CONFERENCE OUTLOOK
Utah broke through the BCS barrier in 2004 and
TCU would’ve gotten in last year if the 2006 rules applied. Now
the league is sniffing the big-time more and more with the Utes,
Horned Frogs and BYU all dreaming, and deserving, of the major
game spotlight. This isn’t a great conference with Air Force,
UNLV and Wyoming all mediocre, but it’s the best of the
non-traditional big six BCS leagues and is sure to represent
itself well in non-conference games. Even with the disparity
between the top teams and the potential average ones, as always,
there will be several upsets along the way with San Diego State
to be stronger under new head coach Chuck Long and New Mexico
and Colorado State each good enough to go bowling.
1. There will be a weekly battle of some of the
most interesting offenses in the game. Utah, BYU and UNLV will
all run some form of the spread. Air Force will try to be more
balanced, and former UCLA head coach Bob Toledo taking over the
offensive coordinator duties at New Mexico.
2. If San Diego State RB Lynell Hamilton can
finally stay healthy, he’ll make a big push for Mountain West
Player of the Year honors.
3. No one will want to play UNLV over the second
half of the year. The addition of USC QB Rocky Hinds, JUCO WR
Aaron Straiten, USC CB Eric Wright, and UCLA CB Mil’Von James
will make the Rebels dangerous.
October 5th TCU at Utah. Running the Mountain West table is
possible if the Horned Frogs can get over the brutal road tip to
Salt Lake City. TCU won a 23-20 overtime classic last year to
launch its big season, and now Utah will be looking to do the
same. It's not an overstatement to think this might be the
Mountain West title game.
Predicted record:
11-1
Conf. record: 8-0
Best
Player:
SS
Eric Weddle, Sr.
Offense
-
Utah's offense should once again be one of the Mountain West's most
devastating thanks to an improved line, speedy receivers, and a great
quarterback situation with Brian Johnson and Brett Ratliff each good
enough to earn Player of the Year honors. The running game is the big
question mark with no proven experience and operating on a prayer that
gimpy backs like Darryl Poston and Mike Liti can get through a season
healthy. Brian Hernandez leads a very fast receiving corps that will get
better and better as the year goes on.
Defense - The defense doesn't get the publicity of the offense,
but it's effective and should be good enough to win with after finishing
second to TCU in most of the big categories. Several players are being
moved around and nothing will be set in stone with all the different
looks defensive coordinator Gary Anderson will provide. The biggest
change is the move of top safety Casey Evans to linebacker giving the
defense more of a 4-2-5 look despite really being a 4-3. Eric Weddle
will be the star of the secondary either at strong safety or corner,
while the line should be great against the run if nose guard Paul Soliai
can be strong right away.
This
season will be a success if …
the Utes win the Mountain West title. The four conference road
games are against teams that didn't go to a bowl last year. Anything
less than a championship will be a major disappointment.
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
DE
Tommy Blake, Jr.
Offense
- Ten
starters return if you count all three returning tailbacks, but there's
a problem up front with all-star Herbert Taylor the only returning
starter. QB Jeff Ballard needs to keep improving after a stellar second
half of last season by cutting down on interceptions and making even
more deep plays. The receiving corps should be fine even without number
one target Cory Rodgers, while the running back trio of Lonta Hobbs,
Robert Merrill and Aaron Brown should be the best in the Mountain West.
Defense - Seven starters return to the Mountain West's best
defense after forcing a nation-leading 40 turnovers and holding teams to
108 rushing yards per game. Take away the wild 51-50 overtime shootout
with BYU and the Horned Frog defense allowed a mere 15.7 points per
game. The defensive line should be unreal when it comes to getting into
the backfield thanks to the return of ends Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz,
but there will be early concern over the new tackles. Cornerback is a
worry for the secondary needing seniors Vernon Russell and Mike Salvage
to shine right away. Things are rock-solid up the middle with a great
linebacking corps and excellent safeties.
This
season will be a success if …
TCU repeats
as Mountain West champions. With all the returning talent and all the
success of last year there's no reason to expect less. A spot in the BCS
is an attainable goal if there’s an early win over Texas Tech.
T2.
BYU
Predicted record:
8-4
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
QB
John Beck, Sr.
