2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 11
Game of the Week
Pittsburgh (9-1) at West Virginia (7-3),7:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, November 27
Why to watch: Although the 102nd edition of the Backyard Brawl will have no bearing on the Big East race, don’t expect that to thwart the enthusiasm of the crowd in Morgantown. This is perennially one of the most heated rivalries in America. In the big picture, Pittsburgh doesn’t have to have this game in order to achieve all of its 2009 goals. Winners of six straight, the Panthers’ make-or-break game for the Big East championship won’t happen until next weekend when No. 5 Cincinnati visits. Still, there’s never a shortage of motivation when West Virginia is on the other sideline. The Mountaineers fell out of the conference race with a pair of road losses in the last three games. They can get some small consolation and possibly a better bowl game by ending Pitt’s two-month winning streak.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Pat White is no longer in West Virginia. Put differently, this is a very ordinary Mountaineer offense. Even with Marshall and Louisville on the schedule, it’s averaged just 22 points over the last five games and failed to get much out of the passing attack. The Panthers will keep that trend going on Friday. With one of the deepest and most talented front sevens around, they lead the country in sacks and have been dynamite in run defense. West Virginia is young up front, which will be a particular problem versus linemen Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard, and Mick Williams. The Mountaineers have had a problem with turnovers, especially when Jarrett Brown is flushed from the pocket. Who is going to cover Jonathan Baldwin, the Panthers’ budding star at receiver? The ‘eers have shown a propensity for breakdowns against big, imposing pass-catchers.
Why West Virginia might win: If you stop the run, say buh-bye to the balance in the Pittsburgh offense. The Mountaineers harbor a defense that’s capable of pulling it off. If you’re playing the Panthers, you want to slow down rookie sensation Dion Lewis and force QB Bill Stull to have to play beyond his ability. The senior has been terrific this fall, but he’s more of a complement than a focal point. West Virginia is built around its run defenders, like Chris Neild and Scooter Berry up front and Pat Lazear, Reed Williams, and J.T. Thomas at linebacker. You cannot underestimate the importance of being at home in a rivalry game of this magnitude.
Who to watch: Neither offense figures to run away and hide in this one, putting an even greater emphasis on the game-within-the-game between Lewis and West Virginia jackrabbit Noel Devine. While both are gifted in their own unique ways, Devine has an edge from having seen this rivalry up close in each of the last two seasons. Lewis hasn’t been held below 100 yards in almost two months, but how will he react to playing in Milan Puskar Stadium for the first time? For that matter, how will the ankle that Devine sprained earlier in the month be now that he’s had time to rest?
What will happen: Although no one has beaten West Virginia in Morgantown this season, Pitt is a much better team than the last five victims. The Panthers are doing the basic things, like blocking and tackling, better than at any point in Dave Wannstedt’s tenure. And, on the flip side, when was the last time the Mountaineers were sharp for 60 minutes? It’s been a while. In a physical, low-scoring scrum befitting of the Backyard Brawl, Pitt will improve to 4-1 in tight games, holding on behind the play of the defense and three Dan Hutchins field goals.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 23 … West Virginia 19 ... Line: Pittsburgh -1
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) …
4
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Rutgers (7-3) at Louisville (4-7),11:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, November 27
Why to watch: Just when you think you’ve got Rutgers pegged, it goes out and gets pounded by short-handed Syracuse, 31-13, to snap a three-game losing streak. Go figure. The Scarlet Knights, having been belted in the gut unexpectedly, will look to regroup in time to finish the regular season on a positive note and improve their position in the Big East bowl hierarchy. Louisville officially exited the ranks of the postseason contenders, though it hasn’t seriously been in the mix at any point in the season. Staring down the barrel of a third consecutive bowl-less campaign, it’s getting harder and harder to see why athletic director Tom Jurich would bring Steve Kragthorpe back for a fourth year.
Why Rutgers might win: Although the Scarlet Knight defense did not play well in the loss to Syracuse, don’t expect that to become a trend under Greg Schiano. Rutgers is still allowing only 316 yards and 17 points a game, presenting a stiff challenge for Louisville’s Big East-worst attack. The Cards are running low on playmakers, and Adam Froman has not proven to be the answer behind center. Of course, it hasn’t helped that his protection is 113th nationally in sacks allowed. The Knights will capitalize with speed rushers George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny, who’ve combined for 14 sacks and helped fuel a unit driven by takeaways and game-changing plays.
Why Louisville might win: The Cards will have problems putting up points, but then again, so will the Scarlet Knights, which managed just 130 total yards last weekend. Plus, rookie QB Tom Savage is coming off a dreadful performance, exacerbated by awful pass protection, and might not have the services of top receiver Tim Brown. Louisville can focus on stopping RB Joe Martinek with linebackers Chris Campa and Jon Dempsey, while occasionally mixing in some blitz. Up front, Rutgers needs to confront William Savoy and L.D. Scott, the Cards’ two best natural pass rushers.
