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CONFERENCE OUTLOOK
The Big Ten might not be as good overall as it
has been in past seasons, but it’s not going to be the walk in
the park for Ohio State that many think it will. With several
good veteran quarterbacks returning and plenty of parity, expect
plenty of scoring and lots of unpredictability from the even
league. Michigan State, Minnesota and Purdue aren’t going to be
in the Big Ten title chase, but each has the type of attack that
could blow up and ruin someone’s dream season. Even the
potential cellar-dwellers, Indiana, Illinois and Northwestern,
will be dangerous. Expect weekly drama as high as any conference
in the country with Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State and Michigan
locked in a tremendous battle to see who can be in the BCS
dance.
1. Welcome to a leaner, meaner, angrier Michigan.
These aren’t the bruising Wolverines of the past. This is Lloyd
Carr’s most athletic team yet.
2. For the third straight season, Wisconsin will
start out red-hot and get flattened in November. 9-1 is possible
before facing Penn State and a road trip to Iowa.
3. Ohio State won’t slip much in the defensive
back seven despite all the huge losses. The secondary will be
tremendous as the season goes on.
Sept. 30 Ohio State at Iowa
An Iowa win in Kinnick Stadium over the Buckeyes would likely
mean it's a one game season (October 21st at Michigan) for the
Big Ten title. Ohio State will be coming off a tough battle with
Penn State and could be walking into a bear trap.
Predicted record:
11-1
Conf. record: 7-1
Best
Player:
QB
Drew Tate, Sr.
Offense
- The
Iowa offense will be much like the 2005 version with balance, occasional
explosion, and a few moments of baffling rough spots. There won't be
many down moments if Drew Tate is a Big Ten Player of the Year caliber
quarterback he's supposed to be, but he can't get banged up. Albert
Young leads a talented backfield that should combine for close to 2,000
yards behind a talented line with a nice mix of steady veterans and
great young prospects. The receiving corps is fast but inexperienced;
while the tight ends will be the stars right away with three great
options.
Defense - The strengths of last season are the concerns of this
year, and vice versa. The Hawkeye D had to replace one of the nation's
top lines, and now the front four should be among the best in the Big
Ten. The 2005 linebacking corps was among the best in the country, and
now big-time replacements are needed. The corners were strong last year
and safety was the question mark, and now, you guessed it, the opposite
is true. The run defense should be great even after losing all-star
linebacker Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge thanks to a big, quick, and
very active front four that should be special over the next two seasons.
The pass defense needs some tightening, but that might not happen for a
while until the new corners get settled.
This
season will be a success if …
the Hawkeyes win 11 games and comes up with at least a share of the
Big Ten title. They’ll be favored in every conference game but two (at
Michigan and home against Ohio State).
Predicted record:
10-2
Conf. record: 7-1
Best
Player:
QB
Troy Smith, Sr.
Offense
-
Good-bye Tressel ball, and hello Tressel ball with a kick. QB Troy Smith
should make the spread offense sing making big play after big play with
his legs as well as his arm. The receivers are big, fast, and talented
with Ted Ginn Jr. appearing to be ready to blossom into a superstar
wideout. The backfield is full of talent with star freshman Chris Wells
ready to push possible All-Big Ten runner Antonio Pittman. The line
might be the best in the Jim Tressel's six years in Columbus with a
world of talent, especially at tackle.
Defense Ohio State loses a slew of superstars and top NFL draft
picks from the nation's number five defense, but it's unlikely to slip
much with a tremendous array of athletes ready to step in. There's no
reason whatsoever to worry about the back seven that has to replace all
its starters. The secondary looked fantastic at times this spring with
enough 4.4 speedsters to keep the NFL scouts drooling, but it has to
come up with more than the six interceptions last year's crew helped
pick off. The linebacking corps has seven good options to rotate with a
good mix of hard-nosed run stoppers to speedy outside defenders. The
line needs to come up with a steady pass rush, but that's nitpicking;
All-America tackle Quinn Pitcock and the boys will be a rock against the
run.
This
season will be a success if …
the
Buckeyes play for the national title. The schedule is too favorable and
the Texas games comes just early enough that anything less than a game
on January 8th, 2007 in Glendale, Arizona will be a major
disappointment.
