 54 19
32 24 Duke ACC 0.29 30 63
33 . Oregon State Pac-12 0.28 58 27
34 14 Northern Illinois MAC 0.28 6 117
35 . Washington State Pac-12 0.26 72 5
36 . Vanderbilt SEC 0.26 55 35
37 . Florida SEC 0.25 66 13
38 . Utah Pac-12 0.24 84 1
39 . Miami (Florida) ACC 0.24 45 44
40 . Texas Tech Big 12 0.24 52 43
41 25 Notre Dame Indep 0.24 43 53
42 . Houston American 0.21 38 59
43 . East Carolina C-USA 0.21 12 112
44 . North Carolina ACC 0.19 46 56
45 . Michigan Big Ten 0.18 40 58
46 . Utah State Mountain West 0.16 32 80
47 . Nebraska Big Ten 0.14 44 69
48 16 Fresno State Mountain West 0.13 13 122
49 . Mississippi State SEC 0.13 81 9
50 . Minnesota Big Ten 0.12 47 61
51 . Boise State Mountain West 0.11 34 81
52 . Boston College ACC 0.10 64 49
53 . Bowling Green State MAC 0.09 14 125
54 . Buffalo MAC 0.09 20 110
55 . Texas Christian Big 12 0.09 75 29
56 . Tennessee SEC 0.08 103 2
57 . Pittsburgh ACC 0.07 68 50
58 . Marshall C-USA 0.06 16 124
59 . Ball State MAC 0.05 23 114
60 . Cincinnati American 0.04 21 119
61 . Toledo MAC 0.04 60 68
62 . Northwestern Big Ten 0.03 76 42
63 . Indiana Big Ten 0.03 85 16
64 . Navy Indep 0.03 53 74
65 . Syracuse ACC -0.01 78 46
66 . Maryland ACC -0.01 65 66
67 . North Texas C-USA -0.02 27 116
68 . UTSA C-USA -0.02 69 75
69 . Penn State Big Ten -0.02 61 71
70 . Rice C-USA -0.04 39 107
71 . Iowa State Big 12 -0.06 98 18
72 . Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt -0.07 36 118
73 . West Virginia Big 12 -0.07 94 26
74 . Florida Atlantic C-USA -0.08 59 87
75 . Memphis American -0.12 80 62
76 . Illinois Big Ten -0.12 88 47
77 . San Diego State Mountain West -0.12 62 90
78 . Western Kentucky Sun Belt -0.12 50 108
79 . Wake Forest ACC -0.13 87 52
80 . Tulane C-USA -0.15 57 103
81 . Colorado State Mountain West -0.16 67 95
82 . Arkansas SEC -0.18 104 38
83 . Middle Tennessee State C-USA -0.18 70 89
84 . Kentucky SEC -0.19 109 15
85 . Southern Methodist American -0.19 73 82
86 . Colorado Pac-12 -0.20 113 10
87 . North Carolina State ACC -0.20 97 54
88 . South Alabama Sun Belt -0.21 63 97
89 . Arkansas State Sun Belt -0.22 71 102
90 . San Jose State Mountain West -0.22 83 73
91 . Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West -0.25 77 92
92 . Rutgers American -0.28 86 78
93 . Nevada Mountain West -0.29 93 70
94 . Virginia ACC -0.30 115 20
95 . Ohio MAC -0.33 74 106
96 . California Pac-12 -0.35 119 7
97 . Kansas Big 12 -0.37 114 48
98 . Old Dominion Indep -0.37 108 64
99 . South Florida American -0.38 107 60
100 . Kent MAC -0.38 92 91
101 . Troy State Sun Belt -0.38 91 93
102 . Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt -0.41 100 85
103 . Tulsa C-USA -0.41 102 84
104 . Temple American -0.41 101 83
105 . Akron MAC -0.44 99 94
106 . Hawaii Mountain West -0.44 106 67
107 . Connecticut American -0.46 110 65
108 . Wyoming Mountain West -0.47 82 120
109 . Central Michigan MAC -0.48 89 115
110 . Texas State Sun Belt -0.48 79 123
111 . Purdue Big Ten -0.49 123 32
112 . Army Indep -0.49 96 105
113 . New Mexico Mountain West -0.51 95 113
114 . Alabama-Birmingham C-USA -0.55 112 76
115 . Georgia State Sun Belt -0.58 117 88
116 . Air Force Mountain West -0.61 111 99
117 . Louisiana Tech C-USA -0.63 90 126
118 . Western Michigan MAC -0.69 116 100
119 . Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.71 105 121
120 . Umass MAC -0.73 118 86
121 . Idaho Indep -0.77 121 77
122 . New Mexico State Indep -0.86 125 96
123 . Eastern Michigan MAC -0.86 124 98
124 . Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.91 126 104
125 . Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.91 122 109
126 . Florida International C-USA -0.93 120 111

