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CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Auburn over Florida
The SEC might have been mediocre last year by its
own high standards, but it’s back to being the best conference
in the nation and it’s not even close. Even so, everyone appears
to be a year away from really, really, really being good. Urban
Meyer is recruiting his tail off at Florida on his way to
creating USC East, SEC champ Georgia is nasty again despite
needing to reload, Tennessee will quickly rebound with David
Cutcliffe as offensive coordinator, and LSU and Auburn belong in
the discussion of the five best teams in America. Alabama and
South Carolina won’t do what they did last year, but they’ll
still be solid. Arkansas will be back to its old bowl bound
ways, and Ole Miss and Mississippi State will be much improved.
1. Quarterback controversies. The SEC has never
had so much young quarterback talent, and they’re all ready to
play. Georgia’s Matthew Stafford, Florida’s Tim Tebow, LSU’s
Ryan Perrilloux and Arkansas’ Mitch Mustain all have NFL
potential, but all will start out on the bench.
2. Florida and LSU will each finish with two
losses despite being among the best teams in America. Most teams
would struggle to go .500 with Florida’s schedule.
3. The league will get its shots in on Steve
Spurrier. South Carolina will start out 4-2 before hitting a
scheduling wall.
September 16th LSU at Auburn.
The LSU version of the Tigers won a 20-17 thriller last season
and has to come out of the conference opener with a win or face
the daunting task of having to win in Gainesville and Knoxville
to have any hope of playing for the SEC title. If Auburn wins,
it should be 6-0 going into the showdown with Florida.
Predicted record:
10-2
Conf. record: 7-1
Best
Player:
QB
Chris Leak, Sr.
Offense
- It's
year two of the Urban Meyer offense and the pieces still aren't in place
after an uneven 2005. Quarterback Chris Leak showed more mobility this
spring and should be an even sharper passer, but super-recruit Tim Tebow
will see meaningful action and could take over if he lives up to the
hype. The receiving corps has the potential to be great as long as Andre
Caldwell returns healthy from a broken leg and Dallas Baker steps up as
the number one target. There's talent in the backfield, but no one
appears able to fit into the scheme. The big issue is on the offensive
line with only one starter returning from a group that struggled last
season.
Defense -
Most of the publicity will be focused on the offense, but
it'll be the defense that carries the Gators. The front seven should be
terrific as long as injuries don't strike the linebackers. There are
plenty of options on the line with tackle Marcus Thomas and ends Ray
McDonald, Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey all good enough to be in the
hunt for all-star honors. If corners Reggie Lewis holds up, the secondary will
be fine even after losing three starters. Safety Reggie Nelson
is about to emerge as an all-star.
This
season will be a success if …
Florida
wins the SEC title. Who cares that the offense is still at least a year
away from being up-to-Urban-snuff? Who cares that most teams would jump
for joy to go 5-7 with Florida's schedule? Anything less than an SEC
title might make the Gators this year's Tennessee.
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
OT
Arron Sears, Sr.
Offense
- Tennessee had way too much talent to average 326 yards and 18.6 points
per game last year, and changes were made in the coaching staff bringing
in former Ole Miss head coach and Tennessee offensive coordinator David
Cutcliffe to handle the offense again. Expect a night-and-day turnaround
with a speedy, veteran receiving corps, a talented workhorse running
back in Arian Foster along with an inexperienced, but lightning fast
group of reserves, and a huge line that should be rock solid despite the
return of only one starter. The big question is at quarterback where
Erik Ainge has to live up to the promise of a solid 2004 season and not
play like the shaky sophomore he was last year.
Defense - For all the problems the team had last year, the
defense couldn't be blamed finishing sixth in the nation allowing fewer
than 300 yards per game and second against the run allowing 82 yards per
outing. Now the hope has to be for all the top recruiting classes to pay
off in a big way with six of the starters on the front seven needing to
be replaced including the entire linebacking corps. Five players with
starting experience return to the secondary, but it's just an
above-average group. The real overall concern, along with the new
starters up front, is with size. This isn't a big defense by Tennessee
standards, but it's very fast and full of talented prospects.
This
season will be a success if …
the Vols
win the SEC East. After last year, anything less than an appearance in
the SEC title game will leave the sour taste of 2005 in everyone's
mouth. The schedule, athleticism, and fire are all in place for a good
season.
3.