T3.
Michigan
Predicted record:
10-2
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
RB
Mike Hart, Jr.
Offense
- The
offense was a major disappointment last year finishing ninth in the
league in total offense with inconsistency on the line and banged up
running back Mike Hart the main reasons for the problems. New offensive
coordinator Mike DeBord isn't going to change things up too much, but
the call has gone out that everyone has to be in better shape. The line
has trimmed down and should be more athletic, and the backs appear to be
the most fit they've been. The passing game needs Steve Breaston to
finally play like a number one receiver, while Mario Manningham should
emerge as more of a star with quarterback Chad Henne getting better and
better. If Henne goes down, watch out. There's no quarterback depth
whatsoever.
Defense - New defensive coordinator Ron English will be the man
under the microscope as he attempts to unwrap the athleticism and talent
that have been hiding behind the just-safe-enough-to-get-beat D. There
won't be wild blitz schemes or anything crazy, but there will be a bit
more aggressiveness in an attempt to come up with more big plays. The
potential is there to be great with a fast back seven with too many good
safeties to get on the field at once. The line should be better with the
likely emergence of Alan Branch as a star tackle and LaMarr Woodley
about to blow up as a pass rushing terror on the outside.
This
season will be a success if …
Michigan
wins 11 games and beats Ohio State. The schedule has too many problems
to go unbeaten, but the team is good enough to be in the hunt for a huge
year.
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 6-2
Best
Player:
LB
Paul Posluszny, Sr.
Offense
-
Anthony Morelli will be fine. The highly touted prospect should be a
steady, productive quarterback with some fantastic receivers to throw to
and two veteran running backs to hand off to. Tony Hunt is an unsung
producer who should crank out another 1,000-yard season even with Austin
Scott getting a little more work. Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and
Jordan Norwood forms one of the nation's best young receiving corps. The
offensive line will be an issue with only one returning starter, but
that one, tackle Levi Brown, is among the best around. The attack won't
crank out 422 yards and 34.4 points per game again, but it'll be
effective.
Defense - It's not going to be anywhere near the killer D of the
last few seasons with only four returning starters, but it's not going
to fall off the map. It all begins and ends with one of the nation's
best linebacking corps led by Butkus Award winner Paul Posluszny, who's
expected to be fine after suffering a knee injury in the Orange Bowl.
Tim Shaw and Dan Connor are tremendous producers who should get plenty
of all-star honors. The secondary needs to be completely replaced, but
the corners should be fine with Justin King getting the starting nod.
Jay Alford is an all-star tackle who'll lead a decent line that should
get better as the year goes on.
This
season will be a success if …
PSU
finishes second in the Big Ten race. It’s not a good enough team to get
through the conference season unscathed, but there won’t be much of a
slip, if any.
Predicted record:
9-3
Conf. record: 5-3
Best
Player:
OT Joe
Thomas, Sr.
Offense
- Only
three starters return to the nation's 14th best scoring offense, but
things aren't all that bad with a typically enormous Badger line led by
All-America tackle Joe Thomas and underrated quarterback John Stocco
back for his third season as the starter. After that, things are up in
the air with a gigantic group of running backs looking to find a number
one runner to replace Brian Calhoun and a lightning fast receiving corps
with only three catches last year among the top three prospects.
Defense - The potential is there for a fantastic season if
everyone stays healthy and all the young players live up to their
talent. The defensive line went through major problems last year thanks
to injuries and inexperience, but all the pains will pay off with a
deep, experienced, and very, very good group returning with several
potential all-star talents led by tackle Nick Hayden. The back seven has
rock-solid experience in the middle with Mark Zalewski at linebacker and
safeties Joe Stellmacher and Roderick Rogers at safety. There's a flashy
young talent on the outside needing sophomore corners Jack Okegwuonu and
Allen Langford to stay healthy and sophomore outside linebackers DeAndre
Levy and Jonathan Casillas to be major disruptive forces.
This
season will be a success if …
UW wins at
least a share of the Big Ten title. There are way too many question
marks to ask for an unbeaten season, but the talent is good enough and
the schedule is relatively easy.