Who to watch: This is an important game for Savage, who doesn’t want to go into his first offseason with any baggage or bad vibes. If Brown is unavailable or limited by his bum ankle, it’ll be up to true freshman Mohamed Sanu to support his quarterback and accept a bigger role in the passing game. The future star at receiver in Piscataway, he might be up to the challenge, already making 40 receptions for 427 yards and a touchdown in his debut season.
What will happen: It figures to be a tough week for Rutgers, which won’t be feeling the holiday spirit from Schiano or his assistants. Kragthorpe, on the other hand, hasn’t been able to connect with kids in some time, and it’s not about to start in the regular season finale. The Knights will gut out a visually unappealing victory, getting a stout effort from the defense and a rebound performance from Martinek on the ground.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 26 … Louisville 16 ... Line: Rutgers -4
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2
Illinois (3-7) at Cincinnati (10-0),12:00 EST, ABC, Friday, November 27
Why to watch: Although a visit from Illinois will have no impact on Cincinnati’s quest to win the Big East title, the unbeaten program is still a break or two from playing for a national championship; provided it wins the final two regular season games, of course. The No. 5 Bearcats have been one of this year’s biggest surprises, overcoming wholesale changes on defense and an injury to star QB Tony Pike to become a hit on a national level. While Illinois has played better recently, it’s been a case of too little, too late for the Big Ten’s biggest disappointment. Resigned to the role of spoiler over the next two weekends, the Illini will look to build some momentum for 2010 while helping make a case for head coach Ron Zook to be back on the sidelines for another year.
Why Illinois might win: Whatever tightness existed during league play and a nasty five-game losing streak is now long gone. The Illini can relax and let its athletes do their thing on Friday. All of the pressure is on Cincinnati. After sitting out the Northwestern game with an ankle injury, QB Juice Williams is expected back, which is good news for an offense that needs his playmaking ability on the field. Before the injury, Illinois had scored 73 points in consecutive games with Michigan and Minnesota, getting playmakers, like backs Mikel Leshoure and Jason Ford, more involved with the attack. The last time the Bearcats faced a deep backfield, Connecticut slapped 45 points on them.
Why Cincinnati might win: The young Illinois defense just hasn’t been very good this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in every major statistical category. Life won’t get any easier with a trip to Nippert Stadium. Whether it’s been Pike or Zach Collaros at the helm, the Bearcat offense has hummed to 478 yards and 38 points a game. The passing game will shred the Illini secondary and linebackers, which have had issues all season against lesser attacks and lesser receivers than Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. Who’s going to stop DE Ricardo Mathews and a Cincy D that leads the nation in tackles for loss? Don’t bet on Illinois, which is next to last in the Big Ten in sacks allowed.
Who to watch: While the passing attack takes center in the Queen City, Cincinnati is beginning to get more help on the ground, troubling news for opposing defenses. The catalyst has been Isaiah Pead, who has started to flash some of the moves and potential that made him such a coveted recruit for the Bearcats. A steady force, with an almost seven-yard per carry average, he’s coming off a career-best 175-yard night against West Virginia.
What will happen: With Collaros having off-field issues and Brian Kelly fending off incessant questions about Notre Dame, there are distractions that could trip up Cincinnati. Illinois, however, will not. The Illini simply doesn’t have enough stoppers on defense to corral a Bearcat offense that’s well-rested, well-oiled, and well-prepared. With a larger TV audience on hand for the third straight game, Cincy will crush its Big Ten visitor and start preparing for the game of the year at Pittsburgh.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 35 … Illinois 16 ... Line: Cincinnati -18
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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Syracuse (4-7) at Connecticut (5-5),12:00 EST, Saturday, November 28
Why to watch: Fresh off inspirational upsets, both Syracuse and Connecticut enter this weekend’s game in East Hartford with the wind at their backs. The Huskies, hard-luck losers throughout the season, finally wound up on the winning end of a close game, defeating Notre Dame in South Bend, 33-30, in double-overtime. More than just a seminal moment in the program’s history, it was also the first victory since the murder of CB Jasper Howard and a turning point in the quest for bowl eligibility. The Orange showed a ton of perseverance and resiliency, shocking No. 25 Rutgers, 31-13, in a game that was every bit as one-sided as the score indicated. Although the school’s bowl hopes have been dashed, Saturday’s effort spoke volumes about the motivational job being done by rookie coach Doug Marrone, and will serve as a building block for 2010.
