Big Ten Fearless Predictions - 2009

Big Ten Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game

2009 Big Ten Fearless Predictions

Week 14 ... Dec. 5 Games

Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota
Northwestern | Ohio State | Penn State | Purdue | Wisconsin  
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Game of the Week

Wisconsin (8-3) at Hawaii (6-6), 11:30 EST, Saturday, December 5, ESPN2

Why to watch: You’ve had a full day of big college football games. In fact, you’ve had a big season of college football, but there’s just one more regular season game with this late night battle, and it should be interesting. Hawaii was left for dead on Halloween following a loss to Nevada with a 2-6 record and needing to be perfect the rest of the way to get to a bowl game. But after winning four straight, including a key 24-17 battle over Navy last week, the Warriors can get one more game at home with a win. Yes, the win over the Midshipmen was big, but the other three victories came against Utah State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State, the three worst teams in the WAC. For Wisconsin, this is like a pre-bowl, bowl trip. With a win, the Badgers will most likely be playing in the Outback Bowl against Auburn, but they don’t want to hurt their chances for a New Year’s Day game with a clunker. After a poor performance in a loss to Northwestern two weeks ago, the team should be focused despite the long trip.
Why Wisconsin might win: Wisconsin’s offensive line should be able to pound away on the Hawaii defensive front all game long. 104th in the nation in run defense, the Warriors look bad on paper, but they haven’t been too miserable against good ground games and kept Navy under wraps, relatively, last week. Wisconsin should be able to go with its fast ball and run John Clay, Zach Brown, and Montee Ball over and over and over while controlling the time of possession. The Badgers have enough of a pass rush to get into the backfield and give Bryan Moniz some problems.
Why Hawaii might win: Watch out. Wisconsin has a bad, bad, bad habit of giving up too big a cushion on the corners. This allowed Fresno State to almost pull off the win earlier in the year, and it let Northwestern pull off the upset two weeks ago. Hawaii should be able to dink and dunk to its hearts’ content, and while there might not be too many big plays happening down the field, watch out for the Badgers to give up over 300 yards through the air and be in for a scare for a time.
Who to watch: Hawaii, meet O’Brien Schofield. The best pass rusher in the Big Ten this season isn’t that big, but he has a lightning quick first step and is tremendous at making big plays in the backfield with 20.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks, and 55 tackles on the year. The Hawaii pass protection has been an issue, and focus one will be on Schofield meaning the rest of the Badger line should be able to find its way into the backfield.
What will happen: Hawaii will throw for over 300, Wisconsin will run for close to 300, and the Badgers will get a win that will prove to be far more challenging than it might like.
CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 38 ... Hawaii 24 ... Line: Wisconsin -11.5
Must See Rating: (Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show 5 … Avatar 1) … 2.5
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Fresno State (7-4) at Illinois (3-8), 12:30 EST, Saturday, December 5, Big Ten Network

Why to watch: It’s the Illinois season that just won’t die. The year started out miserable, with a big loss to Missouri, stayed bad, and just keeps going on as Illinois gets to host Fresno State to play out the string. The Bulldogs are going bowling, and while they’re set as the WAC’s No. 3 team, head coach Pat Hill is making sure his squad takes this game very seriously. Hill lives for beating teams from the BCS, and this is a great chance to get one for the résumé after losing to Cincinnati and Wisconsin earlier this year. Illinois might not have much to play for, but after looking better over the last month of the season with wins over Michigan and Minnesota, to go along with good battles in losses to Northwestern and Cincinnati, sending the seniors out with a win would ease some of the pain.
Why Fresno State might win: The Illinois defense is miserable. Fresno State’s passing game is efficient and not bad at coming up with the short to midrange throws to pick apart secondaries that provide a cushion. Cincinnati’s Tony Pike was able to destroy the Illini last week for 399 yards and six touchdown passes, and while Fresno State’s Ryan Colburn isn’t going to be quite that strong, he has the targets to work with to come up with a big day. Illinois is 100th in the nation in pass efficiency defense, while has the offensive balance to roll by air or land.
Why Illinois might win: It’s not exactly balmy in Fresno this week, but on Saturday the expected high is 62 with a few clouds. The high in Champaign, Illinois on Saturday is expected to be around 34 at gametime. Fresno State isn’t a soft team, it has a Big Ten style running game and isn’t afraid to use its power, but it’s going to be cold. The Bulldog defense doesn’t force turnovers, while the offense has given it away at times in bunches; the mediocre Illini offense has to take advantage. The bigger problem will be a run defense that doesn’t get into the backfield and gives up over 200 yards per game. If you can’t get to the Illinois spread running game behind the line, there will be problems. Nevada’s spread came up with 461 yards and seven scores.
Who to watch: Back in the mix is the nation’s No. 1 rusher, Ryan Mathews, who missed the Louisiana Tech game, and most of the Nevada debacle, with a concussion. Before getting knocked out, he had rushed for 10 yards or more in every game and was one of the nation’s premier home run hitters with 1,491 yards and 14 touchdowns on a mere 213 carries. On the other side, this is the final game for Illinois QB Juice Williams, and most likely, WR Arrelious Benn. Williams will be out of eligibility after a partly successful, partly unfulfilling career, while Benn will likely be a first round draft pick despite his disappointing junior season. Williams was solid against Cincinnati with 282 passing yards and three scores, to go along with 451 rushing yards, while Benn is still trying to come up with his first big explosive game this year. His best game was a nine-catch, 95-yard day against Indiana, and he has only scored once on the year.
What will happen: The Fresno State defense will get destroyed by an Illinois ground game that will come up with well over 300 yards. Mathews will run for 200, but it won’t be enough to overcome Senior Day. It might not be a game on the radar, but it’ll be fun.
CFN Prediction: Illinois 38 … Fresno State 34 ... Line: Illinois -1
Must See Rating: (Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show 5 … Avatar 1) … 2.5
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