Predicted Conference
USA Championship
Southern Miss over UTEP
Conference Outlook
Is this going to be the most wide-open conference race in all of
college football? Tulsa and UCF played in last year’s
championship game, but they’re hardly a lock to win their
respective divisions with Southern Miss, UTEP and Houston each
appearing to be more stable than last season. If UCF can go from
worst to almost first, and Tulsa can come out of nowhere, then
it shouldn’t be a shock if a rising program like East Carolina
or Marshall pulls off the East title. SMU is on the verge of
respectability and Memphis should be a factor from start to
finish. The overall level of play should be raised with plenty
of offensive stars, and unlike past years, a little more defense
from teams like UTEP, Houston and UCF. Basically, expect a whole
bunch of fun.
1. The West will be the far weaker of the two divisions thanks
to Tulane and Rice. SMU, despite being better, would likely
finish last in the East. Even so …
2. … the West will have loads of firepower thanks to all the
veteran quarterbacks. UTEP’s Jordan Palmer, Houston’s Kevin
Kolb, Tulsa’s Paul Smith and Tulane’s Lester Ricard will put up
points in bunches.
3. Memphis will obviously miss RB DeAngelo Williams, but Joseph
Doss is a quick back who’ll put up huge yards while Jamarcus
Gaither and T.J. Pitts will each have some big days.
Oct. 21 UTEP at Houston.
The Cougars and Miners each have tremendous firepower led by
their great quarterbacks. Houston’s Kevin Kolb and UTEP’s Jordan
Palmer will battle it out for the upper hand in the West
Division race.
Predicted record:
7-5 Conf. record:
6-2
Best Player:
OG George Batiste, Sr.
Offense
- USM
was all pass and no run last season, and while the team appears to want
more of a balance, it hasn't happened despite several efforts over the
last few years. However, the personnel is in place to produce much more
on the ground with mobile quarterback Jeremy Young taking over for the
solid Dustin Almond. Helping the cause will be the veteran rushing punch
of Larry Thomas and Cody Hull running behind a talented offensive line
with four starters returning. The receiving corps has the potential to
be among the best in Conference USA with six good targets along with
tight end, and last year's leading receiver, Shawn Nelson. The problems
will kick in if there are any injuries up front and/or if Young
struggles with his accuracy.
Defense - The Southern Miss D is coming off a strange season when
it led Conference USA in sacks and scoring defense, but gave up a ton of
yards and struggled way too much stopping decent passing teams. You know
what you're going to get this year; lots of aggressive plays, lots of
turnovers, and lots of big performances. The secondary is deep and
experienced, and now it needs a few players to become all-star caliber
performers. Despite the loss of all-everything star Kevis Coley, the
linebacking corps has the potential to be special with six great players
in a solid rotation. The line will be the concern early on until three
new starters get their feet wet and more depth develops.
This season
will be a success if …
Southern Miss wins
the Conference USA title. This is one of the few league programs that
can honestly shoot for the big prize each and every year. Another New
Orleans Bowl appearance will be a major disappointment.
Predicted record:
6-6 Conf. record:
6-2
Best Player:
WR Aundrae Allison, Sr.
Offense
- The
Skip Holtz/Steve Shankweiler offense was surprisingly consistent and
effective last year with a dangerous passing game that kept the chains
moving. With seven returning starters including most of the top skill
players, there's hope for things to really shine. However, three
starters on the line need to be replaced, and the top wide receiver (Aundrae
Allison) and running back (Chris Johnson) are coming off big injuries.
Quarterback James Pinkney should be in for a huge year with the weapons
around him to put up big numbers.
Defense - The defense improved by leaps and bounds shaving off
more than ten points and 50 yards per game off the average, but there
still wasn't any production against the run finishing 113th in the
nation against the run. Thee JUCO transfer will push for the starting
linebacker jobs, while the front four should have enough experience and
size to be better. The secondary will be a strength with the return of
safety Jamar Flournoy and the emergence of corner Kasey Ross.
This season
will be a success if …
ECU
finishes with a winning year and goes to a bowl. If it's going to
happen, there needs to be a hot start and a few upsets over the second
half of the year. Pirate fans are still trying to erase memories of the
last post-season appearance, the 64-61 loss to Marshall in the GMAC
Bowl.