Why Syracuse might win: Despite enduring all kinds of injuries, the strength of the entire Orange team continues to be the run defense, which will be especially handy versus conservative Connecticut. The Huskies need to establish the run to be successful, but that won’t be so easy against a team yielding just 2.8 yards a carry and 92 yards a game. While you can label them overachievers, the way DE Chandler Jones, linebackers Doug Hogue and E.J. Carter, and S Mike Holmes are making plays all over the field, Connecticut will be forced to throw more than it typically prefers.
Why Connecticut might win: It’s hard to believe, but Syracuse has played just three outdoor games all year. And in those three games, it’s averaged just nine points, failing to get much going in the passing game. Figure on similar results this weekend, as the Huskies dig in and try to get back over .500. The Orange offense revolves around backs Delone Carter and Antwon Bailey, who’ll find little running room now that Scott Lutrus is back in the groove, joining Lawrence Wilson and Greg Lloyd to help give Connecticut one of the Big East’s best collections of linebackers. While the Huskies are most vulnerable through the air, Syracuse doesn’t have the big-play receivers or downfield passer to capitalize.
Who to watch: The job of softening up that underrated Syracuse front seven belongs to the Connecticut tandem of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, who have been dynamite throughout the season. Sharing the feature role, depending on who has the hot hand, each is closing in on 1,000 yards, which wears down defenses late in games. While the Orange can be tough against the run, it hasn’t faced a one-two punch this potent all year.
What will happen: Now that Syracuse has had its big upset of a ranked team, it’s back to reality for the Orange. With some rare momentum this season, Connecticut will build on it with a workmanlike, less dramatic victory, leaning on the defense and the running of Todman and Dixon to not be threatened beyond halftime.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 27 … Syracuse 13 ... Line: Connecticut -12
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 1.5
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Miami (8-3) at South Florida (7-3), 3:30 EST, Saturday, ABC, November 28
Why to watch: Having already toppled Florida State back on Sept. 26, South Florida has a chance to send shockwaves throughout the region with another win over one of the state’s Big 3 programs. The Bulls became bowl-eligible by beating Louisville a week ago, but this week’s visit from Miami trumps any St. Petersburg or International Bowl on so many levels. Beat the ‘Canes, and only top-ranked Florida would stand between USF claiming it’s the Sunshine State’s top team of 2009. Can you say recruiting windfall? Miami will have to remain focused this week, knowing it has little to gain in Tampa. Yeah, a better bowl destination could be at stake, but it won’t be the BCS variety, and after zooming past Duke a week ago, 34-16, it can’t do better than second place tie in the ACC Coastal Division. Since peaking at No. 8 in the rankings a month ago, the Hurricanes have shown their youth with an inconsistent and mistake-filled November.
Why Miami might win: Yeah, Jacory Harris needs to cut down on his turnovers, but the Hurricane offense continues to churn out the yards and the points when he’s not making mistakes. The sophomore is surrounded by a spate of talented skill position players, who have the speed and athleticism to really challenge the South Florida defenders. Graig Cooper, Javarris James, and Damien Berry give the running game three viable options to ensure that no one is gassed in the final 30 minutes. Leonard Hankerson has evolved into Miami’s top receiver, and TE Jimmy Graham, a former basketball player, has become a more consistent threat in the passing game.
Why South Florida might win: Might the Bulls have the more dangerous quarterback in this game? The reality is that Harris has thrown 17 interceptions, including one in all but two games this season. He’ll have more problems in the face of the athletic and opportunistic South Florida D that leads the Big East in pass efficiency defense. With George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul up front, Kion Wilson in the middle, and Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy in the secondary, the Bulls have all-star caliber defenders at each level. On the other hand, B.J. Daniels is going up against an ordinary ‘Cane defense that’s been hampered by injuries and is ninth in the ACC in sacks. Plus, he’s coming off a heroic effort in the Louisville win, becoming the first quarterback in Big East history to throw for 300 yards and run for 100 more on the same day.
Who to watch: This game boils down to the two young quarterbacks, who, along with Florida’s John Brantley and Florida State’s Christian Ponder, will dominate headlines in the state again next year. While Daniels has flashed all of the inconsistency you’d expect from a redshirt freshman, Harris has regressed in his second year, forcing Randy Shannon to come to his defense. If he gets outplayed by a lesser-known hurler from South Florida, the hand-wringing and eye-rolling will reach a new level around Coral Gables.
What will happen: While both teams will be motivated on Saturday afternoon, South Florida’s intensity and want-to will be off the charts. This game really matters in Tampa, and it’ll show in the effort of the Bulls. It’s been a while since Miami has looked sharp for 60 minutes, so it’s ripe for the upset. USF will harass Harris all day, forcing him into a couple of costly picks that give Daniels short-field opportunities. With one final chance to win it late, the ‘Canes will get stuffed by the South Florida D, bringing thousands of fans out of the stands and on to the field at Raymond James Stadium.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 27 … Miami 24 ... Line: Miami -7
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3
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