Some thoughts on the list:


1) One fun thing I've done in prior years is track the "Compu-Picks Curse," whereby teams that Compu-Picks thinks the BCS has substantially overrated have a strong tendency to have embarrasingly bad performances (blowout losses to strong teams or outright upsets to teams they outrank in the BCS). One special highlight of this process was in 2010, when Michigan State was a regular on the list and managed to get blown out twice by two teams ranked lower in the BCS, Iowa and Alabama. One highlight this year was Miami, who got blown out by Florida State and lost to Virginia Tech on consecutive weeks while posted on this list (and then lost at Duke the next week though their rank fell far enough to avoid the "Curse").

These teams are identified by the difference between their rating and the rating of the team whose Compu-Picks rank matches their BCS rank. So for instance, Clemson is BCS #6, so their Compu-Picks score of 0.58 is compared to the Compu-Picks 6th ranked Ohio State, who has a score of 0.69. Since the difference is at least 0.10, they qualify for the "Compu-Picks Curse." The following teams make this week's list:

Auburn; Clemson; South Carolina; Michigan State; UCF; Northern Illinois; Notre Dame; Fresno State.

Results so far:

After week 12 (1-4): Ohio State (L: beat Indiana); South Carolina (N/A: AA games don't count here); UCF (L: beat Rutgers); Northern Illinois (L: beat Toledo); Minnesota (W: lost at home to Wisconsin by 13); Fresno State (L: beat up UNM).

After week 11 (1-4): Ohio State (L); Stanford (W); UCF (L); Oklahoma (L); Northern Illinois (L); Fresno State (N/A).

After week 10 (3-4): Alabama (L) ; Ohio State (N/A); Stanford (L); Auburn (L); Miami (W); Oklahoma (W); Notre Dame (W); Northern Illinois (N/A); Fresno State (L)

After week 9 (2-4): Ohio State (L); Miami (W); Oklahoma (N/a); Michigan (W); Notre Dame (L); Northern Illinois (L); and Fresno State (L).

After week 8 (1-5): Ohio State (L); Oklahoma (L); Oklahoma State (L); Michigan (N/A); Nebraska (W); Northern Illinois (L); and Fresno State (L).


2) One consistent theme that pops up when I've done these analyses the past few years is that Compu-Picks gives a lot more weight to schedule strength and dominance than does the BCS, and a lot less weight to simple W/L record and head to head. The same thing is true this time around.


3) After Baylor's and Oregon's crushing losses last week, not only is the national title race Alabama and Florida State's to lose, so is the race to the top of the Compu-Picks ratings. These have been the two most dominant teams in the country, and while neither has played anything close to an exceptional schedule, neither have any of the top ten most dominant teams.


4) Probably the most jarring result here is that Oregon and Baylor are still shown in the top ten, though they are much closer to the next two teams than they are to the top two teams. I've delved into why Compu-Picks still has these two teams materially ahead of BCS #s 3 and 4 Ohio State and Auburn in a separate feature, link here.


5) It's been said before that schedule strength gets rewarded by Compu-Picks, and Arizona St, Washington and Georgia are continued proof of this. Each of them has a 1-A schedule rated in the top 10, and each of them is in Compu-Picks' top twenty five while being unranked (Washington and Georgia) or underranked (ASU) by the BCS.