3. UCF
Predicted record:
6-6 Conf. record:
5-3
Best Player:
RB Kevin Smith, Soph.
Offense
- UCF
made a night-and-day improvement from the year before helped immensely
by the play of QB Steven Moffett and the arrival of star back Kevin
Smith. Everything is in place for a huge season with all five starters
returning to the line, a deep and talented backfield, and a good group
of quarterbacks led by Moffett, the team's leader. The only concerns are
pass protection and finding a reliable number two receiver to take the
pressure off Mike Walker.
Defense - UCF underwent an overhaul of talent last year basically
throwing out all the veterans and starting from scratch in the back
seven with freshmen. The D didn't stop anyone, but the move unearthed
some potential superstars in the secondary led by corner Joe Burnett and
safety Jason Venson setting the foundation for a potential fantastic
defense either this year or next. There should be a big step up in
overall production as long as there aren't the same mistakes made last
year. The front four has to figure out how to generate a pass rush
without Paul Carrington to rely on anymore.
This season
will be a success if …
UCF gets
back to a bowl game. Yeah, it'll be title or bust with the way last
season went, but the schedule is too tough to demand or expect a second
straight East championship. Another eight win season would better than
the team would be fantastic.
Predicted record:
6-6 Conf. record:
4-4
Best Player:
FS Wesley Smith, Sr.
Offense
- It's
hard to lose a back like DeAngelo Williams and be better, but that might
be exactly what happens to Memphis thanks to the return of quarterbacks
Patrick Byrne and Will Hudgens from broken legs and the emergence of
JUCO transfer Martin Hankins as the probable starter. Maurice Avery
filled in admirably last year, but he didn't bomb away and he wasn't
able to utilize all the tall, fast receiver targets like the current
quarterbacks can. All five starters return to an outstanding offensive
line that'll pave the way for a big season from new starting RB Joseph
Doss. There are several talented backs ready to work into the rotation
to replace Williams' production.
Defense - The D had is moments last year doing a great job
against mediocre offenses but struggling mightily with good passing
games and high-octane attacks. Pass defense has been the problem for the
last few years, but there's hope for an improvement with five returning
starters led by All-American Wesley Smith. The linebacking corps loses
its top two tacklers, but gets a big boost with the return of Quinton
McCrary on the outside. The three man line should be able to get to the
quarterback and has decent size against the run.
This season
will be a success if …
Memphis wins the East. There are too many holes to fill and too
much overall uncertainty on defense to demand a conference title
considering how strong the West is, but there's no reason the Tigers
can't win the East. The schedule and the firepower on offense should be
enough to get it done.
Predicted record:
5-7 Conf. record:
4-4
Best Player:
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Jr.
Offense
-
Could that really have been the Marshall offense? It was the worst
scoring attack in Conference USA averaging a mere 18.55 points per game
getting inconsistent quarterback production and no push for the running
game from the offensive line. There's hope for a big improvement with
four starters returning up front, Bernie Morris and Jimmy Skinner back
at quarterback, the top three wide receivers returning along with
speedster Emanuel Spann, and running back Ahmad Bradshaw good enough to
be in the mix for all-star honors.
Defense - Head coach Mark Snyder is a defensive coach and should
have things in shape soon. It might take a little while more with three
new starters needed in the secondary and a run defense needing to
improve after a lousy 2005. The line has the potential to be far better
with 300-pounders Juan Underwood and Chris Terrell able to clog up the
middle, and rising star Albert McClellan on the outside. The linebacking
corps should be a strength if Brandon Souder shines in the middle
allowing last year's top two tacklers, Matt Couch and Dennis Thornton,
to combine on the weakside.
This season
will be a success if …
Memphis
wins the East. While it’s a tall order considering all the uncertainty
on defense, the schedule and the firepower on offense should be enough
to come close.
Predicted record:
4-8 Conf. record:
3-5
Best Player:
LB Larry McSwain, Sr.
Offense
- UAB
has to go on without leader Darrell Hackney at quarterback, but the
bigger concern might be at wide receiver after losing Reggie Lindsey and
Jhun Cook. Norris Drinkard is a good number one receiver, and now he has
to be explosive. The running game, unlike last year, should dominate
with a big, talented offensive line led b tackles Cornelius Rogers and
Julius Wilson. Corey White and Dan Burks are back leading a good
backfield. Of course, all eyes will be on the quarterback situation,
where Chris Williams has to use his mobility and practice experience to
keep the offense moving like Hackney did.