Georgia
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 5-3
Best
Player:
DE
Quentin Moses, Sr.
Offense
- Don't expect things to be steadier with seven new starters.
While
it's a rebuilding year for the Bulldog offense, there's a good
foundation in place with one of the nation's best running back corps
thanks to the return of Thomas Brown, Kregg Lumpkin and Danny Ware. Will
they have holes to run through? It's no coincidence that Georgia won SEC
championships under Mark Richt when it had a veteran, senior dominated
offensive line, and now there's a lot of patching to be done losing
three top starters. The receiving corps has potential, but there aren't
any obvious stars needing top receiver Mo Massaquoi to be more of a
big-play target. There are enough top prospects at quarterback to
provide productive starters for four teams with senior Joe Tereshinski
the main man while super-recruit Matthew Stafford learns the ropes.
Defense - Georgia's run defense wasn't a rock last year allowing
144 yards per game, and there could be more problems early on after
losing its top three defensive tackles and needing the injury-riddled
linebacking corps to get healthy. The secondary is also an issue losing
three All-SEC performers, but the safeties should be solid led by speedy
Tra Battle. Cornerback will be a problem if Paul Oliver doesn't shine,
and depth needs developing just about everywhere. On the plus side, few
teams will be better at getting to the quarterback with ends Quentin
Moses and Charles Johnson certain to be in opposing backfields all
season long.
This
season will be a success if …
Georgia
wins ten games. It doesn't have quite enough firepower to win the SEC
title, or even the SEC East if Florida plays as well as expected and if
Tennessee rebounds, but it'll get back to a bowl game and it should have
a good chance at finishing with double-digit wins.
Predicted record:
6-6
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
WR
Sidney Rice, Soph.
Offense
- The
Gamecocks threw out of necessity last season, but there should be more
balance with Mike Davis and Cory Boyd forming a good 1-2 rushing punch
behind a line that can't be much worse. The front five had an awful
season, but there's good size and several good incoming talents to
challenge for positions. Sidney Rice leads a good receiving corps that
could use more game-breakers, while solid Blake Mitchell should be a
fine quarterback in his second year, but won't be anything special.
Defense - The defense sacrifices size for speed whenever
possible, but that only works if there are plenty of big plays from all
the athletes. Tyrone Nix has the defensive coordinator duties all to
himself now, and he's all about being aggressive and forcing big plays.
He has the speedsters in the back seven to do it, but there could be
problems against the power running teams unless JUCO transfer Jasper
Brinkley is a beast in the middle. The line is mediocre at best needing
tackle Stanley Doughty to get in shape and play up to his talent level.
Despite losing Ko Simpson, Johnathan Jackson and Tremaine Tyler, the
secondary should be fine with top corner Fred Bennett leading the way.
This
season will be a success if …
USC wins
eight games. This team isn't great, but Steve Spurrier has enough
offensive weapons to be more than competitive and crush someone’s SEC
title dreams.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 1-7
Best
Player:
RB
Rafael Little, Jr.
Offense
- The
potential is there for a little bit of a turnaround after averaging 297
yards and an inconsistent 22 points a game. The strength early on should
be an experienced line with more than enough starters and depth to be
far better. The quarterback situation will be a topic of debate all
season long with big Andre Woodson battling with the all-around talents
of 2004 super-recruit Curtis Pulley. The receiving corps needs to stay
healthy and be far more productive even though many of last year's top
producers are gone. Fortunately, do-it-all running back Rafael Little is
back to carry the offense with Tony Dixon returning from injury to
provide some much needed support.
Defense - The defense was the worst in the SEC in just about
every way imaginable and isn't about to be dominant. However, there
should be a bit of improvement with all the young players who had
mega-problems last season more experienced led by a linebacking corps
with all three starters returning and an athletic, sophomore dominated
front line. The secondary will be a work in progress with the pieces
needing to be put together around corner Bo Smith. Most importantly, the
D has to be far better against the run.
This
season will be a success if …
UK
wins six games and is better against the top teams. Anything less than
the post-season, especially with a relatively light schedule for an SEC
East team, might mean the end of the Rich Brooks era.
Predicted record:
2-10
Conf. record: 0-8
Best
Player:
WR
Earl Bennett, Soph.
