CONFERENCE OUTLOOK
No league has a bigger chasm between the haves
and have nots. While that’s lousy for WAC fans hoping for a fun
season, it’s great for a Boise State team dreaming to be a part
of the BCS if it can beat Oregon State and Utah. Fresno State,
Nevada and Hawaii are all good enough to play with anyone in the
country for at least a half, Louisiana Tech is decent, and then
things drop off the map with San Jose State, Idaho, even with
the addition of head coach Dennis Erickson, Utah State and New
Mexico State among the worst teams in college football. More
interesting than the WAC race will be the non-conference games
with top teams facing Arizona State, Alabama, LSU, Oregon, and
Oregon State.
1. This will be the best Hawaii offense yet under
June Jones. Davone Bess leads a loaded receiving corps that’ll
blow up with QB Colt Brennan improved.
2. Fresno State will go yet another year without
winning a WAC title. 1999 is a long time ago.
3. Boise State will win games with defense, not
offense.
Nov. 25 Boise State at Nevada.
Taking away the bowl game last year in Boise, the last regular
season home loss the Broncos have suffered was in 2001 to
Washington State. That's a span of 30 games meaning it's
doubtful anyone will Boise State on the blue turf. That means
that if Nevada is as good as expected, the WAC finale could be
for the title.
Predicted record:
11-1
Conf. record: 8-0
Best Player:
LB Korey
Hall, Sr.
Offense
- If
you're looking for a big drop-off now that Dan Hawkins is gone and Chris
Peterson is running the team and not the offense, it's not going to
happen. Bryan Harsin will handle the attack and everything will keep on
humming with the WAC's best line paving the way for a good backfield and
allowing QB Jared Zabransky more time to try to get his groove back. The
receiving corps is loaded with experience and talent. If Zabransky can
cut down on his interceptions and be more efficient, 40 points a game is
an attainable goal.
Defense - It'll be a shock if this isn't the WAC's best defense.
This is the first time as a coordinator for Justin Wilcox, but he has
plenty of talent to work with thanks to several all-star caliber players
led by linebacker Korey Hall along with a deep and talented secondary.
Getting to the quarterback won't be a problem with everyone coming from
all angles to generate pressure. The run defense will put up nice stats
because there aren't many running teams on the schedule; the secondary
has to be tighter after allowing 262 yards per game.
This season will be a success if …
Boise State
gets to the BCS. It'll take 11 wins with the one loss being in a
nail-biter, but the schedule is too light and the team is too loaded to
shoot for anything less. Even if the formula doesn't end up working out
and the Broncos don't go to one of the big games, a WAC title would be
nothing to sneeze at.
Predicted record:
9-4
Conf. record: 6-2
Best Player:
WR Davone
Bess, Soph.
Offense
- Be
afraid. Be very, very afraid. Hawaii averaged 476 yards and 31 points
per game with a new quarterback and two freshmen receivers leading the
way. Now quarterback Colt Brennan is on the verge of superstardom while
top targets Davone Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen will each be among the
nation's most productive receivers. The runners are huge with 248-pound
Nate Ilaoa getting a fifth year of eligibility to be the main back for
the few times the attack wants to power the ball. The line welcomes back
three starters led by all-stars Samson Satele and Tala Esera.
Defense - Hawaii's defense doesn't have to stop anyone cold, so
if it can just not be miserable, the offense will take care of the rest.
The 3-4 alignment will show off the athleticism of the back eight, but
everyone has to be more physical. Defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville
has more speed to work with and gets some help with the return of end
Meilila Purcell and free safety Leonard Peters to 100% health after they
each had problems last year. Stopping the run will be the first
priority, but the pass defense also needs work after allowing over 250
yards per game.
This season will be a success if …
the
Warriors go back to a bowl game. With this much firepower and the WAC
schedule opening up the way it does after a brutal opening three games,
a seven win regular season is a must with an eye on nine.
T2. Nevada
Predicted record:
8-4
Conf. record: 6-2
Best Player:
QB Jeff
Rowe, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense is known for its wide open passing, but it has an effective
ground game that provides more balance than you might expect. The
running attack likely won't be more effective than the passing game for
a second straight year without leading rusher B.J. Mitchell, but Robert
Hubbard is ready to take over the number one role. Jeff Rowe will be one
of the nation's most effective all-around quarterbacks with a deep and
experienced receiving corps to throw to, but it could all unravel if
injuries strike at tackle.