Predicted record:
8-4
Conf. record: 4-4
Best
Player:
QB
Drew Stanton, Sr.
Offense
- The
offense wasn't always consistent after hitting the wall at some strange
times, but it should be among the most explosive in the nation after
finishing fifth in total yards and 18th in scoring. Quarterback Drew
Stanton leads the tremendous array of skill players with outstanding
veteran receivers to work with to go along with a group of running backs
that bring a nice combination of lightning speed and good power. The
line isn't anything special, but it just has to be merely decent for all
the stars to shine.
Defense - With one of the nation's best offenses to work with,
all the defense has to do is not be awful. It's a D that would like to
attack and be ultra-aggressive, but it didn't generate any sort of a
pass rush last season and didn't come up with nearly enough takeaways
for head coach John L. Smith's liking. The line should be a bit more
athletic, but it'll be slightly undersized on the ends. All three
starters return to a linebacking corps that has to be more disruptive.
Safety Greg Cooper moves to corner, but that means Otis Wiley and JUCO
transfer Nehemiah Warrick have to shine as the new starting safeties.
This
season will be a success if …
the Spartans win nine games and goes to a bowl. This is hardly a
great team, but there's no excuse to not win at least eight with a win
over a power like Ohio State or Notre Dame thrown in there.
Predicted record:
7-6
Conf. record: 3-5
Best
Player:
WR
Dorien Bryant, Jr.
Offense
- The
starters should be excellent with enough experience and talent returning
to put up big numbers on everyone in the Big Ten. However, things could
go in the tank in a big hurry if there's a massive rash of injuries with
no experienced depth anywhere. The starting five on the offensive line,
which allowed a mere nine sacks last year, should be among the best in
the Big Ten, Kory Sheets is a great looking young back, and Dorien
Bryant and Kyle Ingraham (assuming he's back after being suspended due
to academic problems) will form one of the league's best 1-2 receiving
punches. Curtis Painter is a great running quarterback who needs to
fine-tune his mechanics. New offensive coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher,
formerly of Florida and Illinois, will do wonders with the quarterbacks.
Defense - The defense was one of the 2005 season's biggest
disasters thanks to a porous secondary that never had a reliable
starting foursome and finished last in the Big Ten. There are plenty of
good defensive back prospects, but it's still a shaky situation going
into the season needing several untested prospects to instantly become
reliable playmakers. The front seven should be fine as long as everyone
stays healthy early on with pass rushers needing to emerge to replace
Rob Ninkovich and Ray Edwards. The linebacking corps won't have any
all-stars, but it'll produce.
This
season will be a success if …
Purdue wins
eight games. The 13-game schedule has plenty of rough patches, but there
are only six games against bowl teams from last year.
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 2-6
Best
Player:
RB
Pierre Thomas, Sr.
Offense
-
Things didn't work out so hot in the first year under Ron Zook and
offensive coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher finishing last in the Big Ten in
scoring averaging 17 points per game, but even though Zaunbrecher left
for Purdue there's hope for a night-and-day improvement depending on the
emergence of a line that did next to nothing last year. Now it's up to
former Akron coordinator Jim Pry to make the attack more potent. The
addition of Oklahoma transfer Akim Millington at tackle boosts an
experienced line that should be able to open more holes for the solid
1-2 rushing punch of Pierre Thomas and E.B. Halsey. The quarterbacks
should finally have time to breathe and push the ball downfield more to
the speedy young receiving corps, but who will the number one passer be?
Tim Brasic is the incumbent, but true freshmen Isiah Williams and Ben
McGee will join three others to try to take over.
Defense - The Illini defense showed heart and never gave up, but
it was horrible with several players not fitting what Ron Zook and
defensive coordinator Vince Okruch want to do. Speed is at a premium,
and it'll take some more growing pains for the fast, young defenders to
get their feet wet. Being more physical is priority one after getting
shoved all over the place last year finishing with the nation's worst
run defense. The line will be the biggest problem until halfway through
the season, but there are several linebacker options and good safeties.
This
season will be a success if …
Illinois
wins five games. Getting to six and a bowl game might be a little too
much to ask out of a team that still needs a few years to emerge.
