CONFERENCE OUTLOOK
For good and bad, the Sun Belt will be the most
even conference in the nation from one through eight. The dead
even league will have weekly battles with no such thing as a
shocking upset thanks to so much parity and so few sure things
to count on among the contenders. North Texas should bounce back
from last year’s disaster to be in the hunt again, but UL
Lafayette is the class of the conference with a ground game that
should be enough to lead the way to the New Orleans Bowl.
Florida International should be this year’s high-riser after a
strong end to the 2005 season. Arkansas State, Troy and Middle
Tennessee will have good enough defenses to stay in the title
hunt all year long.
1. After losing 26 of 27 games against other D-I
teams last year, the Sun Belt will go winless outside of the
league except for the D-IAA layups.
2. The best thing about the 2006 UL Monroe season
will be the nickname change from Indians to Warhawks.
3. North Texas RB Jamario Thomas will be a threat
for 2,000 yards behind an improved line and with all the carries
coming his way.
Nov. 25th Arkansas State at UL Lafayette. There might not be a
closer contested series of games over the last ten years than
the ones played by the Indians and the Ragin' Cajuns. Since
1997, these two have played seven times with ULL holding a 4-3
advantage with the four wins coming by a total of 11 points.
ASU's wins have been by four, six and three. The winner of this
year's showdown will likely win the conference title.
Predicted record:
7-5
Conf. record: 6-1
Best
Player:
OT
Brandon Cox, Sr.
Offense
-
Expect more of the same from the nation's seventh best rushing team with
running, running and more running. The passing attack will produce a bit
more if QB Jerry Babb doesn't miss time like last year, but there won't
be too much fun 'n' gun with Tyrell Fenroy leading a loaded backfield
that gets to run behind Brandon Cox and one of the Sun Belt's best
lines. The passing game is a question mark with the top two receivers
gone from an attack that cranked out a mere three touchdown passes.
Depth on the offensive line will be a concern early on.
Defense - Eight starters return to one of the Sun Belt's better
defenses. There isn't a lot of size, but there's plenty of production in
the front seven with linebackers Mark Risher and Brenton Burkhalter each
on the verge of all-star honors. Corner Michael Adams might only be 5-8
and 170 pounds, but he's one of the league's best all-around corners.
Being stronger against the run will be the major area of improvement,
while preventing sharp passers from dinking and dunking will also be a
priority.
This
season will be a success if …
UL Lafayette wins eight games and the Sun Belt title. No one will
stop a ground game that has to be good enough to overcome the rest of
the team's holes. This appears to be a program about to come of age.
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 5-2
Best
Player:
LB
Keyonvis Bouie, Soph.
Offense
-
There are a lot of ifs all over the place hoping for several promising
young prospects to become major factors all over the place. One area
that's not a problem is quarterback where Josh Padrick is primed for an
All-Sun Belt season while backups Tavares Kendrick and Jamie Burke could
be the best reserves in the league. There are several good, speedy backs
to count on behind a huge offensive line that should be fine by
midseason. The receiving corps needs a second wide receiver to emerge to
help out Chandler Williams and tight end Samuel Smith.
Defense - It's a good-looking young defense with great players to
build around. Keyonvis Bouie is one of the nation's most productive
linebackers and will be on the short list for Sun Belt Player of the
Year. Antwan Barnes is a tremendous pass rusher who'll be the key to the
success of the front line, while huge Jonas Murrell is growing into a
great prospect in the middle. The secondary has to be far better at
breaking up plays and can't get picked apart on short passes like it did
last season.
This
season will be a success if …
FIU
finishes second in the Sun Belt race. It'll go into the season dreaming
of winning the title, but there's not enough depth and there's still a
D-IAA level of overall talent that'll keep the promising team from
falling just short of its goal.
T3.
MTSU
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 4-3
Best
Player:
QB
Clint Marks, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense wasn't consistent and struggled mightily to get the running game
going. Expect more balance and more pop all the way around after
averaging a mere 308 yards and 19 points per game. The goal will be to
use several different formations in a wide-open attack relying on the
decision making abilities of the quarterback. That's a positive
considering Clint Marks is back for his third year under center. Eugene
Gross leads a decent group of small, quick backs who should do better
behind an improved line.
Defense - Only four starters return to the Sun Belt's best
defense, but the cupboard is hardly bare. New defensive coordinator
Manny Diaz's biggest issue is finding a tackle to replace Jeff
Littlejohn along with linebackers Dennis Burks and Jonathan Bonner. The
linebackers will be fine if J.K. Sabb is as good as he was last season,
and the line will be fine if Sean Mosley and Erik Walden can generate
consistent pressure on the ends. The secondary will be the strength with
Bradley Robinson about to be hailed as one of the Sun Belt's top
corners.
This
season will be a success if …
MTSU wins
the Sun Belt title. Finishing second means nothing in this league. It
needs to get by a nasty conference draw and has to survive three
two-game road trips.
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 4-3
Best
Player:
LB
Josh Williams, Jr.
Offense -
ASU's
offense needs some revamping in the backfield losing starting QB Nick
Noce along with over 1,700 yards of rushing production in backs Antonio
Warren and Shermar Bracey. On the plus side, the receiving corps is
loaded with experience and the line should challenge to be the best in
the Sun Belt. The quarterback situation is up in the air with Travis
Hewitt and Corey Leonard each getting their chance to take control.