Arizona St has played an elite schedule and done very well against it. They (controversially) beat Wisconsin, beat up USC, smoked Washington and won very comfortably at Washington State. They also lost to Notre Dame and by 14 at Stanford in a game that wasn't even that close, but overall there's a lot of resume heft there.


Washington is another good example. The Huskies annihilated a legitimately decent Boise team, won a cross-county trip to Illinois, blew out Arizona, blew out Oregon State on the road, and very nearly won at a top 10 Stanford team. Their Oregon and ASU losses were obviously ugly, and the UCLA loss didn't help, but overall this has been a solid resume.


Georgia's story feels almost repetitive at this point. A solid 11 point win over South Carolina, a win over a very good LSU team, a win over Florida and a win at Tennessee (which surprisingly means something this year) are all nice add-ons to the resume. A 15-point loss at Mizzou and a 4-point loss at Vandy definitely don't help, but there's no shame at all in a 3-point loss at Clemson (who's been very good this year, just not good enough to hang with FSU) or a five point loss at Auburn that came down to a fourth down hail mary. 4 losses is 4 losses, but this is still a good team. Not quite top 10 as I've seen on some Vegas ranks, but still top 25.


6) Another thing Compu-Picks rewards is dominance, and Wisconsin and Baylor are clear examples of this.


Even with the blowout loss to Oklahoma State, on average Baylor has still been extremely dominant. They blew out Oklahoma 41-12, Texas Tech 63-34, etc. IN fact, up until the OK St loss, the only team to even stay within 10 points was Kansas State losing 35-25.


Meanwhile, Wisconsin. Talk about kicking ass and taking names. The Badgers have two losses (a controversial 2-point loss at ASU and a 7-point close game at Ohio State) and have otherwise generally been clobbering teams. They've totally taken care of business against awful UMass and Purdue teams, winning 45-0 and 41-10. They blew out Northwestern 35-6 and Illinois 56-32. They won by 19 at Iowa. They won by 13 at Minnesota. They beat a solid BYU team by 10. And they absolutely annihilated Indiana 51-3. That's a lot of dominance, even if the schedule has only been fairly mediocre.


7) On the flip side, it's still unclear exactly what the BCS sees in Oklahoma. The Sooners have played an utterly average schedule and have been far from dominant, beating West Virginia by just 9, TCU by just 3, Kansas by just 15, and they lost by 16 to Texas and 29 to Baylor. The BCS sees something in the Sooners, but damned if I can figure out what.


Fresno State and Northern Illinois have played utter embarrsasment schedules and only NIU has actually dominated. Neither has any individual performances close to elite level, and both have struggled in games that contenders for BCS at-large spots shouldn't, such as Fresno nearly finishing a collapse at awful Hawaii (won by 5), needing overtime to beat Rutgers by just one point (the same Rutgers that almost lost at home to Temple, that Louisville beat by 14 and that Houston obliterated), and getting taken to overtime by San Diego State. Or Northern Illinois beating awful Idaho by just 10, and Akron by just 7 at home. Neither of these teams has any business heading ot the BCS. Barring a major improvement, if either runs the table and makes the BCS, it looks like 2007 Hawaii all over again.


8) Back to the BCS, but probably not for long, is Notre Dame. They're a 3-loss AQ team, who hasn't played much of a schedule. They lost to Pitt and Michigan, they struggled against Purdue and Navy, and even their best wins (Michigan State, ASU, USC) were all three or four point wins. This is a team who's questionable to be in the top 25 even if you ignore margins, and when you throw in that Michigan and Oklahoma beat them by double digits, and they still haven't beaten anyone good by even a touchdown, it's hard to think they've played top 25 quality football this season. On the other hand, Stanford could be in a for a letdown in a game that almost doesn't matter for them, so you never know, the Irish could hang on to top 25 status until bowl season.


This article is subject to the Compu-Picks terms of use

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