Defense - There will be plenty of position battles before the
season opener with new defensive coordinator Rick Christophel keeping
all his options open in the Blazer 4-3. Short on stars but long on
experience, there are several jobs still up for grabs, especially in the
secondary. Kevin Sanders appears to be ready to star at one corner spot
while Chris Felder and Will Dunbar have to be solid at the safeties.
Linebacker is solid with five good veterans returning, and there should
be more of a pass rusher with all-star end Larry McSwain back. Size up
front is an issue.
This season
will be a success if …
UAB wins
the East. It's dreaming big for a team that's not nearly as complete or
as strong as several others in Conference USA, but it should be in the
mix for the East title until late November. The sky's the limit if the
quarterback situation becomes a positive.
WEST DIVISION
Predicted record:
8-4 Conf. record:
6-2
Best Player:
QB Jordan Palmer, Sr.
Offense
-
It'll be another year of bombing away after finishing ninth in the
nation in passing offense while averaging 32 points per game. Jordan
Palmer is back for his fourth year as the starting quarterback with the
talent, experience and arm to have another big season, but he has to cut
down on his interceptions. The receiving corps should be better than
ever with Johnnie Lee Higgins the veteran leading a relatively
inexperienced but very promising group. RB Marcus Thomas has the
potential to be an all-star behind an average line that won't be a
liability.
Defense - The defense melted down over the second half of last
season and needs to be far more productive with nine starters returning.
The linebacking corps should be excellent with top two tacklers Jeremy
Jones and Troy Collavo returning, while the secondary will be one of the
most productive in the conference once the corner situation is settled.
Alex Obomese leads a good line that should be better if tackles Zach
West and Justin Hanel can stay healthy.
This season
will be a success if …
UTEP wins the Conference USA title. Tulsa might
be the league's best team, but UTEP is hardly going to whither as the
second banana despite away games at Houston and Tulsa as part of a
stretch of four conference road trips in five weeks.
Predicted record:
8-4 Conf. record:
5-3
Best Player:
LB Nick Bunting, Sr.
Offense
- It's
not going to be the most explosive offense around, but it'll be steady
and very, very effective with seven returning starters to an attack that
led the league with a 33-point average. Expect another good year thanks
to the return of QB Paul Smith and four very good starters to what
should be an improved offensive line. The loss of leading rusher Uril
Parrish won't hurt with the three-headed monster of Brandon Diles,
Tarrion Adams and Oklahoma transfer Courtney Tennial making the ground
game stronger. The big problem is at receiver losing All-America TE
Garrett Mills and top WR Ashlan Davis.
Defense - If this isn't the best defense in Conference USA, it'll
be close. The linebacking corps is terrific with six great options and
an all-star cast among the front three led by Nick Bunting on the
strongside and Nelson Coleman in the middle. The secondary could be even
better thanks to the return of big hitting safety Kedrick Alexander
along with All-Conference USA safety Bobby Blackshire and corner Nick
Graham. There's plenty of room to tinker in the 3-3-5 alignment with
enough size up front to play a true 4-3 against the run and enough speed
and size among the backup linebackers to add another speed rushing end
to the mix.
This season
will be a success if …
Tulsa wins the Conference USA title. This is the
league's best team and anything less than a second straight championship
will be seen as a failure no matter what else the team does.
Predicted record:
7-5 Conf. record:
5-3
Best Player:
QB Kevin Kolb, Sr.
Offense
- The nation's 19th best offense should put up yards and points in
bunches this season with a tremendous receiving corps and fourth-year
starting quarterback Kevin Kolb to deliver the ball. The key will be
consistency as well as finishing off drives. The Cougars averaged 439
yards per game last year, but averaged a pedestrian 28 points per
outing. The ground game will be a work in progress with Jackie Battle a
good, pounding running back, but not necessarily a dangerous threat to
crank out big yards. Depth is a problem on the offensive line and
quarterback, but not at receiver where the second team would still form
one of Conference USA's best corps.