Predicted record:
5-7
Conf. record: 2-6
Best
Player:
TE
Matt Spaeth, Sr.
Offense
-
Offensive coordinator Mitch Browning has his work cut out for him and
the Gopher system. After finishing seventh in the nation in total
offense, tenth in scoring and third in rushing, Minnesota has to replace
star tailback Laurence Maroney and, possibly, Gary Russell, who's
doubtful thanks to academic issues. There's almost no depth anywhere,
but the starters should be solid as long as they're healthy. Amir Pinnix
is a small, quick back who'll carry the load early on, while the passing
game should be serviceable with veteran quarterback Bryan Cupito back
along with starting wideouts Ernie Wheelwright and Logan Payne. The
whole is better than the sum of the parts on the line.
Defense - The Gopher D always tries hard and it has its moments,
but it doesn't have the talent or athleticism to hang with the better
offenses. The front four is undersized and the back seven is a bit slow,
so it's a full defensive effort to keep the dam from breaking. Sometimes
it works, sometimes it gets ugly. Sophomores Steve Davis and end and
Dominic Jones at safety are good young players to build around, while
there are enough veterans and enough experience to hope for a more
consistent season.
This
season will be a success if …
Minnesota
wins seven games and goes to another bowl. There are enough layups to
have a nice base of four wins, and some upsets have to come.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 1-7
Best
Player:
WR
James Hardy, Soph.
Offense
- Head
coach Terry Hoeppner knows how to get offensive production, and there
should be more in his second year with a veteran quarterback in Blake
Powers and, arguably, the best receiving corps IU has ever had led by
6-7 James Hardy. There's speed at running back, but not a lot of proven
production. The line has nice young players to build around, but no
depth. Expect the wide-open, four-wide attack to be more consistent and
occasionally explode.
Defense - The IU defense wasn't exactly a thing of beauty last
year, but it wasn't all that bad in the first half of the season. And
then the roof caved in allowing 41, 46, 42, 41 and 41 points over the
final five games. All four starters return to a decent secondary, but
there are wholesale changes being made on the front seven. Playing to
the personnel, the linebacking corps is woefully undersized, but very,
very fast. It'll be in charge of roaming around and being disruptive,
while the big defensive line concentrates on stopping the run.
This
season will be a success if …
IU wins six
games. It's a tall, tall, tall order for such a young team and with so
many new starters.
Predicted record:
4-8
Conf. record: 1-7
Best
Player:
RB
Tyrell Sutton, Soph.
Offense
- It's
Garrick McGee's offense now taking over for Mike Dunbar, but don't
expect many big changes from last year with the exception of more
two-back sets to get Terrell Jordan in the backfield at the same time as
franchise runner Tyrell Sutton. The offensive line will be one of the
best in the Big Ten with an anonymous group of rock-solid starters and
helped by the return of center Trevor Rees after missing last year with
academic issues. The receiving corps gets top-target Shaun Herbert back
to lead the young but big group that should allow the offense to push it
downfield a bit more. The real concern is at quarterback where C.J.
Bacher, Andrew Brewer and Mike Kafka will try to replace four-year
starter Brett Basanez.
Defense - The good: Northwestern forced 30 turnovers last year
bailing itself out of several big jams, and it should do so again with
nine returning starters. The bad: There might not be much improvement to
a run defense didn't stop anyone last year and a total D that finished
dead last in the nation allowing 480 yards and 34 points per game. The
line is very big and very, very young. Consider it a work in progress
outside of rising star Kevin Mims at one end. A pass rush has to be
generated from somewhere, possibly from veteran outside linebackers Adam
Kadela and Nick Roach, while the middle should be fine even after the
loss of tackling machine Tim McGarigle. The secondary could surprise if
speedy corner Marquice Cole grows into an All-Big Ten caliber playmaker
and the safeties improve with the return of Bryan Heinz, but the second
corner spot will be an Achilles heel all season long.
This
season will be a success if …
the
Wildcats win seven games and go back to a bowl, but with the tragic
death of head coach Randy Walker, who knows what shape the program will
be in.