Offense
-
Vanderbilt isn't going to be better without star quarterback Jay Cutler,
but it has enough overall talent to keep last year's second best SEC
offense from slipping too much. The main focus will be on the
quarterback battle between Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams. They can
both run and have good arms, but can they come through with half as many
big plays as Cutler was able to? Earl Bennett leads a nice receiving
corps, while Cassen Jackson-Garrison is a big, veteran back who'll be
used more. The real strength will be the line with two tremendous
tackles in Brain Stamper and Chris Williams to work around.
Defense - There's nothing special about this defense, and it
needs to find something that it can do really well in a big hurry. It's
a vanilla D that tried to do everything not to give up the big play, but
it needs to force more game-changing plays. There's little to no proven
pass rush and the corners have to be better, but there are things to
work around up the middle in linebacker Jonathan Goff, tackle Theo
Horrocks and safety Reshard Langford. Now someone has to start doing
something big on the outside.
This
season will be a success if …
Vandy wins five games. Forget about beating the big boys without
Jay Cutler slinging it anymore, but there’s no reason it can’t beat all
the teams its own size.
Predicted record:
11-1
Conf. record: 7-1
Best
Player:
RB
Kenny Irons, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense averaged 32.3 points per game last year, but it wasn't
consistent and ended on a sour note coming up with a surprising stinker
against Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. Despite the loss of top
tackles Marcus McNeill and Troy Reddick along with the top three
receivers and starting tight end Cooper Wallace, expect things to be
even better. QB Brandon Cox knows what he's doing, Kenny Irons leads a
deep and talented backfield, and there's more than enough explosion to
go around among the receivers. The problem is inexperience in the
receiving corps and depth on the offensive line, but neither should be a
issue unless there's a big injury problem early on.
Defense - If you liked last year's Auburn defense, you'll enjoy
more of the same. The key move is the position switch of star safety
Will Herring to linebacker, but there are players to fill in on the
weakside if the experiment doesn't work out. The D is stronger on the
outside than the middle with tremendous tackling corners David Irons and
Jonathan Wilhite returning, and defensive ends Marquies Gunn and Quentin
Groves sure to be among the league's best pass rushers. There's not a
lot of size in the linebacking corps, but that's by design going with
smaller, more athletic players. There could be big problems if there are
any early injuries at tackle.
This
season will be a success if …
Auburn wins
the SEC title. That would make it an extremely impressive two in three
years. It's not every season you get so many big conference games at
home and the Tigers must take advantage.
Predicted record:
10-2
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
FS
LaRon Landry, Sr.
Offense
-
There's speed to burn in the receiving corps, live arms abound among the
quarterbacks, and NFL talent in the backfield and on the line. Now it
has to come together after an inconsistent and slightly disappointing
season. JaMarcus Russell is the number one quarterback, but Matt Flynn
and Ryan Perrilloux are each in the hunt for meaningful playing time.
Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet will catch plenty of deep
balls if the running game improves enough to open things up. That could
be an issue with Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent each coming off torn
ACLs. The offensive line will be significantly worse than last year, but
it still should be among the best in the SEC if the three new starters
can be consistent.
Defense - Expect lots of big plays from the Bo Pelini defense
and, as always, there's enough speed and athleticism to make up for
several problems including some huge losses up front. While this might
not be the nation's number three defense again, it's not going to fall
too far if the front four can get a big season out of tackle Glen
Dorsey. Linebacker Ali Highsmith is on the verge of superstardom leading
a shaky linebacking corps that needs Luke Sanders to be healthy. Safety
LaRon Landry should be in the NFL, but he's back combining with Jessie
Daniels to form one of the nation's best safety tandems.
This
season will be a success if …
LSU wins the SEC West. It's not going to be easy, but after playing
for the title last year, anything less will be a major disappointment.
This is a national title team with a great home schedule, but 10-2 in
the regular season would be a big accomplishment with four brutal road
games.
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
RB
Darrren McFadden, Soph.
Offense
- New
offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn was brought in to pump some more life
into the offense, and to help land top quarterback prospect Mitch
Mustain. The passing game will be better if Mustain starts or redshirts,
but the real focus will continue to be on one of the nation's best
running games. Five players with starting experience return to the line
to lead the way for the tremendous backfield of Darren McFadden, Felix
Jones, and fullback Peyton Hillis. Expect more balance and even a few
three-wide sets to open things up a bit as long as a steady starting
quarterback emerges.