Defense - Ten starters return to a defense that was inconsistent
throughout last year, but should be better, especially in the back eight
of the 3-4 defense with star FS Will Gulley returning after missing all
of last year. The switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4 helped improve the run
defense, but it still wasn't a rock allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 177
yards per game. That should improve thanks to a deep and talented
linebacking corps, while the defensive line has some good young
sophomores in Cody Pree and Phillip Hunt to get excited about.
Generating more of a pass rush is a must after coming up with 17 sacks
last year.
This season
will be a success if …
Houston wins the Conference USA title. There
won't be the same mix of starting experience and a favorable schedule
for a long time. The first ten-win season since 1990 is also an
attainable goal.
Predicted record:
5-7 Conf. record:
2-6
Best Player:
RB DeMyron Martin, Soph.
Offense
- The
offense started to come on by the end of last year and has the potential
to finally start scoring on a regular basis if new QB Justin Willis
plays up to the prep hype. There will be a variety of formations with
the ability to go to four and five wide sets to run the spread and then
quickly adjust to a regular pro-set using a "U End" as a fullback/tight
end. Bobby Chase leads a good-looking receiving corps, but the strength
is in the backfield where DeMyron Martin leads a deep, speedy group of
runners. The line will be fine by the middle of the year once some depth
starts to develop.
Defense - Head coach Phil Bennett is all about the defense, and
his turned into a solid one as last year went on. The speed and
athleticism is finally there to run things the way Bennett would like
with more aggressiveness and more forced turnovers, but it might take a
little while to fully jell with little experience in the back seven.
Safety Joe Sturdivant and linebacker Wilton McCray are nice pieces to
build around. The line should be dominant with tackle Adrian Haywood and
end Justin Rogers among the best in the league.
This season
will be a success if …
SMU has a
winning season. There are way too many holes to win the West, but the
schedule is nice enough to expect seven wins and a possible bowl bid. At
the very least, it would be a disaster if this is another losing season.
Predicted record:
3-9 Conf. record:
2-6
Best Player:
QB Lester Ricard, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense struggled way too much last season with no consistent ground
game and not enough from the passing attack. This is a team built on
getting into shootouts, and it wasn't able to keep pace. The talent is
there at quarterback with Lester Ricard needing a bounce-back year, and
he'll have targets to throw to with Preston Brown, Damarcus Davis, Brian
King and Kenneth Guidroz all able to produce. Matt Forte is a
nice-looking back who needs more work behind a line that can pass
protect, but can't blow anyone off the ball.
Defense - The defense finished third in the league last season
despite getting next to no production against the run and not enough of
a pass rush. This year, the line has too many veterans and too much
experience not to be better. The defensive back seven will have major,
major problems early with only one returning starter and not nearly
enough size to handle the more physical teams. Forcing more turnovers is
a must after taking it away only 14 times.
This season
will be a success if …
Tulane wins six
games. It's not going to be easy with seven road games that the Green
Wave will likely be underdogs in. It's going to require being nearly
perfect at home and getting a road upset to get to .500.
Predicted record:
0-12 Conf. record:
0-8
Best Player:
S Chad Price, Sr.
Offense
- Rice
intended to mess with a version of the spread offense last year, but it
never really happened as the offense finished dead last in the country
in passing and 115th in pass efficiency. New head coach Todd Berry and
offensive coordinator Major Applewhite have their work cut out for them
as they try to make all the pieces fit. Fortunately, they're coaching
players smart enough to figure out what they're supposed to be doing and
should still be able to use the running abilities of the old days. The
big key will be efficient play from QB Chase Clement right away, but he
only completed 43% of his throws last season. RB Quinton Smith will be
the featured player early on working behind a decent line.
Defense - New defensive coordinator Paul Randolph has plenty of
experience to work with, but he has to get far more production out of a
D that finished near the bottom in just about every major category and
was steamrolled over by any running game with a pulse. On the plus side,
things got better as the year went on after allowing 45.7 points per
game over the first seven. The hope is for quickness to overcome the
lack of size in the back eight of the 3-3-5 alignment with the strength
likely to be in the secondary led by safeties Andray Downs and Chad
Price. Up front, a replacement is needed for all-star John Syptak and
some semblance of a pass rush needs to emerge.
This season
will be a success if …
Rice comes
up with three wins. It came close to beating UCF and UTEP over the
second half of last season and it beat Tulane, but it's going to take
big upsets to come close to winning more than a few games.
|