Defense - It'll be a surprise if this isn't one of the Sun Belt's
best defenses thanks to a tremendous back seven led by All-Sun Belt
safeties Tyrell Johnson and Khyyam Burns. The linebacking corps goes
from being experienced and decent to experienced and tremendous thanks
to the return of star Josh Williams in the middle after being suspended
last year. The run defense has to be far more effective, and that'll
start up front where the tackles have to be more consistent. A pass rush
has to be found from the ends with starters Brian Flagg and Jonathan
Najm nursing knee injuries.
This
season will be a success if …
ASU wins
the Sun Belt title again. It'll be hard with the killer league road
slate late, but there's no turning down the expectations after last
year. This team should be able to beat anyone in the conference, but it
needs everything to come together early on to make it happen.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 4-3
Best
Player:
RB
Jamario Thomas, Jr.
Offense
- The
offense went into the tank last year with no production from the
quarterbacks and a young, inexperienced line having all kinds of
problems with its consistency. However, the running game wasn't bad and
the pass protection wasn't horrible. Things should be better this year
with Johnny Quinn leading a veteran receiving corps, Jamario Thomas
ready to be one of the NCAA's top rushers again with a veteran line to
work behind, and experienced quarterbacks that can't be any worse than
they were last season.
Defense - Last year was a disaster, especially against the run,
and now adjustments have been made to fit the personnel. With few good
linemen to work with and several great linebacker prospects, the D will
go to a 3-4 with the strength at outside linebacker thanks to Maurice
Holman and Phillip Graves. Safety will also be a positive with Aaron
Weathers and Steve Warren returning, but there are major concerns at
corner. The front three has to be much, much stronger against the run
after allowing 221 yards per game.
This
season will be a success if …
North Texas
wins the Sun Belt title. It'll be a major, major accomplishment
considering the conference road schedule, but after the past success,
nothing else but a trip to the New Orleans Bowl will do.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 3-4
Best
Player:
FS
Sherrod Martin, Jr.
Offense
- The
Trojans are going to spread things out with four receivers in an attempt
to do something, anything, to generate more than 15.9 points and 285
yards per game. JUCO transfer QB Omar Haugabook will look to resuscitate
the passing game with a good group of receivers to work with. Kenny
Cattouse leads a quick group of running backs working behind a big line
that has to be more consistent in all phases.
Defense - Troy has consistently cranked out solid defenses and
should be among the best in the Sun Belt once again despite some major
production losses. The biggest question mark early on will be at
linebacker after losing Bernard Davis and Leverne Johnson. Marcus
Richardson is an all-star caliber playmaker on the strongside, but he'll
need help. The safeties and ends should be tremendous, and there's
surprisingly good depth just about everywhere for a team that needs to
replace seven starters.
This
season will be a success if …
Troy wins
the Sun Belt title. Just about every team is coming into the season
thinking it can be the Sun Belt champs, but Troy really has a shot if
the offense is a little better and with the favorable conference
schedule.
Predicted record:
2-10
Conf. record: 1-6
Best
Player:
FS
Kenny Payne, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense has some major holes to fill needing to replace star quarterback
Steven Jyles and top targets Drouzon Quillen and Joey Trappey from the
Sun Belt's top passing game. The line will be the strength with tackle
Kyle Cunningham and guard Aaron Schutz leading the way. Calvin Dawson is
a solid back who should be the workhorse of the attack early on, but
there's little proven help behind him. The spotlight will be on new
starting quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster. While he has the athleticism of
Jyles and a big arm, he needs time.
Defense - This was hardly a rock of a defense last year, and now
the 4-2-5 needs an infusion of talent among the front six. Ricky
Williams is a nice tackle to build around, but star end Brandon Guillory
is gone and there's not a pass rusher to immediately step in and take
over. The secondary will be a major plus with four All-Sun Belt
candidates and two superstars in corner Chaz Williams and safety Kevin
Payne. Teams will try to run, run, and run some more to avoid this
group.
This
season will be a success if …
UL Monroe wins six games. This isn't as good as last year's team,
and it's still a year away from big-time success, but it's good enough
to beat Alcorn State, Florida Atlantic, and come up with a few big home
wins.
Predicted record:
1-11
Conf. record: 0-7
Best
Player:
RB
Dilvory Edgecomb, Soph.
Offense -
The
offense had a nightmare of a time putting points on the board with no
running game and inconsistency just about everywhere. It'll be a work in
progress to come up with a little improvement with a line that'll take
at least a month before it comes together, a new quarterback, likely
Sean Clayton, taking over with two new starting receivers to work with.
On the plus side, there's speed in the backfield and the receiving corps
should grow into a strength.
Defense - There might not be a younger, more inexperienced
defense in all of college football with eight underclassmen likely to
starter and a few upperclassmen with little or no playing time. There
are decent athletes and good potential at linebacker and the safeties
should be great, but it's going to be ugly until all the pieces are in
place. The biggest issue is the pass rush after generating only six
sacks last season.
This
season will be a success if …
FAU wins
four games. Forget about a win until October, but that's not to say the
Owls can't pull off a few road wins in conference play and win a few
home games to double last year's victory total.
|