Offense
-
While BYU technically uses the spread offense and certainly has the
ability to run the ball with Curtis Brown and an NFL-sized offensive
line, this is a passing attack. John Beck is mobile, but he's a bomber
with a good array of weapons to work with. Brown is a fantastic
receiver, and tight end Jonny Harline is one of the nation's best. Now
the wide receivers have to step up with the loss of deep threat Todd
Watkins. This is an offense that can score in bunches, but it can't bog
down like it did at times. With more experience in the system, the
attack should be more consistent.
Defense - The 3-3-5 is gone in favor of a 3-4 defense, and that's
a positive considering the strength of the D is at linebacker. Head man
Bronco Mendenhall is a defensive coach and will look to get far more
production, but there isn't a whole bunch of talent. Linebacker Cameron
Jensen is a playmaker and there are a few good defensive backs, but this
group will have to be prepared to be in plenty of shootouts.
This
season will be a success if …
the Cougars
come in second in the Mountain West. This is a relatively lofty goal
considering the defense is mediocre at best and with road trips to TCU
and Utah. The offense will simply outbomb everyone else.
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 4-4
Best
Player:
RB
Kyle Bell, Jr.
Offense
-
Colorado State turned into a passing team last year finishing 16th in
the nation averaging 286 yards per game, but the ground game, when Kyle
Bell was held in check, went kaput. Now there should be more of a
balance with the passing attack going to be a little worse with Caleb
Hanie taking over for Justin Holland at quarterback and without star
receiver David Anderson to make big play after big play. The line is too
big and too strong to not blow open bigger holes for Bell and the
running game.
Defense - If you were hoping for a rebound after a disastrous
2004, you had a long year. The Ram defense struggled to tackle, didn't
generate enough pressure in the backfield, and basically got beat on by
anyone who dared to try. There's hope for improvement with a decent
group of veteran starters returning and helped by Ben Stratton coming
back to the secondary after missing last year with a knee injury. The
defensive backs are excellent, but the defense won't improve unless the
linebacking corps plays night-and-day better and the smallish defensive
line holds up against power running teams.
This
season will be a success if …
CSU
finishes second in the Mountain West. There are issues from depth
problems on the offensive line to a lack of a proven number one receiver
to all the major concerns with the run defense.
Predicted record:
6-6
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
OT
Robert Turner, Sr.
Offense
- The
New Mexico offense has always been effective, and now it could be
explosive with the addition of former UCLA head coach Bob Toledo to run
the attack. He has a veteran leader in Kole McKamey to run things, but
he's missing New Mexico's all-time leading rusher, DonTrell Moore, and
top receiver Hank Baskett. Martelius Epps and Rodney Ferguson are good
backs who should keep the running game rolling behind a humongous line
full of veterans. The receiving corps has potential if Marcus Smith
plays up to his skills and Travis Brown develops into a number one
target.
Defense - The whole is better than the sum of the parts. The line
isn't big, the secondary isn't particularly fast, and there isn't a big
run stuffer anywhere, but the defense always produces. Well, almost
always. The secondary had problems last year and the D gave up an unLobo-like
29.7 points per game. There should be more big plays with outside
linebackers Cody Kase and Quincy Black about to grow into stars, and
safeties Blake Ligon and DeAndre Wright about to go from being green
freshmen to dynamite sophomores. The concerns are at corner and with
size up front with the tackles going around 250. However, New Mexico's
system usually produces results.
This
season will be a success if …
the Lobos
finish second in the Mountain West. They're not as good as TCU or Utah,
but they get the two big games at home and have enough overall talent to
be in the hunt for the title until the final day.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
QB
Shaun Carney, Jr.
Offense
- Air
Force passed the ball better and more effectively than it had in a long
time with Shaun Carney emerging as an efficient starter. Now the job
will be to get more out of the running game that only averaged 4.6 yards
per carry. The Falcons finished eighth in the nation averaging 247
rushing yards per game, but it has to average more than 275 per outing
to beat the big boys. Carney needs to be more effective at getting big
plays from the backs, but that could be tough with an average group of
runners and an even more pedestrian receiving corps (at least compared
to last year). The line will be fine despite losing great blockers Jon
Wilson and Ross Weaver.
Defense - The defense has been awful over the last two seasons
and there's no immediate sign of a huge improvement. Overall, the
Falcons have to force more turnovers and not give up so many big plays,
but both will only happen with more of a pass rush. The strength is at
tackle where Gilberto Perez and Grant Thomas should be the best the team
has had in a while. There's no depth at linebacker and the ends are
small and unproven pass rushers. There are several corner options and a
star in free safety Bobby Giannini to hope for a big improvement in the
secondary.