Defense - It's a fast defense that got better as last year went
on, and now should be great as long as there aren't major injury
problems in the back seven. The linebacking corps has speed and talent
led by All-SEC star Sam Olajabutu, but there's no depth relying on
several true freshmen to help out the top four in the rotation. Chris
Houston leads an excellent group of corners, and the safeties should be
better with lightning-fast Michael Grant moving to free safety.
300-pounders Marcus Harrison and Keith Jackson should clog up the
middle, but the ends need to generate more sacks.
This
season will be a success if …
the Hogs end up with a winning season and go to a bowl. Another
losing season wouldn't get Nutt fired, but it would put him on
double-secret probation for 2007.
Predicted record:
7-5
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
RB Ken
Darby, Sr.
Offense
- The ground game was solid, the passing game put up decent numbers, and
all the skill players had good seasons, so why was it like pulling teeth
to get into the end zone? The offensive line. More developed depth is
needed up front, but the starting five, which had so many problems with
injuries and inexperience last year, has the potential to grow into
something special. QB John Parker Wilson has to quickly develop into a
productive passer, but everything else is in place from a tremendous
stable of running backs to a good, unheralded receiving corps.
Defense - Alabama finished last year with the nation's second
ranked defense allowing a mere 255 yards per game and finished first in
scoring D allowing 10.7 points per game. Expect both of those numbers to
go way up this year, but don't expect the Tide defense to crash and burn
despite returning only four starters and losing the top stars from the
linebacking corps and secondary. Depth is a major, major issue in the
back seven, but defensive coordinator Joe Kines has a few good new
starters to work with like FS Jeffrey Dukes, LB Terrence Jones and DE
Bobby Greenwood.
This
season will be a success if …
Bama wins nine games. The home slate is too light to shoot for
anything less, and an upset or two on the road will mean another
double-digit year. Expecting to be a major factor in the SEC West race
is asking for way too much considering all the new starters on defense.
Predicted record:
6-6
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
LB
Patrick Willis, Sr.
Offense
-
Massive changes are being made to an offense that managed a mere 73
rushing yards and 13.45 points per game. Offensive coordinator Dan
Werner and offensive line coach Art Kehoe come over from Miami, QB Brent
Schaeffer comes over from Tennessee, and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes
in from Indiana. The ground game should be night-and-day better, and it
needs to be with no experience whatsoever at wide receiver. Green-Ellis
and Mico McSwain should form a solid 1-2 punch, while the mobile
Schaeffer will instantly give a boost to the rushing totals. Kehoe will
get a promising line into shape in a hurry led by tackle Michael Oher.
Defense - The defense had its moments in head coach/defensive
coordinator Ed Orgeron's first season and should be even better now with
all-everything linebacker Patrick Willis back along with one of the
SEC's best unsung secondaries. The entire front four needs to be
replaced, but that's not the end of the world with the likely emergence
of pass rusher Paria Jerry along with several promising prospects. There
could stand to be more interceptions and more sacks; the two will likely
go hand in hand.
This
season will be a success if …
the Rebels
win seven games. It'll take at least one big upset and no slip ups
against the teams its own size, but Ole Miss should be just good enough
to be able to squeak out a few more wins.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 1-7
Best
Player:
LB
Quinton Culberson, Sr.
Offense
- The offense was awful last season thanks to an inept passing game that
only averaged 139 yards per game, but things should be a bit better now
with an improved receiving corps helped by JUCO transfer Tony Burks and
former quarterback Omarr Conner in a full-time receiver role. The ground
game lost Jerious Norwood, but there are several decent backs to keep
the production from falling off the map. The play of the young, young,
young offensive line the struggled through injuries and inexperience
last year, but now it's a deep group. Quarterback will be the major
issue needing Michael Henig to complete at least half his passes and be
more consistent.
Defense - MSU's defense had a whale of a season considering the
offense provided no support whatsoever. Nine starters return from a
group that more than held its own last year finishing 29th in the nation
in total defense. One of the losses is a big one with All-SEC DE Willie
Evans gone leaving a huge pass rushing void. The secondary should be
excellent as long as the starting corners stay healthy, and the D should
be great up the middle with a deep group of tackles and Quinton
Culberson back at middle linebacker. This isn't a big defense, but
everyone can run.
This
season will be a success if …
MSU wins
six games. The defense is too good and there are too many improvements
on offense to expect another losing season. The Bulldogs won't battle
for the SEC West title, but they could be the league's jump-up team.
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