Defense - The defense welcomes back eight starters and a ton of
depth to provide good competition at several spots, but now there has to
be more production. The scheme can be a 3-4 or a 4-3 depending on the
situation with more than enough size up front to be beefy against the
run and huge, but relatively slow linebackers outside of talented
strongside starter Ezra Butler. J.J. Milan is back from a foot injury to
provide more of a pass rush to help out an improving secondary that gets
Nick Hawthrone back at safety.
This season will be a success if …
Nevada wins the WAC title. It won't be easy with
road games at Fresno State, Hawaii and Louisiana Tech, but Boise State
has to come to Reno and the second half of the schedule is too nice not
to go on a run. After last year, anything less than a title would be a
disappointment.
Predicted record:
7-5
Conf. record: 6-2
Best Player:
C Kyle
Young, Sr.
Offense
-
There should be an excellent mix of a deep passing attack with a steady
running game despite the loss of top running backs Wendell Mathis and
Bryson Sumlin along with quarterback Paul Pinegar. Dwayne Wright returns
from missing most of the last two years with a knee injury to lead the
ground game, and he should run wild behind Kyle Young and a tremendous
offensive line. Paul Williams and Joe Fernandez form an excellent 1-2
receiving punch, but they need a steady passer to get them the ball.
Quarterback options Tom Brandstater, Sean Norton, and Ryan Colburn can
all bomb, but they have to prove they can be consistent.
Defense - The Fresno State defense led the WAC in every
appreciable category last year and will be close to as good despite the
loss of three All-WAC stars in DT Garrett McIntyre, CB Richard Marshall,
and FS Tyrone Culver. The linebacking corps will be the early strength
for the ultra-aggressive D with Dwayne Andrews certain to be in the hunt
for WAC Defensive Player of the Year. The secondary will be great after
the two open spots are secures, and the line should be better against
the run with a pair of 330 pounders at tackle.
This season will be a success if …
Fresno State
wins the WAC title. It has to be the goal for a program that hasn’t
gotten it done under head coach Pat Hill. Playing well against Oregon
and LSU would be icing on the cake compared to finally getting over the
hump and becoming the outright best team in the league.
Predicted record:
7-6
Conf. record: 5-3
Best Player:
WR Eric
Newman, Sr.
Offense
- The
Bulldogs aren't going to put up a ton of points and aren't equipped to
get into shootouts, but there's the potential to be very solid with a
good backfield punch of Freddie Franklin and Patrick Jackson and a
receiving corps that's deep and talented. The line doesn't have any
depth and has to replace its top two players, G Aaron Lips and C Marcus
Stewart, but the starting five should turn out to be fine. And then
there's the quarterback situation. Matt Kubik is gone making it an open
competition between Zac Champion, Michael Mosley and Joe Danna.
Defense - It'll be a year of transition for one of the WAC's
better defenses with only two starters returning, a new defensive
coordinator in Randy Bates, and major question marks in several areas.
There has to be more of a pass rush from the front three while the
relatively green corners have to be ball-hawking. The linebacking corps
loses its heart and soul in Byron Santiago and Barry Robertson, but it
shouldn't be too bad with several good, young prospects working around
Brannon Jackson in the middle.
This season will be a success if …
Tech goes
bowling. It'll have to survive seven road games in the first nine, but
things open up over the second half of the year. The WAC title is out of
the question.
Predicted record:
3-9
Conf. record: 2-6
Best Player:
RB Jayson
Bird, Soph.
Offense
-
It'll be fun to watch. Head coach Dennis Erickson and offensive
coordinator Dan Cozzetto are going to run a variety of formations using
four and five wide sets with wild pass patterns making life a nightmare
for opposing defensive coordinators to figure out. The key will be the
play of QB Steven Wichman, who has the arm and experience to put up huge
numbers. The receiving corps isn't special, but there are several
options to keep a good rotation going. The ground game won't be
neglected with the return of Jayson Bird from a collarbone injury to
team up with bruising Rolly Lumbala. The line is experienced and should
be solid if everyone is healthy.