This
season will be a success if …
Air Force has a winning season. This is probably no better than the
sixth or seventh best team in the conference, but the schedule works out
nicely with only three games (at Tennessee, Notre Dame and at TCU) that
it likely has little chance of winning.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 2-6
Best
Player:
RB
Lynell Hamilton, Jr.
Offense
- New
offensive coordinator Del Miller brings 25 years of experience with his
most recent stint at Kansas State, but this is Chuck Long's offense.
It's not going to be a night-and-day different offense with plenty of
four-wide sets and plenty of spread-it-out passing. However, the focus
of the attack will be on the running game with a next-level talent in
Lynell Hamilton to work with. The offensive line will be a work in
progress until the coaching staff figures out where to put everyone.
Kevin O'Connell is one of the Mountain West's best all-around
quarterbacks, but he'll have work to do with a young receiving corps
that needs a little time.
Defense - The defense had a hard time coming up with consistent
production last season, but it should be better with eight returning
starters and a great cornerback combination in Terrell Maze and Donny
Baker. Overall, better run defense is a must after finishing
next-to-last in the Mountain West allowing 185 yards per game. End
Antwan Applewhite is one of the Mountain West's best pass rushers, but
the defense needs to produce more than the 17 sacks of last year. The
linebacking corps could quickly turn into something special if Andrew
Shantz shines as the new starter in the group.
This
season will be a success if …
the Aztecs win eight games. It's not that lofty a goal if the new
coaching staff can get a little more production out of the run defense
and more efficiency and consistency out of the offense.
Predicted record:
3-9
Conf. record: 2-6
Best
Player:
QB
Eric Wright, Jr.
Offense
- The
Rebel Shotgun Spread went through some major growing pains in its first
year hurt mostly by a wrist injury to starting QB Shane Steichen. Now
it'll be a battle between Steichen and USC transfer Rocky Hinds to run
the attack, but that's hardly the only position battle. 5-6 Erick
Jackson is firmly entrenched as the starting running back with five
options behind him looking for playing time. The receiving corps is more
talented even after losing three of its top four wide receivers, while
the line is experienced with eight recruits on the way to push for
starting spots. Essentially, it's an experienced offense with a major
influx of very, very young talent that'll get every chance to play.
Defense - The defense was decent against the run and had problems
against the pass, but that should quickly change with the addition of
USC's Eric Wright, UCLA's Mil'Von James, and Oklahoma's Tony Cade to the
secondary. The front three needs to find ends who can rush the passer
with Howie Fuimaono sure to be on of the Mountain West's best anchors in
the middle. The linebacking corps has Beau Bell and the hope for a few
JUCO transfers to come through. Expect the schemes and formations to
change wildly throughout the season depending on the emergence of all
the new additions.
This
season will be a success if …
the Rebels win six games. There’s still a long way to go
talent-wise and the early schedule is way too tough to hope for any sort
of run for a conference title, but that doesn't mean the improved team
can't be in the hunt for a bowl game.
Predicted record:
3-9
Conf. record: 2-6
Best
Player:
SS
John Wendling, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense went in the tank as the season went on plagued by turnovers and
no consistency. The normally pass-happy one-back attack could take a
little bit of a turn with four excellent running back options working
behind an experienced line, while the passing game will try to retool
without star receiver Jovon Bouknight and without any quarterbacks named
Bramlet. Jacob Doss has an inside line on the starting job, but he'll
have plenty of competition and will have to look over his shoulder at
Karsten Sween, Stinson Dean, and JUCO transfer Ian Hetrick.
Defense - Wyoming will move from a 4-3 to a 3-4 to take advantage
of all its linebacker talent, but it'll still mix in a Buck linebacker
to rush the passer like an extra end. The D wasn't all that bad last
year, but it got worse as the season went on and was never clutch. It'll
take a little while to get any sort of groove back with two new corners
and not enough speed in the linebacking corps. While the front seven
won't get steamrolled over, it's not going to stop anyone cold. John
Wendling will be in the hunt for defensive player of the year honors
moving over from free safety to strong safety.
This
season will be a success if …
UW gets to
a bowl game. If the team is any good, it should beat Utah State, Air
Force and San Diego State, and it needs to win road games at Syracuse,
New Mexico and UNLV. A big upset here or there will also be a must.
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