Defense - Ex-head coach Nick Holt was a defensive coordinator by
nature and didn't leave the cupboard bare with decent prospects from a D
that got rolled over by everyone. There's plenty of speed but little
size just about everywhere. The corners could use a bit of a pass rush
to take the pressure off, and they'll get it with the defensive line
looking far-and-away more disruptive than it was last year. The
linebacking corps will be a work in progress building around Josh
Bousman on the outside.
This season will be a success if …
Idaho wins
at least four games and pulls off one good upset. Considering Idaho
hasn't won more than three games since 2000, four wins would be a nice
first step back in the Dennis Erickson era.
Predicted record:
3-9
Conf. record: 1-7
Best Player:
WR A.J.
Harris, Soph.
Offense
- The
Hal Mumme attack didn't exactly work like it was supposed to only
averaging 16.5 points and 344 yards per game, but square pegs were
trying to be forced into round holes. The biggest problem was an
offensive line that was originally recruited to run block and then had a
nightmare of a time protecting the quarterback. Last year's starting
quarterbacks are out of the mix, but most of the top receivers are
returning along with leading rusher Justine Buries. The line can't be
any worse, and at least it's experienced.
Defense - Much was made about the problems on offense last year,
but the bigger issues were with a defense that finished second-to-last
in America (ahead of only Northwestern) allowing 480 points along with
39 points per game. Step one has to be to generate a pass rush after
coming up with only seven sacks last year. You don't have a chance in
the WAC if you can't stop the pass, so the corners have to be far better
and there has to be far more than seven interceptions. There's enough
size and experience to hope for the 3-4 to be better against the run
after getting shoved around for 216 yards per game.
This season will be a success if …
the Aggies win five games. The two D-IAA games
have to be locks, there has to be at least a split on the road against
Idaho and Utah State, the home date with San Jose State is a must-win,
and there needs to be one out-of-the-blue upset to make this happen.
Predicted record:
2-10
Conf. record: 1-7
Best Player:
RB Mat
Cantu, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense was just starting to find itself over the second half of last
year and should be far more effective this season thanks to a strong
line with four returning starters led by tackle Matt Cantu. The running
game has four good options with the most talented runner of the bunch,
freshman Dominique Hunsacker, on the way. The receivers are decent, but
nothing special. The real focus will be on the quarterback situation
where it'll be a three-way battle into the fall to find someone who can
get the completion percentage to over 50%.
Defense - The Spartan defense improved immensely last season
partially because of the new coaching staff and partially because it was
a senior dominated crew. Now the D is starting from almost scratch with
only three returning starters, no size whatsoever at linebacker, a shaky
secondary that's replacing a crew that finished 116th in the nation, and
a defensive line that will have to learn on the fly. All is not
completely lost with great all-around quickness and athleticism, but the
actual football talent is questionable.
This season will be a success if …
the Spartans win six games. It'll take a few
upsets and at least two roads wins, which is harder than it sounds
without an away victory since 2003.
Predicted record:
1-11
Conf. record: 1-7
Best Player:
WR/PR
Kevin Robinson, Jr.
Offense
-
Seven starters return to an attack that needs an identity after being
consistently average all of last year scoring between 21 and 24 points
six times. The key is the ground game, which needs far more production
from the running backs. JUCO transfer Marcus Cross has to star right
away to keep QB Leon Jackson III from having to run 136 times again. The
offensive line is big and promising, but it needs work with only two
starters returning. The receiving corps is the team's strength with Tony
Pennyman and Kevin Robinson two of the WAC's best targets and need to be
used more.
Defense - The Aggies struggled through a lot of youth playing key
roles and a lot of mistakes. A lot. Despite the possibility of eight
sophomore starters, this is an experienced group that should be a little
better in all phases after allowing 406 yards and almost 33 points per
game. The biggest improvement is needed in the secondary where Terrence
Washington will look to get back his all-star form and sophomore
brothers Josh and Caleb Taylor need to perform like veterans. Finding a
replacement up front for pass rushing terror John Chick will be a
problem, but the front seven should be solid up the middle with tackles
Brian Soi and E.J. Reid and linebacker Jake Hutton.
This season will be a success if …
Utah State
wins five games. Having not won five or more games in five years, it
would be a good turnaround season to go into late November with an
outside chance of pulling off six victories
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